UFC 153 Odds and Betting Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 10/11/2012
We are heading back to Brazil for another UFC card — this time UFC 153, which comes to us on Saturday night from Rio de Janeiro. As we have come to expect when the UFC goes road tripping, the card is heavy on the home country content — each of the six fights on the main card features at least one Brazilian. At the top of the pile, of course, is Anderson Silva — the best pound-for-pound fighter on the planet.
Here’s how the main card shapes up (all UFC 153 odds are from Bovada):
Light Heavyweight — Anderson Silva (-1100) vs. Stephan Bonnar (+650)
The middleweight champion has stepped up in weight class for this non-title fight. It is an odd pairing, and a last-minute one forced by injuries — the ongoing plague of the UFC this year. Jose Aldo was supposed to defend his featherweight title against Erik Koch in the main event, but Koch was injured at the end of August. Frankie Edgar stepped up and agreed to drop weight to fight for the title, but then Aldo was hurt and the fight was derailed. It’s just another chapter in the long string of high-profile injuries this year.
When the odds are as ridiculously one-sided in a fight as these are, all you can really do is look to see whether the underdog is worth a gamble. In this case the answer is simple — no. Silva is faster, stronger, and significantly more talented. It would take a miracle for this one to go more than one round — never mind for it to end with Bonnar on top.
Pick: Anderson Silva
Heavyweight — Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (-325) vs. Dave Herman (+250)
It all comes down to the favorite’s arm. Last time we saw Nogueira in action his arm almost got snapped in two by Frank Mir at UFC 140. It is supposedly healed now — at least physically. The mental impact could be more significant, though. If he favors his arm at all or is afraid to fully test it, then he could be in trouble. Beyond that, though, his only real concern is avoiding Herman’s heavy fists when they are on their feet. Once they get to the ground Herman will be outclassed and the fight will end. Herman needs to end this one with a knockout, but given Nogueira’s equally heavy hands it’s not particularly likely he’ll get the chance.
Pick: Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira
Light heavyweight — Glover Teixeira (-375) vs. Fabio Maldonado (+285)
This is the only fight in which the crowd won’t have an obvious cheering interest because both fighters are from Brazil. Teixeira has only fought once in the UFC, but he is heavily-hyped thanks to his 16-fight winning streak. He was supposed to face Quinton Jackson here in a fight that would have really given us a sense of what Teixeira is capable of. Jackson was hurt, though, and Rashad Evans wasn’t willing to step in on short notice. That left it up to Maldonado, who is 1-2 in the UFC, to step in. It’s hardly a fair fight. Maldonado will throw lots of punches, but Teixeira will survive and eventually thrive. I’m not yet certain how good Teixeira really is, but he’s much better than his opponent here.
Pick: Glover Teixeira
Welterweight — Erick Silva (-145) vs. Jon Fitch (+115)
Finally, a fight that should be competitive — at least compared to the last three. This one has clearly been set up to see if Silva has what it takes to be a serious contender in the division. He’s a young fighter who seems to be on the rise. Fitch, meanwhile, is a seasoned veteran — one with a very different style than Silva. Fitch is an old-school wrestler who slowly wears opponents down, while Silva is very aggressive and creative and prefers to be on his feet. The key will be who sets the tone. Silva hasn’t faced anyone who can slow things down like Fitch because few guys can. That’s going to frustrate him, and that should be enough to give Fitch the edge — and the win.
Pick: Jon Fitch
Light heavyweight — Phil Davis (-380) vs. Wagner Prado (+290)
This is a rematch of a fight that ended prematurely in August. Davis accidentally poked Prado in the eye in the first round, and the fight ended. Unless Prado has significantly improved, though, he won’t have any more of a chance here than he did last time. He’s making his UFC debut (again) and is going to have a challenge with the outstanding wrestling skills of Davis, the NCAA wrestling champion in 2008 at Penn State.
Pick: Phil Davis
Welterweight — Demian Maia (-155) vs. Rick Story (+125)
Maia has fought only once at this weight class, and the fight ended prematurely thanks to his opponent’s injury, so we really don’t know how well it suits him. He has drawn a tough spot here. Story is a very good wrestler and a creative and slippery fighter. Maia is exceptional at submissions, but underwhelming in other aspects of his game. It’s going to be hard for Maia to overcome the wrestling skills to get the position he needs, so Story has value here as an underdog.
Pick: Rick Story
On each card we make $500 worth of mythical bets — typically parlays. This week we have two:
$250 parlay — Take Anderson Silva, Nogueira, Teixeira, Fitch, Davis. Potential profit of $976.85.
$250 parlay — Take Anderson Silva, Nogueira, Teixeira, Davis and Story. Potential profit of $1033.92.
Doc’s Sports is offering $60 worth of member’s picks absolutely free – no obligation, no sales people – you don’t even have to enter credit card information. You can use this $60 credit any way you please for any handicapper and any sport on Doc’s Sports Advisory Board list of expert sports handicappers. Click here for more details and take advantage of this free $60 picks credit today.
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