PGA Tour Picks: AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Odds and Expert Betting Predictions
OK, I'm counting it as my second correct prediction already in 2019! For last week's Waste Management Phoenix Open, I wrote: "I'll probably throw a few bucks on Rickie Fowler to win, but the best value appears to be Martin Laird way down at +7500."
Fowler did win, although he tried his best to implode on Sunday by hitting into the water at No. 11 and getting a triple-bogey. Fowler led by five strokes when he stepped to the tee on 11 and walked off just one up on Branden Grace, who trailed by seven to start the day.
Very rare to see a guy win a tournament with a triple on his card, especially in the final round. Fowler also had a double-bogey on the par-4 fifth hole, becoming the first PGA Tour player to win with a double-bogey and triple-bogey or worse since 1983. He shot 3-over 74 on Sunday at TPC Scottsdale, highest by a winner in tournament history. Fowler finished at 17-under 267 to beat Grace by two shots for his fifth PGA Tour title. Grace put his tee shot on the par-4 17th in the water. Fowler, who opened at +1800 to win at Bovada, had lost this event in a playoff to Hideki Matsuyama three years ago and led after 54 holes in 2018 before fading. Laird was in contention through 54 holes but finished T26 after a final-round 74.
This week, the Tour heads back to California and perhaps the most picturesque course in the United States (it's public, but it's pricey!) for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. What makes this year's event a bit different from past years is that the U.S. Open will be at Pebble later this summer. It will be the sixth time it hosts that major.
Thus, the layout is going to be different. According to reports, USGA officials have already narrowed the fairways on several holes in preparation for the U.S. Open. The fairways are usually about 45 yards wide in the landing area and now are around 30. Usually, the course plays fairly easy for this tournament because of the Pro-Am format - you don't want to torture all these celebrities and CEOs paying big money to tee it up next to a professional. The team winner last year was Cardinals receiver Larry Fitzgerald and pro Kevin Streelman.
It surprises many how short Pebble Beach is at just over 6,800 yards, but it still plays to a par 72 and obviously can be treacherous depending on the winds. The course record is a 62. This is the 100th anniversary of the course opening. Spyglass Hill Golf Club (6,953 yards, par 72) and Monterey Peninsula Country Club's Shore course (6,958/71) also are played over the first three days. So the cut is after 54 holes.
The defending champion is journeyman Ted Potter Jr., who finished at 17-under 270, three ahead of Jason Day, Dustin Johnson, Phil Mickelson and Chez Reavie. It was Potter's second career win, also taking the 2012 Greenbrier Classic. He hasn't won or done much since - Potter missed the cut last week at 4 over. The last repeat winner here was Johnson in 2010.
Mickelson eyes a fifth win in this tournament, which would tie Mark O'Meara for most all-time.
Golf Odds: AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Favorites
Johnson, the highest-ranked player in the field, is the +600 favorite at Bovada . Absolutely no surprise. He won last week at the European Tour's Saudi Invitational - his first Euro Tour win that wasn't a major or a WGC event - and has those back-to-back wins here. Overall, he has eight Top 10s in 11 starts, including a couple of second-place finishes.
Day is +1000. He has yet to miss a cut in nine tries at this tournament and has five Top 10s. He comes off a T5 at the Farmers Insurance Open. Struggling Jordan Spieth, Tommy Fleetwood and Tony Finau are all +2200. Spieth did win here in 2017 but appears in his own head right now with a terrible start to the season. It's Fleetwood's tournament debut, while Finau plays for just the second time and had a T23 two years ago.
Golf Odds: AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Picks
For a Top 10, I like Johnson (-125), Day (-110) and another former winner, Brandt Snedeker (+500) even though he's not playing all that well this season.
Head-to-head, go Shane Lowry (-130) over Matthew Fitzpatrick (even), Matt Kuchar (-115) over Fleetwood (-115), Patrick Cantlay (-105) over Spieth (-125), Mickelson (-105) over Finau (-125), and Johnson (-130) over Day (even). Like Paul Casey (+175) as top Englishman, Day (+225) as top rest of the world, and Johnson (+300) as top American.
It's rather boring going chalk, but Johnson and Day clearly stand out on this course. Thankfully, Bovada isn't making me pick between them. You can get those two at +350 vs. the field (-550) and we'll go that way.
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