Exercise Caution With Mid-Week Bets
by Indian Cowboy - 10/08/2008
With the WNBA season ending and baseball games becoming few-and-far-between, it seems the betting landscape is going to become barren during the week before we get to Thursday night football. And even on those weeknights, there are only a few games to bet on. But you have to look at the week's wagering opportunities in a broader perspective. We are all in this to make a profit in the long-term, so don't feel like you have to wager every day. There will be plenty of options over the weekend and professional bettors never make a play just to have "action".
Instead of forcing a play early on in the week, why not just wait later in the week for much better value? After all, there are a ton of games during the weekend and this puts the oddsmakers at a disadvantage because they don't have the time that we do to handicap the individual games. However, they ARE the oddsmakers for a reason and their livelihood depends on setting a solid line and taking in a decent hold percentage. They will make mistakes, and that is when we find value. But when there are only a few games in one night they have more of an opportunity to set the line solidly. However, you have nearly 100 options between sides and totals on Saturday. On Sunday you have nearly 50 options when considering all the sides and totals in the NFL games. Why do you have to wager early in the week on a crappy game when you can wait for gems and incredible value later in the week?
Now, granted, if you see an opportunity to fade the public or a much better team facing off against a weaker team during the week, then you should certainly make the wager. I just ask you to pace yourself through the course of the week rather than load up early in the week and get yourself in an early hole.
Look at it this way: You are playing the card game "War". Would you take the first 10 cards that are available to you? (Remember in War, the higher the card, the better. So, a 10 defeats a six and a Queen defeats a Jack etc...). Or, would you take the 10 highest cards out of 20 possible cards that were available to you? You would gladly choose the 10 highest out of the 20 choices, right? After all, you would have more choices to choose from and therefore be able to choose cards of higher value. In short, give yourself options and ride the best options of the week. Thus, do not necessarily wager the first ten options that come forth and get into an early hole. By doing so, you end up wagering more than you are comfortable with later in the week. In essence, be on the offense rather than defense as the week progresses. Each wager you have is a weapon against your bookie. Do you not want your best weapons through the course of the week rather than the first 10 weapons that become available?