PGA Tour Picks: Dell Technologies Championship Odds and Expert Betting Predictions
Heck of a start to the PGA Tour's FedExCup playoffs on Sunday at the Northern Trust in New York and perhaps the birth of the sport's next great rivalry between Americans Dustin Johnson and Jordan Spieth.
Spieth started Sunday with a three-shot lead and was up to five after his first five holes - but then he found the drink on No. 6 and started coming back to the field. Johnson eventually caught Spieth and both made crucial 18-foot putts late in their rounds to force a playoff, which Johnson won on the first extra hole with a birdie. I'm not going to say Spieth collapsed like he did at the 2016 Masters, but he should have won the tournament. Spieth did move to No. 2 in the world rankings and in the points.
It was Johnson's fourth win of the season and first since he took a three-tournament winning streak into the Masters - only to fall in his Augusta rental home. The victory also moved Johnson to No. 1 in the FedExCup points as former leader Hideki Matsuyama missed only his second cut of the season. I hit on my sixth winner of the year as I took the easy way out in the Bovada prop of Spieth, Johnson and Rickie Fowler at +375 vs. the field.
The Top 125 in points qualified for the playoffs (a few guys didn't play last week), and now the Top 100 moves to this week's Dell Technologies Championship (formerly the Deutsche Bank Championship) at TPC Boston. As it's the Labor Day holiday weekend, it's a Friday-Monday event - the only one on Tour. Then the Tour goes dark next week with the Top 70 advancing to the BMW Championship.
A total of three players moved from outside the Top 100 to inside last week, meaning obviously three were knocked out. The lucky ones were Harold Varner III, Bubba Watson and David Lingmerth. Watson has not had a good year but picked a good time for his first Top 10 since June. Varner was outside the Top 125 heading into the final pre-playoffs tournament but jumped inside and then moved from 123 to 91st last week. He becomes just the fifth player in FedExCup history to qualify for this tournament after being outside the mark at both the Wyndham Championship and the Northern Trust. Just one of the previous four (Ernie Els) made it to the third playoff event.
Those who fell out of the Top 100 last week all missed the cut: Byeong Hun An (96 to 102), Robert Garrigus (99 to 109) and Seung-Yul Noh (100 to 110). Currently right at No. 100 is Michael Kim. At No. 70 is Grayson Murray with veteran Rod Pampling at 71st. The biggest names who must play well this week to advance are Watson (72nd) and Adam Scott (73 rd). Scott originally planned to skip this tournament as he and his wife just welcomed a second child, but has decided to play.
TPC Boston is a part 71 measuring 7,342 yards. Vijay Singh shares both the 18- (61) and 72-hole records (262). The defending champion is Rory McIlroy. He rallied from six down last year on Monday and closed with a 6-under 65 on a very windy day for a two-shot victory over Paul Casey.
Golf Odds: Dell Technologies Championship Favorites
Johnson is +700 to go back-to-back - if you follow these stories you know I never recommend that, although he obviously proved earlier this year it can be done. Johnson was eighth in Boston last year. Spieth is +750. It's his fifth time in Boston with a best finish of fourth in 2013. He missed the cut in 2015 and was 21st last year.
Matsuyama (+1200), McIlroy (+1400), Jason Day (+1600) and Fowler (+1600) round out the favorites. McIlroy and Singh are the only two-time winners of this tournament, with Rory also doing so in 2012 when he beat Louis Oosthuizen by a stroke. Fowler won in 2015 - oddly, the winning score three straight years at TPC Boston has been 15-under 269. Day might be turning his season around with a sixth last week, his second straight Top 10. Matsuyama's best result here is 15th.
Golf Odds: Dell Technologies Championship Picks
Three winners of this tournament have gone on to win the FedExCup since the playoffs began in 2007: Singh in 2008, Henrik Stenson in 2013 (he withdrew on Monday) and McIlroy last year. This event also is the last chance for players to earn automatic berths on the U.S. and International Presidents Cup teams.
For a Top 10, I like Day (+325), Scott (+320) and Oosthuizen (+300). Roll with Louis as top South African at -120 and McIlroy at +275 as top European. Lean Brooks Koepka (-120) over Patrick Reed (-110), Justin Thomas (-115) over Casey (-115), Day (-115) over Fowler (-115), Spieth (-110) over Johnson (-120), and Scott (-115) over Kevin Chappell (-115).
My winner is Scott at +3300. He has the motivation to play well (if not well rested after his child's birth) and has a win and four other Top 10s in this tournament, including a fourth last year.
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