The AP Top 25 Vs. the Odds Poll
by Matt Foust - 08/27/2008
Everybody waits with anticipation for the AP Top 25 to be unveiled; it has historically been viewed as the best indicator of what can be expected of teams during the season. However, is it the most accurate representation of college football's elite? It could be argued that the sportbooks are a better gauge of how a season will unfold. Just for grins, let's look at the AP Top 25 and see how it compares to the 25 teams BetUS has given the least favorable National Championship odds. The team's ranking for the futures odds poll is in parentheses.
1. (4) Georgia: The No. 1-ranked Bulldogs are not even favored to win the SEC at +150 odds. Florida is getting +125 odds to win the conference title. Georgia is ranked fourth in National Championship odds at +750, a drop of three positions.
2. (2) Ohio State: The Buckeyes are favored to win the Big Ten at -200 odds, and they maintain their second-place AP ranking in the odds poll as well at +450.
3. (1) USC: The Trojans move from No. 3 to No. 1 in the odds poll. They are receiving the least favorable odds to win the BCS Championship at +300.
4. (5) Oklahoma: The Sooners are favored to win the Big 12 Championship at +150 odds. They drop to the fifth spot in the odds poll, though, at +750 odds.
5. (3) Florida: The Gators jump from fifth in the AP poll to third in the odds poll. Urban Meyers' squad sits at +650 odds to win the National Championship.
6. (7) Missouri: The Tigers, like their Big 12 rivals Oklahoma, drop one spot in the odds poll at +1500.
7. (9) LSU: The Tigers are at -125 odds to win under nine games and they drop two spots to No. 9 in the odds poll at +2000.
8. (10) West Virginia: The Mountaineers, the favorite to win the Big East, drop two spots in the odds poll to No. 10 at +2000.
9. (11) Clemson: The Tigers are getting -160 odds to win over 9.5 games, but they still drop two spots to number 11 in the odds poll at +2200.
10. (12) Auburn: The Tigers are yet another top 10 club to fall in the odds poll. Auburn moves to No. 12 at +2500 odds.
11. (6) Texas: The Longhorns, who are getting +150 odds to win the Big 12 South, make a big jump in the odds poll. They go up five spots to No. 6 at +1200.
12. (17) Texas Tech: As expected, due to the tough competition in the Big 12 South, the Red Raiders drop in the odds poll, all the way back to the 17 spot at +5000.
13. (13) Wisconsin: The Badgers maintain their position at No. 13 in the odds poll. Wisconsin is listed at +3000 odds to win the BCS Championship.
14. (18) Kansas: The Jayhawks are yet another Big 12 team to plummet in the odds poll. KU drops four spots to 18 at +5000.
15. (19) Arizona State: The Sun Devils, who are at +105 odds to get over 8.5 wins, drop in the odds poll four places at +5000.
16. (22) Brigham Young: The Cougars, perhaps due to the conference they play in, drop six places in the odds poll to 22 at +6000.
17. (8) Virginia Tech: The Hokies are the biggest mover between the polls. They jump a huge nine spots all the way up to No. 8 at +1500.
18. (14) Tennessee: The Volunteers are another team that moves up in the odds poll, despite their +800 odds to win the SEC. Phil Fulmer's bunch goes to the No. 14 spot at +3000.
19. (15) South Florida: The Bulls, getting some respect after last season's strong run, move up four places in the odds poll to No. 15 (+3000 odds).
20. (16) Illinois: The Fighting Illini is another big mover, jumping up four spaces to No. 16 (+3500 odds).
21. (23) Oregon: The Ducks, which are getting -160 odds to win over eight games, drop two spots in the odds poll to No. 23 at +6000.
22. (20) Penn State: The Nittany Lions are another Big Ten school jumping up in the odds poll. Joe Paterno's team goes to No. 20 at +5000 odds.
23. (25) Wake Forest: The Demon Deacons nearly fall out of the Top 25 in the odds poll. They move to the final spot at +10000 odds.
24. (21) Alabama: The Crimson Tide, showing the strength of the SEC, jump three places in the odds poll to No. 21 at +5000.
25. (24) Pittsburgh: The Panthers, who are getting +550 odds to win the Big East, move up one spot in the odds poll to No. 24 at +8000.
Note: If teams were receiving the same odds, their odds poll ranking order was determined by their order in the Top 25. For example, while Georgia and Oklahoma are both receiving +750 odds to win the National Title, the Bulldogs stay ahead of the Sooners in the odds poll because they are ranked ahead of them in the AP poll.