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Edmonton Oilers vs. Dallas Stars Series Predictions and Best Bets

by Ryan Cobbett - 5/20/2025

Edmonton Oilers vs Dallas Stars series predictions and best bets Thomas Harley

The Dallas Stars will begin a revenge series against the Edmonton Oilers in the Western Conference Finals. Last year, the Edmonton Oilers knocked off the Dallas Stars in six games in the Conference Finals and they will look to find their way back to the Stanley Cup Finals while Dallas will be looking to return for the first time since 2020. The Stars are 8-5 so far this postseason and have a -4-goal differential. As for the Oilers, they have found their stride since losing back-to-back games to the Kings to begin their postseason. Since those two losses, they are 8-1 and have a +14-goal differential during that span. Dallas won the regular season series 2-1 with a +3-goal differential.

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Team Summaries

Dallas has had the two toughest opponents so far this postseason and while the numbers don’t look pretty, they have found a way to win. The took down Colorado in seven games while knocking off the President Trophy winners in six games. Dallas has averaged just 2.62 GF/G during the postseason, which is way down from their 3.35 GF/G average during the season. They have executed on special teams throughout their 13 playoff games as they have cashed in on 30.8% of their man advantage opportunities which is the best mark amongst remaining teams while their 86% PK% looks incredible when you think of their oppositions power play units. Mikko Rantanen has been incredible for Dallas and has shown up when it mattered most. He leads the team and all playoff players with 19 points (9g, 10a). Thomas Harley, who’s overtime goal pushed Dallas into the next round, is second on the team with 11 points while Roope Hintz is third with 10. What makes Dallas scary going forward is they are now at full strength with Jason Robertson and Miro Heiskanen joining the fray and they have yet to see Matt Duchene contribute, which it is only a matter of time before that happens. Jake Oettinger has been stellar this postseason. He has allowed just 2.47 GA/G and has a .919 SV%.

After a bleak start, the Oilers have breezed through the first two rounds of the playoffs and are now faced with the tough test of eliminating the Dallas Stars for the second straight season. Edmonton owned Vegas, taking the series in five games while recording two shutouts to close it out. Through 11 playoff games, Edmonton is averaging 3.91 GF/G which is the second most among the 16 playoff teams. Their special teams play, specifically their penalty kill has not been good. They have killed off just 66.7% of their opponent’s power play chances which is by far the worst among the four remaining teams and the second worst among the playoff teams. Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl have carried the team as the two have combined for 33 points through 11 games. Draisaitl and Corey Perry are tied for the team lead with five goals while Evan Bouchard, Evander Kane, and Connor Brown have all recorded four goals of their own. The goalie situation has been a dramatic one for Edmonton. Stuart Skinner lost the starting job after allowing 11 goals on 58 shots against. Calvin Pickard then took over and allowed just 2.84 GA/G while going 6-0. Now he is hurt, and Skinner is back in the crease and is coming off back-to-back shutout performances.

Goalie Matchup

Oettinger has been elite on home ice during the postseason. He has allowed just 2.14 GA/G through seven home starts. He also leads all playoff goalies in shots against, seeing 103 more than Adin Hill who ranks second. Though that may not slow with McDavid and Draisaitl staring him down, Oettinger is used to workload and has been sharp all postseason. He is 2-1 against Edmonton this season, though he has allowed nine goals across his three starts against them.

As for Skinner, he was terrible to start the playoffs, allowing 11 goals in two games. He has since been dominant after taking over for the injured Pickard. He has allowed just four goals over his last three starts. He is coming off a road shutout that went into overtime, stopping all 24 shot attempts, but it is worth noting that his previous two road starts were abysmal. He also started all three regular season games against Dallas where he went 1-2 and allowed 11 goals.

Skaters to Watch

Dallas Stars:

  • After a dominating stretch to end the series against Colorado, Rantanen picked up just four points over his previous five games against Winnipeg.
  • Hintz has yet to go longer than three games without a goal. He has not recorded a goal over his last three games, expect a big show to open the series against Edmonton.
  • Mason Marchment, Robertson, Heiskanen, and Duchene have all combined for just 12 points. Expect Dallas to get some more production from their skaters in this series.

Edmonton Oilers:

  • McDavid has 134 points in 85 playoff games throughout his career, including 59 points over his last 36 games.
  • After recording 13 points through his first eight games, Draisaitl has just three points and zero goals over his last three games.
  • Perry and Kane have been incredible this postseason as the two veterans have combined for 14 points and nine goals.

Series Pick

We are set for an exciting rematch between these two squads. Dallas players new and old know they have been in this position for now the third straight season and will be looking to finally get over the hump. Shutting down McDavid and Draisaitl is a tough task, but Dallas is healthy, and battle tested, something that is hardly mentioned in the same sentence. Heiskanen and Robertson have some games under their skates and will be looking to be highly productive here. Duchene and Marchment have yet to get going offensively and the ice will get more and more open if Robertson and Heiskanen can contribute. Oettinger has been playing on another level all playoffs, especially at home, which gives Dallas a much better outlook in the blue paint than Edmonton. The Stars are a much deeper team, they are highly motivated to not only avenge their series loss last season, but to also get over the Conference Finals hump. This will be a more explosive Dallas team at full strength. Look for the Stars to get control of the series early and not let up till win number four.

My Pick: Dallas Stars to Win: -102, Series Total Games: Under 5.5 +168, Series Exact Games: 5 Games +260

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