UFC 122 Odds - Marquardt vs. Okami and Full Fight Card Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 11/11/2010
The UFC must not like Germans very much. If they really did like them then they would bring a much better card to Oberhausen, Germany, for the second UFC card in Deutschland. Hosting any UFC event is probably better than not having one, but the organization is putting forth the card with the least amount of star power they possibly could.
It’s no surprise, then, they aren’t even trying to sell this event on pay-per-view. Instead, it will be available for free on Spike TV on a same-day tape delay. Here’s how this underwhelming main card breaks down (all UFC odds are from Bodog):
Nate Marquardt (-250) vs. Yushin Okami (+190) - You can get a sense of just how underwhelming this card is if this is the main event. Don’t get me wrong - these are both solid middleweight guys who are relevant in the division. They just don’t have main event drawing power, and their match doesn’t offer the intrigue of a typical main event match.
Beyond the whining, though, there is a little bit to be interested in here. Marquardt is the better athlete, and is far more well-rounded as a fighter. That means that Okami will have to work hard to get into the situation where he excels - in the clinch. If Okami has his way then this won’t be an interesting fight - he’ll get top position and control it.
I think that the fight is a lot closer than the odds suggest. That alone is a reason to look at Okami. There is another, bigger reason, too. Okami has been training with Chael Sonnen for this fight. Sonnen is the last guy to beat Marquardt, so Okami will have some first hand insight into what it takes. That’s enough to take a shot on the underdog in my eyes.
Pick: Yushin Okami.
Jorge Rivera (-115) vs. Alessio Sakara (-115) - This isn’t going to be the most technically perfect fight on the card, but there is a good chance that it will be the most exciting.
Sakara loves nothing more than to throw punches like crazy. Rivera isn’t afraid to take a punch. This one will be a slugfest, and it likely won’t be a long one. Sakara is a bit more polished and athletic, and it would be easy to give him the nod. Rivera just doesn’t quit, though - like when he found a way to beat Nate Quarry.
Still, I give Sakara an edge if the fight ends early, and an edge in what I see is an unlikely event of a decision.
Pick: Alessio Sakara.
Dennis Siver (-140) vs. Andre Winner (+110) - The stakes are high for these two lightweights. The winner of this match will be in good standing to get a title shot sometime reasonably soon. That’s always important, but it is especially important now with the WEC merger about to happen. That means that the lightweight division is going to be much more crowded, and it will be easy for current fighters to get lost among them if they aren’t winning.
Winner lost in the finale of “The Ultimate Fighter 9,” but has mostly been progressing well since then. He’s hit a tough spot here, though.
Not only is Siver a very athletic, tough fighter, but he also lives and trains in Germany, so he will have the boost of the home crowd working hard for him. That always seems to be a big factor whenever the UFC leaves the States.
Siver is a little tougher, and he punches a little harder. That gives him the edge he’ll need here.
Pick: Dennis Siver.
Amir Sadollah (-365) vs. Peter Sobotta (+285) - Sobotta is another German, but I’m not sure that will be enough to get him over the top in this one.
He has lost two tough decisions in a row, and yet he is making what seems to be a step up in class here.
Sadollah needs to get back on track after a loss at UFC 114, but this is a good spot for him. He is more athletic and talented than Sobotta. If he can manage to keep his mind on track and not get cocky then he should be able to have his way in this one. He needs to find a way to take a step up to the next level, and a convincing win here would help.
I don’t love betting on any fighter who is this heavy of a favorite, but I don’t see a way to avoid it here.
Pick: Amir Sadollah.
Goran Reljic (-115) vs. Krzysztof Soszynski (-115) - Soszynski has an impossible name to spell, but I sure like watching him. He fights at different weights as needed, and he doesn’t do anything spectacular or fancy. He just puts his nose down and grinds away until he gets the result he is after. He’s the ultimate lunch bucket guy.
Reljic is a bit more polished. He is a very good striker, and he kicks guys in the head like he was born to do it. I don’t think that Reljic will be able to overwhelm Soszynski, but ultimately Reljic’s striking skills and his ability to mix things up will be enough to get a decision here.
Pick: Goran Reljic.
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