College Football Picks: Mid-Major Game Day Predictions Week 10
by Dave Schwab - 10/30/2012
The college football season is in the stretch run towards the upcoming bowl season as the top teams in the nation continue to jockey for position for a favorable spot in the BCS rankings. However, there are also a number of mid-major teams that are fighting just to get to a bowl. These kinds of matchups will usually not attract too much attention from the betting public, but they offer a ton of value in the betting lines if you know where and how to look.
The money train got derailed a bit last week with a 1-2 record on my top plays, but I am still 8-4 on my mid-major picks over the past four weeks. My overall record on the season continues to languish around .500 at 14-12-1. I dug through the matchups on this Saturday’s schedule in search of a few “diamonds in the rough” and came up with the following three college football picks for Week 10 using lines provided by 5Dimes.
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Air Force Falcons (-7.5) vs. Army Black Knights
The Falcons are closing in on six wins with a 5-3 record straight up (3-5 against the spread). They ran their current winning streak to three games with a 48-31 upset of Nevada last Friday night as 3.5-point underdogs at home. Look for another big effort from quarterback Conner Dietz and running back Cody Getz in this one.
Army has struggled its way to a 1-7 SU start with its only claim to fame being a 34-31 victory over Boston College as a seven-point home underdog. Since that point, the Black Knights have lost their last two home games both SU and ATS by a combined 22 points. This team knows how to run the ball but really struggles to play from behind.
Air Force has owned this matchup over the past several years with a perfect 6-0 record both SU and ATS in the last six meetings. Army has done nothing in recent weeks to make me think that year’s result will be any different.
Take #313 Air Force (-7.5) over Army (Saturday, Nov.3, noon)
Akron Zips vs. Kent State Golden Flashes (-21)
Akron is another team that comes into Week 10 with just one SU victory to its name. The Zips are riding a six-game losing streak and are just 1-4 ATS in their last five games. It is hard for me to see this team turning things around behind a defense that is ranked 113th in the nation in points allowed.
Kent State, on the other hand, is at the top of the Mid-American East Division standings at 4-0 and is 7-1 both SU and ATS overall. The Golden Flashes are getting it done with a rushing attack that is averaging 212.1 yards a game led by the deadly duo of Trayion Durham and Dri Archer. These two have already combined for 1,546 yards and 17 touchdowns on the ground this year.
This series has been evenly split 3-3 SU and ATS over the last six meetings, but Kent State hammered the Zips 35-3 last season as a 4.5-point road favorite. Revenge will not be a factor this time around as the talent gap between the two teams is as wide as it has ever been in recent memory. Do not worry about giving the three touchdown spread as this game will be one-sided from the start.
Take #316 Kent State (-21) over Akron (Saturday, Nov.3, 2 p.m.)
UL-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns vs. UL-Monroe Warhawks (-10)
UL-Lafayette is stuck in the middle of the pack in the Sun Belt Conference at 2-2 SU in conference play and 4-3 SU (3-4 ATS) overall. It has lost its last two games as a slight favorite by a combined 30 points with its defense getting torched for a combined 80 points.
The Warhawks currently sit atop the conference at 4-0 SU and are 6-2 both SU and ATS overall. They bring a five-game winning streak into this in-state rivalry and an offense that is ranked 18th in the nation in scoring with an average of 39.3 points a game.
Revenge is a factor in this Sun Belt showdown, considering that the Ragin’ Cajuns have beaten UL-Monroe four straight times. This year the tables are turned talent-wise and the Warhawks would love nothing more than to keep their winning streak alive with a lopsided win. Look for junior quarterback Kolton Browning to come up big this Saturday for the Warhawks like he has done all season long.
Take #414 UL-Monroe (-10) over UL-Lafayette (Saturday, Nov.3, 4 p.m.)
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