2012 US Open Golf Props Odds and Betting Predictions
by Alan Matthews - 6/12/2012
You can look for an overall preview of this week’s US Open at Olympic in San Francisco here at Doc’s Sports on Wednesday, but today let’s take a look at some of the many prop options available at Bovada for the second major of the season.
First off, let’s start with a pretty easy one: Will there be a hole-in-one? ‘No’ is the -200 favorite with ‘yes’ at +150. Most bettors usually lean to yes on this prop in majors because with so many talented players on the course, it seems logical that at least one gets an ace. But according to the US Open official site – although it does say holes-in-one records aren’t available for all years way back when – there have been only 41 holes-in-one in US Open history.
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There wasn’t one last year at Congressional and there have been only 10 since the turn of the century. There was one when Olympic last hosted the US Open in 1998, with Chris Perry acing the 196-yard 13th hole in the third round. I still lean toward yes on this prop, but don’t waste your money on the handful of yes-only holes-in-one props on certain players that the site offers.
In my lifetime, the most exciting US Open was the 2008 version when Tiger Woods beat Rocco Mediate in a 19-hole playoff at Torrey Pines. The US Open is the only one of the four major championships which does not go immediately to a playoff but instead an 18-hole round on Monday – Tiger and Rocco were tied after 90 holes so they played a 91st. That remains Tiger’s last major win.
So will there be a playoff this year? No is at -350 and yes at +250. History says take no. The only other US Open playoff since 1995 other than Tiger-Rocco four years ago was in 2001 when Retief Goosen beat Mark Brooks at Southern Hills. Overall, there have been 33 playoffs in 109 championships.
How about the winning margin at this year’s tournament? A playoff is actually the +250 favorite, so you could potentially double up on that prop or cover yourself if you say no to the above version. A one-shot victory is next at +275. Last year Rory McIlroy won by eight shots. The year before that Graeme McDowell won by a shot at even par at Pebble. In 2009 at Bethpage, Lucas Glover won by two and there was that ’08 version that went to a playoff. I lean toward one shot here. When Lee Janzen won the ’98 Open at Olympic, he won by a shot.
McIlroy was a wire-to-wire winner last year, but that’s obviously rare. That’s a yes-only prop for this year at +1200. I don’t recommend it.
Where will the winner come from? The USA is a big favorite at -138 even though a Northern Irishman has won it the past two years. Overall there have been 27 players who have won the Open a combined 33 times that weren’t Americans. With all the top players currently from Europe – McIlroy, Lee Westwood, Luke Donald, Justin Rose, to name a few – I lean toward a European taking this home for the third year in a row at +170.
If you really want to roll the dice, take a player from Australasia at +1400. Maybe Adam Scott (7/4 to be top Australian), Jason Day (11/4) or 2006 winner Geoff Ogilvy (4/1) will come through for you. Only three players from the countries that make up Australasia have won the Open: Ogilvy, Michael Campbell (2005) and David Graham (1981). You can also bet on whether Scott makes this cut this year, with yes at -275 and no at +300. He has missed the US Open cut the past two years. Another good Aussie prop is Scott (-155) vs. Day (+120) head-to-head. I like Day, the runner-up last year.
Meanwhile, could we see an Asian player win the US Open for the first time (that would be part of rest of the world at +600)? I would say no to that. The favorite for top Asian finisher is K.J. Choi at 10/3, but he has missed the cut in four of the past six years at the US Open and was T47 the other two. I like Charlie Wi, who is playing the best on the PGA Tour among all the Asians listed on this prop. Wi, at 11/2, almost won at Pebble Beach earlier this year and this will be his first US Open since missing the cut in his first start in 2009.
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