PGA Tour Picks: Deutsche Bank Championship Odds and Predictions
by Alan Matthews - 8/27/2013
You know that PGA Tour Player of the Year Award that Tiger Woods seemingly had a hammer-lock on? Not so much anymore. Oh, sure, Woods is probably still the favorite with his Tour-high five victories. But Adam Scott's win last week at The Barclays jumped Scott to a career-high No. 2 in the world -- and No. 2 in the FedEx Cup points behind Woods. Scott also has a major title on his resume this year unlike Woods (he does have two WGC victories). Of the 13 players who made the cut in all four majors this year, Scott is tied with countryman Jason Day for the best aggregate score (2-over-par total). At this point, I would suggest that if one of Scott, Tiger or Phil Mickelson (two Tour wins, including the British Open) wins the FedEx Cup that he will also take the award.
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Scott won last week at Liberty National (at 16/1 on Bovada) with a final-round 66 to edge Justin Rose, Graham DeLaet, Gary Woodland and Tiger, who missed a putt on No. 18 that would have forced a playoff, by a shot. I picked an Aussie to win, but it was Day. He led briefly on Thursday but wouldn't break 70 the rest of the way and was T25.
On the Top-10 finishes, I hit on Scott (+125) and Tiger (-275). Head-to-head, I hit on Tiger (-200) over Mickelson, Scott (-120) over Rory McIlroy and Matt Kuchar (-115) over Jason Dufner. Kuchar played terrific and was very much in contention before blowing up on the back-nine Sunday.
You have to like Scott's momentum heading to TPC Boston for this week's Deutsche Bank Championship, which was where Scott won his first PGA Tour event in 2003. If you go looking for this event on the Golf Channel on Thursday, you won't find it. The Deutsche Bank is one of two events that go Friday-Monday in 2013 along with the season-opening Hyundai. Tiger, Scott and Lefty are grouped the first two days.
I am going to write this story presuming Tiger is playing. He was bothered by a bad back all week at Liberty National, blaming a lousy hotel bed. He did pull out of a charity event on Wednesday. Being as this event benefits his foundation, I am guessing he guts it out, although he had to skip a similar event, the AT&T National, earlier this year due to injury. The PGA Tour is dark next week, so Woods can rest then.
Every player on the Top 100 in the points list is supposed to play, including Americans Zach Johnson and Steve Stricker, who both missed last week for personal reasons. Five players were outside the Top 100 entering last week and are in Boston: Camilo Villegas (No. 100), Stuart Appleby (No. 96), Erik Compton (94), Greg Chalmers (93) and Martin Kaymer (90). Obviously all five will need a big week to advance to the BMW Championship, which is for the Top 75 in points. Last year, nine players arrived in Boston outside the Top 75 but survived to earn a place at the BMW Championship. The bubble guy right now is Kevin Stadler at 75.
Last year, Rory McIlroy won the Deutsche Bank a few weeks after dominating at the PGA Championship. Louis Oosthuizen barely missed a birdie putt on the 72nd hole to force a playoff. Tiger finished third, two shots back, and became the first player to surpass $100 million in PGA Tour earnings.
Golf Odds: Deutsche Bank Championship Favorites
Shocker that Woods is the 13/2 Bovada favorite. I'm not overly worried about his back problem -- he loves being a drama queen. He won this tournament in 2006 and was runner-up the next year. Woods has finished outside the Top 5 just once in his past seven non-majors this year. That's impressive. In eight trips to TPC Boston he has finished outside of the Top 11 only once.
Scott is 10/1, and if you follow this column at all you know there's no way I pick him to win a second week in a row. Scott hasn't finished outside the Top 15 in his past four tournaments this year. He hasn't finished worse than seventh the past three Deutsche Banks.
Mickelson (12/1), McIlroy (14/1) and Rose (16/1) round out the Top 5. Lefty was T6 last week and won this event in 2007. He was fourth a year ago. McIlroy might be putting things together as he followed a T8 at the PGA with a T19 last week. Rose doesn't have a good track record at this tournament, finishing outside the Top 25 in his past five tries.
PGA Tour Picks: Deutsche Bank Championship Betting Predictions
Take Tiger again with a Top 10 (-175), and I think Mickelson (even) is ready to contend again, so he as well. I also can't argue with Scott's record at TPC Boston, so take him at even money. Last year, only four players had Top-10 finishes at both The Barclays and Deutsche Bank Championship. There's a prop on McIlroy's finishing position, and I'd lean on 1st-20th at -175 but don't like him on the Top-10 prop. Love one stroke as the margin of victory at +275.
Head-to-head, take Mickelson (-115) over McIlroy (-115) and Rose (even) over him (-130). Love Brandt Snedeker (-105) over Jason Dufner and Jim Furyk (-115) over Dustin Johnson (-115).
Zach Johnson doesn't have a good track record here but is definitely worth a look at 33/1 to win. He has five straight Top-10 finishes on Tour and will be plenty rested after taking last week off. But the pick is Mickelson at 12/1. He's clearly past his British Open hangover, and a victory would make for some terrific drama in the season's final two events with Tiger and Scott.
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