UFC 140 Odds and Betting Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 12/9/2011
The UFC returns to Toronto again on Saturday for UFC 140. The main event is one fans have been waiting for — another chance to see if Jon Jones can continue to live up to the impossible hype surrounding him.
No one has defended the light heavyweight title twice successfully since Chuck Liddell did it in 2006, so Jones could cap an impressive year in style with a win here. His fight with Lyoto Machida should be a great one, and that’s a good thing because the rest of the card isn’t the most interesting one ever imagined.
Here’s a look at how the main card shapes up with some UFC 140 betting predictions (all UFC 140 odds are from Bodog):
Light Heavyweight Championship - Jon Jones (-550) vs. Lyoto Machida (+375)
Let me say two things up front — this price doesn’t give Machida enough credit, and despite that I still can’t justify not picking Jones.
Jones has been as close to perfect as a fighter can be up to this point in his career. Machida will be able to show him some things he hasn’t seen yet, though.
The challenger is a very smart fighter — more so than anyone else that Jones has faced. He’s also incredibly patient, so Jones will have to be just as patient to avoid getting into a situation he can’t get out of.
The biggest problem Machida has here, though, is that he is at his best aggressively pursuing takedowns, and with the lethal kicking power and crazy length that Jones has it will be very hard for him to get those opportunities.
I look at this fight this way ultimately — if someone is going to expose Jones then Machida has as much chance as anyone, but I just don’t think Jones is going to be exposed.
Pick: Jon Jones
Frank Mir (-300) vs. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (+230)
I am as apathetic about this fight as it is possible to be about any fight.
These guys met at UFC 92 and Mir won decisively, so much like LSU and Alabama in college football, I don’t know what a rematch is going to prove. On top of that I don’t really trust the form of either fighter.
Nogueira won last time out, but age and injuries make it very likely that his best days are far behind. Mir has looked less than impressive in his last two wins against underwhelming opposition, so it is hard to get too excited about him, either.
I lean towards Mir because this one should end with a knockout and he’s the more likely to deliver one, but I don’t love the pick.
Pick: Frank Mir
Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (-225) vs. Tito Ortiz (+175)
Why settle for one Nogueira on a card when you can have two.
This fight, frankly, just pisses me off. I don’t understand why the UFC insists on continuing to give us Ortiz fights. He’s totally done, and if he was any less popular fighter he would have been put out to pasture long ago.
The organization keeps cashing in on him, though, and it’s getting ridiculous. This is not a fight that needs to be fought.
Pick: Antonio Rogerio Nogueira
Brian Ebersole (-135) vs. Claude Patrick (+105)
Ebersole, who has fought 63 times in his career — an incredible amount of punishment for any guy — steps in here thanks to an injury to Rory MacDonald. I really don’t think he should be favored in this one.
Patrick is a Canadian who was born in Toronto and still lives there, so he’ll definitely have the crowd on his side. He also has won 13 straight fights — an impressive streak for anyone, never mind a guy the public has never heard of.
I don’t think it will be a decisive win, but Patrick has the tools to come out on top.
Pick: Claude Patrick
Mark Hominick (-550) vs. Chan Sung Jung (+375)
I wish I could back Jung here because his nickname — “The Korean Zombie” — is a great one. Unfortunately, the odds tell you about all you need to know about the fight.
Hominick is another Canadian who will have the crowd on his side. He’s the faster fighter here, and he has the patience and the skills to stay out of trouble and frustrate his opponent.
This one will end by the second round.
Pick: Mark Hominick
Each card I pick a parlay to invest my mythical $500 in:
$500 parlay — Take Hominick, Patrick, Antonio Rogerio Nogueira, and Jones — Potential Profit of $1567.88
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