PGA Tour Picks: RBC Canadian Open Odds and Predictions
by Alan Matthews - 7/24/2013
It was a very exciting British Open at Muirfield last week where the players still couldn't solve the course despite very unseasonably warm conditions. That played a part in the greens acting more like Augusta than a Scottish links course.
I am unabashedly a Phil Mickelson fan, so I was thrilled to see him win his first British Open after yet another heartbreak at the U.S. Open. His final-round 66 was the best final round of his career and one of the best you will ever see in the final round of any major. He shot a back-nine 32 and needed just 26 putts overall Sunday in matching the best round of the tournament. Lefty became only the third golfer in the past 100 years to be trailing by five shots through 54 holes at a major and win it. Golf fans no doubt will remember one of those: Nick Faldo at the 1996 Masters.
With five majors and three-fourths of the Grand Slam complete, Mickelson has to be on any Top 10 of all-time list, if he wasn't already, and I highly doubt he's done. I do think he adds a U.S. Open at some point. He's up to No. 2 in the world -- still shocking Lefty has never been ranked No. 1.
I was kicking myself about halfway through Sunday's round because it looked like England's Lee Westwood was going to win, and I've picked him the past three British Opens. Alas, he fell apart. He now has eight top-three finishes in majors, the most by anyone without a victory since the inception of the Masters 79 years ago. Tiger Woods was never a factor on Sunday, which is becoming a trend in majors. Tiger's 74 on Sunday tied his highest final round at the British Open as a professional. In his past six majors, Tiger is 11 under in the first two rounds and 23 over on the weekend. Yet he remains the early PGA Championship favorite.
I did not pick Mickelson to win at 16/1 because he had won the week before at the Scottish Open, and it's nearly impossible to win the week before and then at a major. But Lefty was the last to do so as well. An American winning the Open was the +140 favorite. I did recommend taking the Big 6 of Tiger, Mickelson, Justin Rose, Adam Scott, Graeme McDowell and Rory McIlroy at +200 against the field (-275). McIlroy is clearly lost right now, by the way, after missing the cut. I went with McDowell to win (22/1), but he never shot better than 71 and was T58. Thus, I missed on a player from Great Britain & Ireland to win at +300.
The international theme continues this week on the PGA Tour with its lone visit to Canada for the RBC Canadian Open at the par-72 Glen Abbey Golf Club in Ontario. Hard to believe, but there are only five tournaments left, including this one, before the start of the FedEx Cup playoffs. All of the stars will be back next week at the WGC-Bridgestone ahead of the PGA Championship at Oak Hill. The Canadian Open is on a rotation, and Glen Abbey hosts for the first time since 2009 when Aussie Nathan Green won. Scott Piercy is the defending champion, winning at Hamilton GC last year for career victory No. 2. Jim Furyk in 2007 was the last to repeat at the Canadian Open.
As of this writing, 29 players who played at Muirfield will tee it up Thursday. Seven of the Top 16 in the world are entered, led by No. 6 Matt Kuchar. By my count there are 17 Canadians in the field, led by Stephen Ames, Graham DeLaet and former Masters winner Mike Weir (who has fallen off the planet). No Canadian has won his national open since Pat Fletcher in 1954. Weir almost did nine years ago back when he was relevant.
PGA Tour Golf Odds: RBC Canadian Open Favorites
Brandt Snedeker is the 12/1 favorite at Bovada. He finished T16 here last year, closing with a strong 66. He was T5 in 2009 at Glen Abbey. Snedeker seems over his struggles with three straight Top-20 finishes, including a T11 last week.
Hunter Mahan and Kuchar are 18/1. Mahan was a solid T9 last week and was in the mix for a bit on Sunday before shooting 75. He was T48 at this event last year and didn't play it in 2009. Kuchar was T34 last year and also didn't play four years ago.
Charl Schwartzel and Luke Donald round out the favorites at 20/1 each. Schwartzel's T15 last week was his third straight overall this year. He was T42 at this event a year ago. Donald missed the cut last week. He was T24 at Glen Abbey in 2009 and didn't play last year.
PGA Tour Picks: RBC Canadian Open Predictions
On the Top-10 results, I like Snedeker (+135), Dustin Johnson (+225) and DeLaet (+300). Head-to-head, DeLaet (-115) over Billy Horschel, Furyk (-115) over Ernie Els (-115) and Johnson (-115) over Donald (-115). As always, take the “yes” on the hole in one prop, set at -120.
I do think DeLaet will contend, and he's pretty solid value at 28/1 to win. I would go with him as top Canadian at 3/2. Few players are going as well as Daniel Summerhays (50/1) right now. He has three straight Top-10s and lost in a playoff last week in the Sanderson Farms Championship. He's 46 under over his last 12 rounds. I am going to throw some money on Summerhays to win, but I think Mahan actually does.
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