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NHL Player Awards: Odds and Expert Betting Predictions

by Ryan Cobbett - 12/30/2025

NHL player awards predictions Macklin Celebrini San Jose Sharks

With the new calendar year on deck, now is the perfect time to reassess the futures market in terms of player awards. We have seen nearly 50% of the season from the players and coaches and have a solid sample size and outlook on the favorites for the awards. The Hart Trophy is a two-horse race, the Calder and Norris Trophy seem all but decided, while the Vezina Trophy and Jack Adams Award have no dominant favorite. Let’s dive into the numbers.

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Hart Trophy

Top Three

  1. Nathan MacKinnon -195
  2. Connor McDavid +185
  3. Macklin Celebrini +2200

While the domination that Celebrini has enjoyed thus far into the season is impressive, and has the Sharks in the thick of things, he is on the outside looking in when it comes to having a legit chance of taking home the league’s MVP Trophy. The two with a real shot, barring injury, are MacKinnon and McDavid. McDavid is the current league leader in points as he has 69 points on 24 goals and 45 assists, also the top mark in the league. However, he has a mere +2 +/- rating which is a factor in why he has just the second-best odds to win the Hart Trophy again. The other big factor is MacKinnon’s elite level of play, on the best team in the league (and maybe ever), and the fact that he has played in two less contests. The Avalanche have played in just 38 games compared to the 40 played by the Oilers. This means that despite McDavid’s current lead, it is MacKinnon who is on pace to lead the league when it is all said and done. MacKinnon currently has 66 points on 32 goals and 34 assists. He is the only player in the NHL to tally more than 25 goals. He also leads the league with an elite +48 +/- rating. Unless he suffers an injury, he is the league’s MVP this season.

My Pick: Nathan MacKinnon, -195

Calder Trophy

Top Three

  1. Matthew Schaefer -160
  2. Ivan Demidov +260
  3. Beckett Sennecke +460

The Calder Trophy race looks a little different thanks to the blueliner present. Schaefer is the lone blueline in contention for this award and is no doubt the favorite at this point in the season. Schaefer has put the Islanders firmly in the playoff picture, after an offseason of thinking the franchise was in rebuilding mode. While he does have the least amount of points (24) out of the Top Three, he does have the biggest impact on his team with a +8 +/- rating, while averaging 23:47 TOI/G. Demidov has made his mark on the season for Montreal as he is fourth on the team with 32 points and 10 goals, but he is averaging less than 15 minutes of ice time per game, and his +/- rating is far below Schaefer’s. As for Sennecke, he has 29 points with 11 goals at this point which is a solid rookie campaign, but in the shadows of Schaefer and Demidov.

My Pick: Matthew Schaefer, -160

Vezina Trophy

Top Three

  1. Logan Thompson +155
  2. Ilya Sorokin +250
  3. Igor Shesterkin +1200

The Vezina Trophy is by far the most enticing race to follow at this point in the season. With Connor Hellebuyck having suffered a lengthy injury, there is no clear dominant netminder. You have both Colorado goalies, but neither find themselves inside the Top Three. You have Brandon Bussi who leads the league in GA/G (2.08) though he only has 15 appearances, and he is also not inside the Top Three. The odds-on favorite to win the Vezina is Thompson who has 28 appearances and is allowing 2.33 GA/G on a .915 SV%. He is the only goalie, to have more than 25 appearances, who is allowing less than 2.50 GA/G. He is followed by Sorokin who has allowed 2.55 GA/G on a .910 SV% and Shesterkin who has allowed 2.51 GA/G on a .910 SV%. I am big fan of the value with Shesterkin at +1200. He has the most starts out of this group and he has been dominant in the crease for the Rangers despite the state of their franchise. He is a good value pick for now in a volatile market.

My Pick: Igor Shesterkin, +1200

Norris Trophy

Top Three

  1. Cale Makar -900
  2. Zach Werenski +400
  3. Quinn Hughes +1400

This one is all but decided. Makar is the clear-cut favorite to win the Norris Trophy this season. He leads all defensemen with 44 points, is third in goals (12), and first in assists (32). His 44 points ranks 14th in the NHL, and his 32 assists ranks sixth. He is also seventh in the NHL in TOI/G and his +/- rating of +33 leads all blueliners and ranks fourth in the NHL. He is the 2026 Norris Trophy winner, unless he gets injured.

My Pick: Cale Makar, -900

Jack Adams Award

Top Three

  1. Jared Bednar (Colorado) +155
  2. Joel Quenneville (Anaheim) +550
  3. Lindy Ruff (Buffalo) +600

Quenneville has had, perhaps, the most impressive season in terms of bursting onto the season. While Bednar is leading, what could be, the best team ever, Quenneville has taken a turtle on its back and flipped this franchise into playoff contention. The Ducks are currently on track to finish the season with 92 points, which would be a 12-point improvement from last season. Ruff also deserves his flowers as he has battled through an interesting internal state of the Buffalo franchise and has put them in the Wild Card race. Both of those coaches would be more favored if it were any other year. Unfortunately for those two bench coaches, Bednar has taken his sure-fire playoff lock of a roster and turned it into a historically dominant team that is on pace to break the single season points record, while also showcasing the league’s Hart and Norris Trophy favorites. It is well deserved for the Avalanche bench coach.

My Pick: Jared Bednar, +155

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