UFC 159 Odds and Betting Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 4/26/2013
There have been plenty of smaller UFC events recently, but we haven’t seen a full pay-per-view event since March 16 when Georges St. Pierre emphatically showed Nick Diaz who was boss. Well, they are back. They are heading to the not-so-beautiful environs of Newark, New Jersey, this week for UFC 159 on Saturday, April 27. On the main card there is a light heavyweight championship tilt as well as four fights that are more mildly-interesting than truly captivating. Let’s take a look at how it breaks down (all odds are from Sportsbook.ag):
Light Heavyweight Championship - Jon ‘Bones’ Jones (-675) vs. Chael Sonnen (+475)
I could go through all sorts of analysis, background and discussion about this fight, but I will spare you. When the odds on a fight are so ridiculously lopsided, there is only one question you have to ask — does the underdog have enough of a chance to warrant a gamble? The short answer here is “no”. Simply, Sonnen doesn’t deserve this fight. He hasn’t fought at this weight class, so he’s at a disadvantage coming in. The only reason he got this fight at all is because opponents are in short supply for Jones, and Sonnen gave Anderson Silva a major scare at UFC 117 in August of 2010. He also tested positive for excess testosterone after that fight, though, and subsequently he was dismantled by Silva in the rematch last summer. Jones has looked very good in each of his four title defenses and is more than a matchup for Sonnen. This one is barely fair. You can decide for yourself whether you have any interest in betting on Jones at this kind of price, but betting on Sonnen just doesn’t make sense.
Pick: Jon Jones
Middleweight - Michael Bisping (-170) vs. Alan Belcher (+140)
Bisping needs to pick himself up and get back on track. He was probably just one win away from a title shot last time out, but he was just destroyed by Vitor Belfort. The good news for him, though, is that Belcher is also coming off a rough loss — a convincing decision for Yushin Okami at UFC 155. As a handicapper, this is the kind of fight that holds very little interest to me. The problem is that Bisping has an edge because of his skills and stamina but not that much of an edge because Belcher can be feisty — especially if he can establish himself inside early. The odds seem pretty close for both fighters, so taking a side is just gambling. I’m not a fan of that.
Pick: Michael Bisping
Heavyweight - Roy Nelson (-260) vs. Cheick Kongo (+200)
Nelson is inspiring for many of us out there — if a guy who looks like that can be a pro athlete, there is hope for any of us. He might look like a slob, but he is a beast in the ring, and he is getting better each time out as he quits relying on pure power and learns to craft combinations and employ strategy. Kongo is now 37. While he can still put up a good fight, he is far from elite and certainly not explosive. He has a big reach advantage here, but Nelson is used to that and will be able to overcome it. Kongo’s biggest issue here is that Nelson is as tough as they come, so it is very hard to knock him off balance to create an opening. This is a fight created to move Nelson further up the heavyweight ladder while scoring some style points along the way.
Pick: Roy Nelson
Light Heavyweight - Phil Davis (-300) vs. Vinny Magalhaes (+240)
There is some drama here because these two don’t like each other much. They’ve had a Twitter war raging for more than a year. The problem for the underdog, though, is that he doesn’t seem to have the tools to back up his talk. He is an excellent submission specialist. He just doesn’t have the striking game needed to set that up against a fighter like Davis, and the favorite has a big reach advantage, which only enhances the problem. Davis is very good on the ground thanks to his wrestling background, and he is extraordinarily — often frustratingly — patient. Magalhaes just isn’t likely to get the opportunity he needs. This sets up very well for a Davis decision. Despite the odds here, there is some value in Davis.
Pick: Phil Davis
Lightweight - Jim Miller (-350) vs. Pat Healy (+270)
Healy has most recently been in Strikeforce, and he brings a six-fight winning streak back to the UFC where he previously lost his only match. He’s a solid fighter, but this is just a brutal matchup for him. Miller is a similar fighter, but he is better at almost everything than Healy is. Miller is coming off a huge win over Joe Lauzon at UFC 155, and he will be riding a wave of confidence. It would be an upset if Miller doesn’t win by submission.
Pick: Jim Miller
For each pay-per-view card, I invest $500 dollars — typically in one or more parlays. This card isn’t particularly interesting because of the strength of the favorites, so we’ll again resort to a parlay to try to find a decent return.
$500 parlay - Take Jones, Nelson, Davis, Miller. Potential profit of $862.64.
Doc’s Sports is offering $60 worth of member’s picks absolutely free – no obligation, no sales people – you don’t even have to enter credit card information. You can use this $60 credit any way you please for any handicapper and any sport on Doc’s Sports Advisory Board list of expert sports handicappers. Click here for more details and take advantage of this free $60 picks credit today.
Read more articles by Trevor Whenham
Most Recent UFC Predictions
- Karol Rosa vs Vanessa Melo Predictions, Picks, UFC 251 Odds
- Amanda Ribas vs Paige VanZant Predictions, Picks, UFC 251 Odds
- Jessica Andrade vs Rose Namajunas Predictions, Picks, UFC 251 Odds
- Martin Day vs Davey Grant Predictions, Picks, UFC 251 Odds
- Makwan Amirkhani vs Danny Henry Predictions, Picks, UFC 251 Odds
- Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos vs Muslim Salikhov Predictions, Picks, UFC 251 Odds
- Petr Yan vs Jose Aldo Predictions, Picks, UFC 251 Odds
- Alexander Volkanovski vs Max Holloway Predictions, Picks, UFC 251 Odds
- Kamaru Usman vs Jorge Masvidal Predictions, Picks, UFC 251 Odds
- Jordan Griffin vs Youssef Zalal Predictions, Picks, UFC Vegas 4 Odds