NCAA and NFL Betting Trends From WagerWeb
by Matt Severance - 09/24/2008
Thanks to the folks at WagerWeb, I will give you a weekly look at how bettors on that site trended on college and NFL games each weekend. Hopefully this insight into how other bettors are wagering will provide you with a game plan of your own for each week.
First off, here is a look at last weekend's Top 5 action NCAA games on WagerWeb:
Georgia at Arizona St.: more than $115,000
LSU at Auburn: more than $100,000
Florida at Tennessee: more than $95,000
Fresno State at Toledo: more than $90,000
Alabama at Arkansas: more than $80,000
I glean two things from these numbers: SEC fans are obviously also the most rabid bettors, and people saw major value in Fresno State being only a seven-point favorite on the road at a MAC school.
All four of those SEC road teams were favored last week, and all four covered. Fresno State, which got a bandwagon full of bettors after its close home loss to Wisconsin the week before, did not cover at Toledo and was fortunate to even win the game.
Here were WagerWeb's most lopsided NCAA betting favorites last week:
Missouri 97 percent over Buffalo
Eastern Michigan 96 percent over Maryland
Purdue 92 percent over Central Michigan
Brigham Young 89 percent over Wyoming
Rutgers with 89 percent over Navy
That's four favorites and one underdog (Eastern Michigan), plus three games involving MAC schools. It was a good day for the dogs among those five, with Buffalo and Central Michigan covering and Navy winning outright. EMU would have covered if not for a late garbage TD by Maryland, while BYU shredded Wyoming and easily covered the 29-point spread.
Now a quick look at the games with the NFL action last week on WagerWeb and the most one-sided plays:
Dallas at Green Bay: more than $340,000
Pittsburgh at Philadelphia: more than $110,000
Oakland at Buffalo: more than $100,000
Miami at New England: more than $85,000
Buffalo 84 percent over Oakland
Chicago 81 percent over Tampa Bay
Philadelphia 76 percent over Pittsburgh
New England 69 percent over Miami
Carolina 63 percent over Minnesota
As expected, the Cowboys-Packers Sunday night game was the biggest play of the week, by more than triple. It's likely Dallas will reside near the top of all weekly action for much of the season. Meanwhile, all the action on Raiders-Bills is a bit surprising, but likely many jumped on Buffalo because Oakland's Darren McFadden was questionable leading up to the game. The Bills were 10-point favorites and barely won straight up, so that was a big loser for many people. The Bears and Pats also lost outright as home favorites, while no doubt many people chose Carolina over Minnesota due to the fact that Vikings RB Adrian Peterson was a game-time decision. You can bet that the Patriots will no longer be such a heavy play after the egg they laid last week against the Fins. The only game among the Top 5 one-sided plays to pay off was the Eagles holding serve at home against Pittsburgh.