PGA Picks: Genesis Scottish Open Predictions and Golf Betting Odds
For golf bettors, if this doesn’t sound like a PGA Tour event from the past, you would be correct. The PGA Tour and DP World Tour (formally the European Tour) are working together on this tournament and it is an official stop for those likely to be playing in the British Open next week.
As part of the agreement, DP World Tour members can play at this week’s Barbasol Championship in Kentucky if they so choose. That event is sanctioned by both parties also.
This will be the 40th Scottish Open and the fourth straight at The Renaissance Club with 156 players teeing it up Thursday, including three from LIV Golf, who sued and won a stay to play this week.
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A Look at the Field of the Genesis Scottish Open
Here is a look at the Top 12 favorites and ties for golf odds this week.
Jon Rahm +1200 - Justin Thomas +1200 - Scottie Scheffler +1200 - Xander Schauffele +1600
Matthew Fitzpatrick +2000 - Collin Morikawa +2500 - Jordan Spieth +2500 - Patrick Cantlay +2500
Cameron Smith +2800 - Sam Burns +2800 - Will Zalatoris +2800
Hideki Matsuyama +3300 - Viktor Hovland +3300
Rahm, Thomas and Scheffler; take your pick. The U.S. Open performance (T-37) leaves questions about Thomas, and he’s never played well at the British Open, though this course is easier. Scheffler is just in a groove, yet he lacks experience on links courses, but was T-12 here in 2021.
Rahm has a quality record on links layouts; his short game has gone from pathetic to modestly average. And if the course is a little soft like last year, his brute strength comes into play.
Schauffele and Fitzpatrick are drawing a lot of attention from the betting public. These two won the previous two tournaments with stellar fields before the John Deere last week. Schauffele has heated up, his confidence is high, and he was T-10 here last year. Fitzpatrick won the U.S. Open and the runner-up at this course a year ago. Two good threats.
Morikawa and Spieth are like vanilla and chocolate ice cream, it depends on which you like better. Morikawa is a tremendous iron player who won the British Open last year, but his ball-striking has not been nearly as consistent this season. And he putted horribly here 52 weeks ago.
Other than a T-7 at the Schwab Challenge, only one other Top 20 in Spieth’s last five starts. As always, anything is possible for this Texan.
Cantlay and Matsuyama are black and white picks with no room for gray. Cantlay was in a position to win the Travelers and shot a final round 76. He still has three Top-15 finishes in his last four solo competitions.
Matsuyama has Top-5 finishes in two of his last four outings, and he has climbed to third in strokes gained approach and 10th in strokes gained tee-to-green. Does he keep building or use this as practice for next week?
Burns and Zalatoris have to be brought up each time they play in a significant tournament. Burns was T-18 on this track in 2021, and Zalatoris just keeps playing well and has the length to score exceeding well on the Par 5s.
Course Characteristics of Those Who Can Win or Secure Winning Golf Bets
The Scottish Open has grown in popularity over the years because its links-style design is a good test before the British Open. This allows those less familiar with this different type of golf to get used to what it takes and also for those that make the trip to adjust to the long fly over and reset their body clocks properly.
Pro golfers will find a par of 71, which is spread out at close to 7,300 yards. In the sense of a genuine links course, this one doesn’t quite fit the bill of those that have been around for decades in the United Kingdom.
Since The Renaissance Club was opened in 2008, it has more of a feel like those in the U.S., matching elements of the old and new.
The layout is unique, with four par fives and five par threes, three of which play over 200 yards. There are also five par fours that can play over 450 yards, but keep in mind that if the conditions are firm and fast the ball will go much further.
As with all links courses, off the tee, they are rather open. Trouble typically lurks in two ways. If the tee shot is errant, the rough almost always is thick and varies from hole to hole in density. This can fool players, sometimes hitting shots too long or too short towards the green.
The other aspect is the pot bunkers or deep bunkers, which come in all shapes and sizes. Depending on where the ball lands in them, a bogey could suddenly become a good score.
The next shot will decide who wins or finishes in the Top 10. How accurately one hits iron, either by precision or the bump and run aspect, to get close to the pin, will determine a golfer's week.
The greens will be slow by tour standard, as most near the coast are. They will have varying humps, and the ball will sometimes slide seemingly as opposed to roll. The breaks in the greens will be severe on various holes depending on daily pin placement.
None of these descriptions mean The Renaissance Club will be incredibly difficult. With the skill of the players, if they hit proper tee shots and can control their iron whacks, they will be fine and could have a good week.
The great unknown, seeing this is Scotland, is the weather. This could change day by day or every hour, and it will raise scores if it becomes a factor.
Expect the winner and Top 5 to finish in the -12 to -20 range in this loaded field.
Golf Picks: Who to Consider This Week
Jon Rahm and Scottie Scheffler both have Top 5 possibilities and look very good for Top 10s. Also, consider them for tournament head-to-heads up to -130.
For Top 10s, Xander Schauffele and Matthew Fitzpatrick are in good enough form and are well-suited to have - Shots Gained – from the fairway and approach. Their odds at press time were a bit heavy for Top 20 wagers; check to see what your sportbooks have.
Sam Burns and Will Zalatoris are more than capable of finishing in the Top 10. However, we’ll take the safe road and make them Top 20 picks at reduced odds with a better chance to cash.
For longer shots, Ryan Fox is a tempting choice always hanging around the leaderboard in the DP World Tour and is 3rd in Shot Gained: Approach. A good Top 20 play.
Max Homa was only T-47 at the U.S. Open, prior to that he had five straight Top 23s, including a Wells Fargo winner. He’s 5th Shot Gained: Approach on the PGA Tour and threat for a Top 20 at good odds.
Doug Upstone of Doc’s Sports was in the golf business for over 20+ years and understands the ins and outs of what it takes to find winners on the Tour. Doug has won four of the last six weeks in golf and is after a strong finish.
Doug Upstone of Doc’s Sports has - 23 Documented No. 1 Titles - 97 Documented Top 10 Finishes - 28 Handicapper of the Month Awards. (Latest: NBA March 2022) Doug as a professional handicapper/writer has written for various well-known sports betting websites and several football newsletters.