PGA Picks: 2025 BMW Championship Predictions and Golf Odds
The FedEx Cup Playoffs are heating up faster than early afternoon Arizona asphalt. We’re officially now down to 50 of the world’s best golfers remaining in the quest for the FedEx Cup.
Speaking of heat, it was a particularly calm and muggy weekend down in Memphis at the TPC Southwind for the St. Jude Championship. We were on the UK's Tommy Fleetwood, who carried a one-stroke lead heading into the final round on Sunday, but the heat must've gotten to him because the typically cool-blooded Brit is a strong finisher.
Not this week, though, as another Englander, the freshly 45-year-old Justin Rose, took J.J. Spaun to a playoff and eventually won the St. Jude Championship by a stroke. That brought the veteran up to 4th in the FedEx Cup Standings, which you will see below. We have the top 30 listed, but there are 50 remaining in the running, while we will take just 30 with us into next week’s Tour Championship at East Lake in Atlanta.
Now that we’re caught up and the stage is set, today we must do our best to predict a winner for this week’s FedEx Cup Playoff event, the BMW Championship from Caves Valley Golf Club in Owings Mills, Maryland, a suburb of Baltimore.
Northern Ireland's Rory McIlroy is back this week after conveniently, albeit strategically, skipping last week's event, as there was no way he could gain the #1 spot, nor lose his #2 if he played. Spaun, mentioned above, is now ranked 3rd, while FedEx Cup fresh face and two-time winner in 2025, Ben Griffin, ranks 9th. We should note that the 5th-ranked Sepp Straka has withdrawn from this week's action, virtually eliminating him from the chase for the Cup.
If you’re doing some of your own research, remember that the BMW Championship course bounces around from year to year. The only other time this tournament has been played at Caves Valley Golf Club was back in 2021, when Patrick Cantlay cruised into the clubhouse on Sunday with the biggest smile.
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FedEx Cup Standings
- Scottie Scheffler
- Rory McIlroy
- J.J. Spaun
- Justin Rose
- Sepp Straka
- Russell Henley
- Ben Griffin
- Tommy Fleetwood
- Justin Thomas
- Harris English
- Andrew Novak
- Cameron Young
- Ludvig Aberg
- Keegan Bradley
- Maverick McNealy
- Corey Conners
- Collin Morikawa
- Brian Harman
- Patrick Cantlay
- Robert MacIntyre
- Hideki Matsuyama
- Nick Taylor
- Shane Lowry
- Sam Burns
- Sungjae Im
- Chris Gotterup
- Jacob Bridgeman
- Viktor Hovland
- Ashkay Bhatia
- Lucas Glover
BMW Championship Winner Betting Odds
Scottie Scheffler: +230
Rory McIlroy: +625
Xander Schauffele: +1800
Ludvig Aberg: +1800
Patrick Cantlay: +1850
Tommy Fleetwood: +1900
Justin Thomas: +2200
Cameron Young: +2200
Sam Burns: +2700
Ben Griffin: +3000
Collin Morikawa: +3000
Viktor Hovland: +3200
Sungjae Im: +5500
Course Characteristics - Caves Valley Golf Club
Minus the ridiculously wide Plantation Course in Hawaii, the Caves Valley Golf Club has the most expansive fairways we’ve seen in PGA Tour play all year, at an average of nearly 40 yards. This course ranked 50th out of 51 sets of links in 2021, as evidenced by the scoring. Cantlay beat out the recent White House guest, Bryson DeChambeau, in a playoff to win with a score of 27 under par.
We’ll have Bentgrass greens and Kentucky Bluegrass roughs. The previously mentioned McIlroy dominates these greens with nine career Bentgrass victories, while Rose has 7, with Cantlay and Scottie Scheffler having 5.
BMW Championship Winner Betting Picks
Rory McIlroy: +625
With an extra week of not only rest but particular preparation, I love McIlroy in this spot. He also wants to silence all the haters/whiners who have been quite vocal in their displeasure with him skipping the St. Jude.
Outside of that, he finished 4th here in 2021, shooting 22 under for the weekend. We’ve already mentioned his penchant for Bentgrass greens, and otherwise, he really doesn’t have any flaws. If it weren’t for Scheffler, Rory would undoubtedly be the face of the PGA Tour.
Patrick Cantlay: +1850
The back-to-back BMW Champion, if you will, from 2021-22, Cantlay's style is ideally suited for this course. We also have to look at his current place of 19th in the FedEx Cup field. We only take 30 with us to next week, and the playoff points are weighted far more heavily than those during the "regular season".
How is his current form, though? Shouldn’t a golfer of his caliber be sitting slightly higher in the standings? It’s hard to say because before his 9th-place finish on Sunday, he had taken a few weeks off. I like that, though.
Cantlay is confident, and the vet knows his mind, body, and game better than ever at this point. I love him as a top ten bet, and for nearly 20-1, you have to throw some change on the 33-year-old to get the W.
Sungjae Im: +5500
Sungjae Im, the PGA Tour Rookie of the Year in 2019, hasn’t had his best season in 2025, but hear me out. He was a respectable 17th at St. Jude last week, so his form is not that bad. His best performance of the season came at the previously mentioned Plantation Course at The Sentry back in January, which also has those wide fairways.
Another thing to note is that in this week’s field of golfers, only McIlroy, Cantlay, Im, and Sam Burns have finishes better than 17th at the Caves Valley Golf Club. For 55-1, why not? He has a lot to gain, currently sitting just five spots inside the FedEx Cup cut line at 25th.
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