Edmonton Oilers vs. Vegas Golden Knights Series Predictions and Best Bets

by Ryan Cobbett - 5/6/2025

The Western Conference Semifinals will begin with the Vegas Golden Knights hosting the Edmonton Oilers. Vegas found their way back from a 2-1 deficit against the Minnesota Wild and wrapped up the series in six games. However, they walked away from the series with a -1-goal differential. Edmonton eliminated the Los Angeles Kings for the fourth straight season. After falling in the first two games, Edmonton stormed back to when the next four as their offense has averaged five goals per game over their four-game winning streak. Vegas and Edmonton split the regular season series, with Edmonton winning the final two games.

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Team Summaries

Vegas found themselves in a 2-1 hole to begin the series against Minnesota, but they found a way to steal back-to-back overtime games and a late goal in Game Six propelled them into the second-round. Vegas hasn’t looked great on offense in the postseason as they averaged just 3.0 GF/G in the first round after averaging 3.34 GF/G during the regular season. They have cashed in on 27.8% of their power play chances, but their penalty kill has continued to be a weak spot for this team. Jack Eichel and Tomas Hertl lead the team with five points through their first six playoff games. Hertl is tied with Brett Howden as the team’s leading goal scorers with three a piece. Keegan Kolesar is the only Vegas player that has appeared in a playoff game to not register a point. Adin Hill has been in the net for all but 19 minutes of the Vegas playoff games. He has allowed 2.83 GA/G while recording a .880 SV%. However, he ended the series by allowing just seven goals in three games. Vegas has allowed 3.17 GA/G during the postseason which ranks fifth amongst remaining playoff teams. There are no injuries to report for Vegas as they head into the second round.

Unfortunately for Kings fans, their season ended at the hands of their big brother, the Edmonton Oilers, who have now eliminated them for the fourth consecutive season. Stuart Skinner started the postseason as the Oilers starting netminder, but after allowing 12 goals in two games they made the switch to Calvin Pickard. Pickard went on to allow just 12 goals over the final four games of the series and will be in the crease to start the series. The Oilers lead all postseason teams in scoring after averaging 4.50 GF/G against the Kings. They cashed in on 38.5% of their power play chances, but they had an abysmal 60% PK%. Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl got it done for Edmonton as they two combined for 22 points in the six first round games. Evan Bouchard found his touch as well as he recorded a team best four goals. Connor Brown was a pleasant surprise as well for the Oilers as he has five points (3g, 2a) through six games after posting just 30 points in 82 games during the regular season. While the move to Pickard gave Edmonton what they needed to take the series, he is by no means dominating. He allowed 2.93 GA/G while posting a .893 SV% against 121 shot attempts. The Oilers allowed four goals per game in the first round, which is the most amongst remaining playoff teams. Matthias Ekholm will likely miss the second round as well which does not help Edmonton’s efforts is limiting the oppositions offensive attack.

Goalie Matchup

Hill posted a 20-6-2 record on home ice this season while posting a .910 SV% in front of his fans. He will need to find the same production on home ice against Edmonton here to propel Vegas to the Conference Finals. He finished the first round in a better groove than how he started it as he allowed just seven goals in 85 shot attempts. However, you can expect an increase in the shots he will see from Edmonton. He went 2-2 in four starts against the Oilers this season and allowed 2.87 GA/G in those games. Hill has been incredible in 25 playoff appearances for Vegas as he has allowed just 2.28 GA/G and has recorded a .922 SV%.

As for Pickard, he performed much better in 18 road starts than he did in his 13 home starts during the regular season. Pickard went 13-5 on the road this season while allowing 2.54 GA/G which is significantly less than his 2.94 GA/G mark on home ice. Pickard won his lone start against Vegas this season as he allowed just two goals on 22 shot attempts. Pickard has limited postseason experience as he has amassed just six starts in his playoff career. He has allowed 2.69 GA/G and is an impressive 5-1 in the playoffs.

Skaters to Watch

Vegas Golden Knights:

Eichel recorded four points (1g, 3a) in four games against Edmonton during the regular season and he has averaged over a point per game through his first 35 playoff games.
Hertl and Mark Stone have combined for just two points in their three games against Edmonton this season.
Stone has just seven points over his last 13 playoff games while Hertl has just six in the same number of games.

Edmonton Oilers:

McDavid has 128 points (39g, 89a) in 80 playoff games throughout his career and has 53 points over his last 31 playoff games.
Draisaitl and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins combined for seven points in their four games against Vegas during the regular season.
Bouchard has four goals through six games this postseason after tallying just six goals in his 25 playoff games last season.

Series Pick

This should be an entertaining series as these are two very evenly-matched teams. Vegas will prove to be a tougher opponent than the Kings, but Edmonton’s offense was virtually unstoppable in the first round and I expect that to carry over into this series. Hill will have to be near perfect to slow down the McDavid led Oilers. Vegas should benefit from the goalie situation for Edmonton, but they don’t have the offense to keep up with Edmonton in shootout type games. Look for Edmonton to steal one early and then take control of the series after their two game homestand. The Oilers win this in six.

My Pick: Edmonton Oilers to Win: -110, Series Total Games: Over 5.5 -210, Series Exact Games: 6 Games +195

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Start:	May 6, 2025 @ 9:30 PM
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Edmonton Oilers vs. Vegas Golden Knights Series Predictions and Best Bets

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