by Chris, the Impaler - 07/28/2005
The last time we bet reality TV we hit on both our picks for the winners of Survivor (Tom) and American Idol (Carrie) bringing our reality television record to 2-0. Sports investment firm, Bodog has hung lines for proposition bets on "popular culture" for Big Brother 6, Michael Jackson's proposed Vaterland move and the next celebrity to release a sex tape.
While we at Doc's Sports pride ourselves with providing high percentage winning picks for all the marquee sports, we also see the value in laying a few greenbacks on a collection of slackers with super-secret alliances displaying enough eye candy to make this writer spend a majority of his day trolling the message boards for screen captures of Big Brother's Janelle in the shower.
Julie Chen is back hosting Big Brother 6 in her tight outfits that only CBS Head Honcho Les Moonves (her boyfriend) could love. As houses go, the Big Brother 6 house boasts 47 cameras and 76 microphones that hear and see all. Over the next three months fourteen men and women will vie for a possible million dollars, with the runner-up winning $500,000 if first and second place winner remain with their alliance intact. The guests will live in total confinement, cut off from the outside world, while surrounded by secrets compounded by lies and competing for food, luxuries and, most importantly, power.
In case you have missed the first eight episodes of the show, the houseguests have been scheming and plotting for 26 days. Kaysar most recently won Head of Household when he won the tie-breaker by guessing the closest amount of total coconuts were in the total trees combined in the opening competition; wipeout. In case you wondered, the correct number was 184 coconuts.
Whether he is clairvoyant or it is obvious, King Kaysar nominates alliance members Maggie (also a Cappy Club founder - don't ask) and James for eviction. But when James wins the golden power of veto (with help) he puts up Eric on the block thereby destroying yet another double secret alliance between Eric and Maggie. One person will be voted off tonight and it will most likely be Boston firefighter Eric (who is listed at 2/1 for current Bodog Big Brother odds) whose muscle flexing had not ingratiated him to his housemates.
When it comes to brains, Kaysar (of Iraqi descent) and Janelle (plays the dumb blond but is anything but) complete the Mensa portion of the house while James and Sarah (double secret alliance) as well as Howie and Rachel could be the dumbest when they all but reveal their past relationships to King Kaysar. After the last episode we are led to believe that King Kaysar's alliance will include the Jedi Council as Darth Howie calls them. The most likely final six houseguests are Kaysar (6/1), Rachel (5/1), Howie (2/1), Janelle (8/1), James (5/1) and Sarah (7/1). Of these six finalists, four (Rachel - Howie, James - Sarah) will still have active double-secret alliances that Kaysar and Janelle will actively break-up. Look for them to prey on the strongest of each pair with Howie (2/1) and Sarah (7/1) getting booted in succession.
This leaves us with Big Brother 6 final four: Rachel, Janelle, Kaysar and James. It will be at this point we see if Kaysar was playing Janelle or if Janelle was really the brains behind Kaysar's succession to the throne. I can see James scheming with Rachel and Janelle to oust Kaysar from power and then watch Janelle steam roll, but this is an unlikely scenario.
I think Janelle's main problem is that she has alienated so many people in the house already that even if she made it to the final two she won't win. Even so, from what we have seen so far, the two strongest players are far and away Janelle and Kaysar and if they go up against each other; it will be the Iraqi Kaysar that beats the American Janelle.
I haven't been able to find a "proposition" for whether a secret alliance will remain intact to the end of Big Brother 6 that means it is a foregone conclusion that no secret alliance remains to the end.
Kaysar at 6/1 is the play.
Here are the listed Big Brother odds for the remaining houseguests courtesy of Bodog.
Howie - 2/1
Eric - 2/1
April - 4/1
Beau - 4/1
James - 5/1
Rachel - 5/1
Maggie - 6/1
Kaysar - 6/1
Sarah - 7/1
Jennifer - 7/1
Janelle - 8/1
Michael Jackson betting -- will the "King of Pop" take up permanent residence in Germany in 2005?
File under WTF?
No, actually it makes sense when you consider how well musical acts like "Michael Knight" Hasselhoff and the Scorpions have done in the Vaterland. Perhaps this bet would make more sense if Jackson was given probation or even found guilty to a lesser charge. But as far as our research shows, pedophilia is still not legal in Germany making a move highly unlikely for the man who does not stop until he gets enough.
Bet a few hundred on NO at -1.25 and you'll have some extra cash to bet on the BCS.
Who will be the next celebrity to have a sex tape released?
This is our favorite category of the pop-culture genre. Decisions, decisions, where is the public money going and what sort of handle does this "proposition" bet generate?
Bodog has hung lines on 16 likely celebrities who might seek extra exposure with a well-timed release. The favorite (whether this is wishful thinking or the odds men are women I am not sure) is Jude "Moneyshot" Law at 2/1. While he might "love" Huckabees he has enough publicity without adding a sex tape to his ever-expanding list of titles.
Tara Reid is one of the likelier candidates to film au natural at 3/1 although since we've all seen her botched boob job on the red carpet it is unlikely if she releases a sex tape anyone will see it. Demi Moore is also set at 3/1 but unless she gets Punk'd a sex videotape of Ms. Kutcher won't be on the Internet in the near future. LiLo (Lindsey Lohan) is set at 5/1 along with Orlando Bloom and Carmen Electra (of the favorites she might be the most likely, but again with her relationship with Navarro going well it won't happen, not even with the Worm).
Russell Crowe and Jamie Foxx are set at 7/1 so you can forget about a nocturnal emission from Oscar. And while I am sure there are plenty of women out there who would like to see Beckham bend it, it is more likely he'll play for DC United than release a posh video. At 30/1 Pamela Anderson has already released a lengthy sex tape so another won't come and Nicole Ritchie (20/1) is too busy looking in the mirror to make a sex tape with her stomach stapled beau. And while we'd like nothing more than to see Jessica Simpson (100/1) play a live action porno star that won't happen for Mrs. Lachey. With little to bet on we noticed 50/1 shot Anna Nicole Smith.
Unfortunately, this "proposition" bet does not include a "field" which would be the best bet of all. But in lieu of a "Field" bet, we love Anna Nicole Smith at 50/1 due to the fact she has lost a lot of weight, her television show is in the dumps and her fifteen-minute silver star has tarnished; these components make her a favorite for the next surreptitious release of a celebrity sex tape.
At 50/1 why not drop five bucks on Anna Nicole Smith and wait and see what pops up?