PGA Tour Picks: AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Odds and Expert Betting Predictions
I tell you, I thought we were looking at a second straight Super Bowl to go to overtime when Patriots quarterback Tom Brady got the ball with 1:05 left and his team down eight points vs. Philadelphia - after all, this is the GOAT we are talking about, and he led an incredible late comeback last year against the Falcons in the Super Bowl.
Alas, the Patriots couldn't force extra time, but earlier in the day at TPC Scottsdale, the Waste Management Phoenix Open went to a playoff for the third year in a row, and it was the fourth straight week there was one on Tour. Big-hitting American Gary Woodland won this one, beating Chez Reavie for his first victory on Tour since 2013 and just his second win at a non-opposite field event. The two had finished regulation 18-under 266 at TPC Scottsdale.
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Reavie had forced an extra hole with a 21-foot birdie make on the 72 nd. They went back to the 18th tee, and Woodland's par was enough to take home the trophy and a nice check. His 64 was the lowest round on Sunday and tied for the round of the week. Woodland also became the first guy to ever win the event with a triple-bogey or worse in one of his rounds - he had one Friday.
Woodland always has had the distance off the tee to be a star but wasn't a well-rounded player. He has been so far this season and credits an improved short game to recent work with Pete Cowen and Brad Faxon (one of the best putters ever). Woodland began Sunday three shots back of Rickie Fowler's lead but shot a front-nine 30. Fowler blew up by bogeying 15, 16 & 17 on Sunday to shoot 2-over 73. He has had a 54-hole lead in six tournaments in his career and has finished the job just once.
I missed Fowler by one shot for a Top 10 at +130. Also liked two-time defending champion Hideki Matsuyama for one, but he withdrew following a first-round 69 due to a wrist injury. It was the first time Matsuyama pulled out of a tournament since the 2016 Honda Classic (hip). I also liked Jordan Spieth for a Top 10, but he missed the dang cut. I did get Brendan Steele for one, though, at a nice price of +400. Also hit on "yes" there's a playoff at +300.
So now the Tour heads to Pebble Beach, probably the No. 1 course in the USA that most golfers I know are dying to play - as in a course they actually could play because it's public (but obviously quite expensive) - for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. This actually will have an NFL feel with three current or former QBs in Aaron Rodgers, Alex Smith and Tony Romo all playing the pro-am portion. Pebble is only 6,816 yards at par 72, but the winds make it play much longer. The U.S. Open will return there in 2019. Spyglass Hill GC (6,953/72) and Monterey Peninsula CC's Shore course (6,958/71) also are used in the first three days. It's a 54-hole cut.
The defending champion is Spieth. He began Sunday with a six-stroke lead and played pretty conservative golf with a final-round 70 to finish at 19-under 268 and win by four over Kelly Kraft.
Golf Odds: AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Favorites
World No. 1 Dustin Johnson is the +550 favorite at Bovada , and he should be a heavy favorite. He was the last repeat winner here in 2009-10, played great at the 2010 U.S. Open at Pebble for three rounds and has four other Top 5s in this tournament since 2012.
Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy and Jason Day are all +1000. Rahm was fifth here in his debut last year and 11th last week in Phoenix. McIlroy makes his 2018 PGA Tour debut. He was second and third in his past two Euro Tour events in the Middle East. McIlroy has never played here. Day took last week off following his playoff win at the Farmers two weeks ago. He has finished worse than 11th just once here since 2013.
Spieth is +1100 with four-time champion Phil Mickelson at +2800. Spieth has never missed a cut here in five tries with a worst finish of 22 nd in 2013. Mickelson was fifth last week and a runner-up here in 2016.
Golf Odds: AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Picks
For a Top 10, I like Johnson (-165), Day (-120), Mickelson (+275) and Patrick Reed (+300). Reed is 5-for-5 here in cuts made with two Top 10s. Go Day as +115 favorite as top rest of the world player, Rafael Cabrera Bello (+350) as top continental European player and Johnson (+400) as top American.
I like Johnson (-135) over Rahm (+105), Mickelson (-115) over Paul Casey (-115), Day (-120) over Spieth (-110), Pat Perez (-110) over Matt Kuchar (-120), and Reed (-110) over two-time winner Brandt Snedeker (-120).
I really hate recommending such heavy favorites, but how can you not take Johnson with his success here? Bovada offers a prop on DJ & McIlroy at +350 vs. the field (-550), but I'm not super confident McIlroy will win. I wish Johnson was with Day or Lefty (who is available at +900 alongside Woodland and Casey vs. the field at -2000). I may throw some longer-shot money on Reed at +3500 to win.
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