Doc's Friday Public Action Report
by Trevor Whenham - 11/02/2007
It's going to be a different Public Action Report than we have seen in recent weeks. Last week we looked at four games and pointed out both the Connecticut win over South Florida and the surprising Miami cover against the Giants in London. Most weeks recently we have seen four or five games of interest. This week there is only one game with a large contrary line move, but there are an unprecedented nine games that fit the criteria. Instead of arbitrarily deciding which of those nine games to talk about, I will briefly hit on all of them.
Nebraska (+20.5) at Kansas (Saturday, Nov. 3, 12:30 p.m.) - This is the one game that has moved significantly this week. Betting volume is reasonably high, and about two-thirds of those bets have been placed on Nebraska. Despite that support, the line opened at 16.5 and has moved all the way to 20.5. It isn't that surprising that the books are happy to increase their exposure to Nebraska - the Huskers are playing without their starting QB and are just 2-7 ATS, while Kansas is 7-0 ATS and on a major and surprising roll.
Maryland (+3) at North Carolina (Saturday, Nov. 3, 3:45 p.m.) - Approximately 68 percent of bets have been placed on Maryland, yet their line opened at two, is at 2.5 across the board, and can be found at three. That indicates that North Carolina is worthy of attention. The Tar Heels are 3-1 ATS in their last four, but have been favored just once this year, and they did not win. Maryland is 2-5 ATS.
Michigan (-4) at Michigan State (Saturday, Nov. 3, 3:30 p.m.) - Not surprisingly, the surging Wolverines have drawn 86 percent of the bets in this game. What is a bit surprising then, is that the line opened at 4.5 and has moved to four. Much to my chagrin, that means I have to pay attention to the Spartans. Both teams have been similar against the spread - 5-3 for Michigan, and 5-4 for Michigan State.
Louisiana Tech (-3.5) at Idaho (Saturday, Nov. 3, 5:00 p.m.) - When a 3-5 team visits one that is 1-8 you just know that it isn't going to be a good game. That's reflected in the relatively low bet volume. Despite the apathy, though, the movement is interesting. This week 71 percent of bettors are on Louisiana Tech, yet the line opened at four and has dropped a half point. That makes Idaho, which has been kinder to their bettors than their record indicates at 3-5 ATS, a team to watch.
Missouri (-3.5) at Colorado (Saturday, Nov. 3, 6:30 p.m.) - Chase Daniel and the somewhat surprising Missouri Tigers head to Colorado to face the very surprising Buffaloes. A total of 83 percent of bettors believe in the Tigers, and the books are moving the lines to encourage that attention. The line opened at 4.5, and is now available at 3.5. That points our focus to the Dan and Cody Hawkins show.
Wake Forest (pick) at Virginia (Saturday, Nov. 3, 12:00 p.m.) - The bettors love the Demon Deacons. Well, 73 percent of them anyway. The line opened with Wake Forest favored by 1.5 and has dropped down to even, though. The Cavaliers have won all four of their games at home this year, and the books seem to believe that they will do it again this weekend.
Southern Mississippi (-10.5) at Alabama-Birmingham (Saturday, Nov. 3, 7:00 p.m.) - Brett Favre's alma mater has received 86 percent of the betting attention, but the books are happy to take more action on them. Southern Mississippi opened as 11-point favorites, and have dropped down to 10.5. Though that's a small move, it's clear that the books don't fear action on the Golden Eagles. Take a look at UAB.
Middle Tennessee State (-3.5) at UL Monroe (Saturday, Nov. 3, 7:00 p.m.) - It's hard to get excited about a battle between Sun Belt also-rans, but the line movement means we have to at least pay attention to it. Three-quarters of bets placed on this game have been on Middle Tennessee State, but we are pointed at UL Monroe because the line has moved from 4.5 to 3.5.
Carolina Panthers (+4) at Tennessee Titans (Sunday, Nov. 4, 1:00 p.m.) - Two-thirds of the public like the Titans, but the books don't seem particularly overwhelmed by them and their lame offense. Vince Young and company opened up favored by six points at home, but that line has shifted down to four despite the betting attention on the Titans. That means that either the books don't like Tennessee at this spread, or the smart money is moving onto Carolina. Either way, this means you have to consider betting on Carolina.