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2025-26 Ottawa Senators Predictions and Odds to Win Stanley Cup Finals

by Ryan Cobbett - 9/26/2025

Ottawa Senators predictions Tim Stutzle

Last season went better than expected for the Ottawa Senators as they cracked the playoff picture. They finished the season with 97 points, narrowly missing out on the final guaranteed spot in the Atlantic Division. Ottawa did finish in the top wild card spot and finished the season with a +9-goal differential.

Ottawa averaged 2.95 GF/G last season which ranked in the middle of the league rankings. Their power play ranked 12th in the league as they cashed in on 23.7% of their man advantage opportunities. As for the penalty kill, they ranked 19th in the league with a 77.7% PK%. Tim Stutzle led the Senators with 79 points and 55 assists. He was followed by Drake Batherson who finished with 68 points. Brady Tkachuk led the team with 29 goals, and he finished fourth with 55 points. Jake Sanderson was sandwiched between Batherson and Tkachuk with 57 points. Tkachuk, Batherson, and Stutzle were joined by Shane Pinto and Josh Norris as the five Ottawa players to reach the 20-goal mark on the year.

The goaltending didn’t improve as much as they wished when they acquired Linus Ullmark. They allowed 2.83 GA/G while their .907 SV% ranked seventh. Ullmark allowed 2.72 GA/G in his 44 appearances while maintaining a .910 SV%. Anton Forsberg did well as the backup as he allowed 2.72 GA/G in 30 appearances. Leevi Merilainen appeared in 12 games where he posted an 8-3-1 record and allowed just 1.99 GA/G. Mads Sogaard appeared in two games, but he struggled mightily as he allowed eight goals on 40 shot attempts.

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Seasons come and go, so now it’s time to take a look at what we can expect from the Ottawa Senators in 2025-26:

Ottawa Senators Key Additions/Losses

In terms of losses from last year’s playoff roster, Ottawa hasn’t lost much. They lost Forsberg to the Los Angeles Kings while Adam Gaudetter (26 points) signed with San Jose and depth pieces Travis Harmonic (seven points) and Matthew Highmore (six points) have found new homes as well.

As for the additions, Ottawa had a quiet offseason. Lars Eller is the only notable addition for Ottawa this season. The forward had 22 points (10 goals and 12 assists) for Washington and Pittsburgh last season.

Ottawa Senators X-Factors

Linus Ullmark- Ullmark’s 2.72 GA/G last season was the highest since the 2018/19 season when he was with Buffalo. While he did maintain a .910 SV% that number was also the lowers it has been since 2018. If Ottawa is to not only to return to the playoffs but try and make a run, Ullmark is going to have to improve on these numbers.

Front Office- This group made the playoffs and nearly took down Maple Leafs last season, but the front office was quiet during the offseason. They need to make some moves to maintain last year’s success and take it a step further. Adding another 20-goal scorer and more offensive depth is crucial for this Senators team.

Ottawa Senators Goalie Outlook

The outlook is grim. The Senators’ success this season is going to live and die with Ullmark. He had the worst numbers he has had in nearly seven years and now he is entering this new campaign at 32. Forsberg was incredible in a backup capacity last season, but with him being gone it is up to either Merilainen or Sogaard to take on a bigger workload. Merilainen did incredibly well in his 12 appearances last season, but the question remains on whether or not he can keep that same dominance with his ice time doubling or tripling. As for Sogaard, he can only improve. Regardless, any injury or further decline from Ullmark and Ottawa’s winning window may be slammed shut with the state of their goalie room.

Grade: C+

Ottawa Senators Key Schedule Stretch

March 11th-April 15th- This last chunk of the regular season will be huge for Ottawa. They struggled on the road last season and while it is hard to win on the road, it is necessary for any team with Stanley Cup aspirations. With that being said, this stretch includes 19 games with only seven of them on the road. This is a favorable lineup of games for an Ottawa team who will likely be in the middle of the wild card race. It doesn’t help that six of those seven road games are against playoff caliber opponents, but the strong home presence here is going to propel this Senators team into a more favorable position for the playoffs.

Ottawa Senators Notable Odds

Stanley Cup Champions: +3000

Conference Winner: +1400

Division Winner: +700

To Make the Playoffs- Yes: -170

Vezina Trophy- Linus Ullmark: +4000

Hart Trophy- Tim Stutzle: +50000

Ottawa Senators Prediction

Ottawa will return to the playoffs (-170) again this season. However, with the improvement of the New York Rangers as well as the wild card Columbus is, I do expect Ottawa to lose some points. While this team is a playoff caliber team, the uncertainty behind a declining Ullmark is unsettling while the roster lacks offensive depth. The front office will need to be ready to make another homerun like move like they did when they acquired Ullmark from Boston, or the run may end in the first round again. Ottawa manages to return to the playoffs this season, but the point total is going to fall under the 95.5 projected mark.

Under 95.5 Team Total Points

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