UFC 145 Odds and Betting Picks
by Trevor Whenham - 4/20/2012
If it seems like it has been a really long time since we have had a major UFC event there is a good reason for that — it has been a really long time. The event that was supposed to March 24 in Montreal was cancelled, so UFC 144 was nearly two months ago on February 26. We’re back now, though, and we get to see arguably the most exciting fighter currently in the sport defend his light heavyweight title. UFC 145 takes place on Saturday, April 21 at Philips Arena in Atlanta. Here’s how the six fights on the main card break down (all odds are from Bovada):
Light Heavyweight Championship — Jon Jones (-450) vs. Rashad Evans (+325)
This one is like something out of a soap opera. These guys used to be friends. Now they aren’t. There are hurt feelings and all sorts of drama. Beyond all that, though, there are also a couple of very good fighters.
Jones has looked practically immortal in his short trip to the top of the sport. The first time he was really challenged was in the first round of his last fight against Lyoto Machida. He looked like he might be in trouble, but he bounced back with a stunningly good second round to remind everyone who was still boss.
Evans has been criticized for not finishing Phil Evans last time out. He looked very good in the win, though — even if he didn’t score a knockout. He was able to foil Davis at every turn. Of course, Davis is a long, long way from Jones.
Jones has a body that is almost unfair for a light heavyweight. He has a massive reach advantage in this one. Evans needs to get close to be at his best, and that’s going to be very hard to do in this case. That means that Evans is going to have to look for small holes and exploit them with his explosive moves. The problem there is that that will expose him, and Jones is fast enough and strong enough to make Evans pay if he doesn’t connect fully with his shot.
Any way you break this one down I think you come down to the same conclusion — Jones is just too good. Evans can make it interesting, but Jones is heavily favored here for a very good reason.
Pick: Jon Jones
Rory MacDonald (-500) vs. Che Mills (+350)
Mills is a solid fighter — he scored the knockout of the night last time out. MacDonald is a very talented young guy who has the chance to climb to the top of the welterweight division, though. This is a huge step up in class for Mills, and it’s hard to imagine that he’s up for it. The Canadian will have an answer for everything Mills can try, and there is no reason to think he can’t win this one.
Pick: Rory MacDonald
Miguel Torres (-120) vs. Michael McDonald (-110)
As the odds suggest this one has the potential to be a classic. These two guys are in different phases of their career. Torres was recently the top bantamweight in the world, but three losses in his last six fights and a brief release from the UFC for a moronic Twitter comment has tarnished his career a bit and has him looking to climb back to the top. McDonald, on the other hand, is a 21 year old with the chance to be a superstar in the division. A win against a guy like this would really give him a boost. That’s going to be tough, though. Torres is much more experienced, and that experience is going to come into play here. he can control the fight, and show the youngster that he still has something to learn. there is a good chance that this wins the fight of the night.
Pick: Miguel Torres
Brendan Schaub (-275) vs. Ben Rothwell (+215)
Last time Rothwell fought he looked like he had no stamina, but that was in Denver so the altitude was likely an issue. That won’t be a factor here, so we should see a better fighter this time around. Schaub is the better fighter overall, but I have real concerns about him after he was badly knocked out by Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira last time out. That was the kind of loss that sticks with a guy, and I am not confident he can bounce back strong. At this price, then, Rothwell is worth a gamble.
Pick: Ben Rothwell
Mark Hominick (-650) vs. Eddie Yagin (+425)
Hominick is very heavily favored here. He should be. He’ll win this one in lopsided fashion. He lost a bad one last time out, and this fight really seems like one set up to let the valuable asset get his confidence back.
Pick: Mark Hominick
Mark Bocek (-450) vs. John Alessio (+325)
Bocek is a good fighter who has got some chances against top level fighters — including Frankie Edgar — despite only having 14 career fights under his belt. His problem is that he hasn’t been able to beat that level of fighter. Lucky for him Alessio isn’t anywhere close to that caliber. The price here is too high to offer any value, but I can’t justify picking Alessio.
Pick: Mark Bocek
On each card I bet a mythical $500. It’s often a parlay, and this card will be no exception:
$500 parlay on Hominick, Torres, MacDonald and Jones. Potential profit of $1051.
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