This Week in NFL Betting by the Numbers
by Ricky Dimon - 1/10/2013


The three  scariest words in sports have dominated the headlines this week. They are, of  course, none other than “Doctor. James. Andrews.”
  
  Mercifully, Robert Griffin III finally went under Andrews’ knife on Wednesday,  so we can stop talking about players enjoying (or not enjoying) their  offseasons and focus on the real issues at hand. 
  
  All odds provided by Sportsbook.ag.
  
    3 – Games, out of four, in the divisional round that are rematches of regular-season  meetings. The only one that isn’t is Seattle at Atlanta. Baltimore and Denver  just faced each other in Week 15, with the Broncos cruising to a 34-17 road  victory. Green Bay and San Francisco squared off back in Week 1, when the 49ers  went into Lambeau Field as six-point underdogs and came away with a 30-22 win.  One of the biggest blowouts of the year took place on Dec. 10 in New England,  as the Patriots punished Houston in the form of a 42-14 score line. All three  winners of those matchups are playing at home this weekend, and all three are  favored to have the upper hand.
  
  9-10 – Peyton Manning’s record in 19  career playoff games as a starting quarterback. That’s a decent mark by some  standards, but not for Manning — who is 154-70 in regular-season games and  145-47 during regular seasons that resulted in playoff berths. In other words,  in playoff years Manning’s regular-season winning percentage is .756 but his  postseason winning percentage is .474. The Broncos are going up against a  Ravens’ defense that ranked 17th overall in the NFL during the  regular season (350.9 yards per game) and also 17th against the pass  (228.1 ypg). Manning completed 17-of-28 passes for 204 yards and one touchdown  in the previous matchup with Baltimore, a game in which both the Broncos’  offense and the Ravens’ defense were missing key starters. Baltimore is a +10 road underdog  on Saturday.
38 – Rushing yards, on 12 carries, mustered by Ray Rice in  Baltimore’s regular-season loss to Denver. In his last six postseason outings,  Rice is averaging only 58.8 yards and has one touchdown. The former Rutgers  standout lost just one fumble during the regular season but he gave away two in  last weekend’s victory over Indianapolis. Rice and the Ravens are going up  against a Broncos’ defense that ranked second overall in the league (290.8 ypg)  and third against the run (91.1 ypg). The “over/under” for Saturday’s showdown  is 46.
  
  105.5 – Aaron Rodgers’ playoff  quarterback rating on the road, the best such mark in the history of the NFL. Rodgers,  who earned his first career home postseason victory when the Packers disposed  of Minnesota in round one, is 4-1 lifetime away from the Frozen Tundra in the  playoffs (3-1 on the road, 1-0 in the Super Bowl). In four road games he has 10  touchdowns and three interceptions. Factor in the Super Bowl victory over  Pittsburgh, and Rodgers has 13 touchdowns and still only three picks. Green Bay  is a +3 road underdog on Saturday at San Francisco.
51 – League-leading number of times that Rodgers was sacked ruing the regular season, including three in the regular-season opener against the 49ers. San Fran defensive end Aldon Smith led the NFC with 19.5 quarterback beatdowns and he — along with the rest of the team — should benefit from the return of defensive tackle Justin Smith. Justin missed the Niners’ last two games with a partially torn triceps. The over/under of this one is 45, the lowest of the week (although all four totals are within 2.5 points).
72-23 – Margin by which the Atlanta Falcons  have been outscored in their last two playoff games. Also the NFC’s No. 1 seed  two seasons ago, Atlanta got blown out in its opener by visiting Green Bay,  48-21. Last year, the Falcons visited the Giants during wild-card action and  stumbled out of New York with a humiliating 24-2 loss. Since Mike Smith and  Matt Ryan started to turn around this franchise in 2008, they are 56-24 in the  regular season and 0-3 in the playoffs (lost to eventual NFC champion Arizona  at the end of the 2008 campaign). Atlanta is a -2.5 favorite over Seattle on  Sunday. 
  
  7-0 – The Seahawks record “against  the spread” in their last seven versus teams with winning records as they head  into a showdown with the 13-3 Falcons. Seattle is 5-1 ATS in its last six  overall and 5-1 ATS in its last six against NFC opponents. Pete Carroll’s squad  has won five in a row and seven of eight, with the only loss in that span  coming at Miami on Nov. 25, 24-21. Running back Marshawn Lynch is averaging  116.8 yards per game and 6.9 per carry in his last five outings, all of which  have seen him surpass the century mark on the ground. The over/under for  Lynch’s rushing yards against Atlanta is 100.5.
25 – New England’s turnover differential (in the positive  department, of course) during the regular season, the best mark in the NFL.  Interestingly enough, the takeaway battle was tied at one apiece when the  Patriots and Texans faced each other in Week 15, and Houston still got blown out of the water. Matt  Schaub and company coughed up the pigskin four times (compared with one  takeaway) in their two-game losing streak to end the year, a stretch that cost  them a first-round bye. New England is a -9.5 home favorite on Sunday.
  
  1 – Touchdown passes thrown by  Schaub since the end of Week 13. For those counting, that’s fewer in the same  span than Kirk Cousins of Washington and Terrelle Pryor of Oakland. Perhaps  even worse is the fact that it’s the same as…wait for it…Mark Sanchez! Schaub  has thrown four interceptions in that span, and he has nine picks in his last  nine outings. Houston’s signal-caller is going up against a Patriots’ defense  that ranked 25th overall in the league (373.2 yards per game) and 29th  against the pass (271.4 ypg). The over/under on Sunday is 47.5.
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