PGA Picks: 3M Open Odds and Expert Betting Predictions
As weird as it sounds, we have our first PGA Tour venue change in three weeks! That’s the world we are living in, thus, we have to roll with the punches.
We head north to the Land of 10,000 Lakes, which does not have quite that many golf holes. However, the state of Minnesota does have 400 golf courses. One of them is the TPC Twin Cities. This layout plays to 7,400+ yards, a par 71. This course was a longtime stop on PGA Tour’s Champions, before last year. This golf course opened in 2000 and is an Arnold Palmer design and used Tom Lehman, a Minnesota native, as a consultant.
This course has a rather significant risk-reward scenario, and it will be intriguing to see if that holds true again this year. In 2019, its first year on the tour schedule, TPC Twin Cities yielded the most birdies of any course but also saw the 11th-most double bogeys. In looking for golfers who can succeed and be useful for golf picks, they have to be strong tee to green and have skills of hitting irons tight to the pins, because all the Top 10 finishers will have to make birdies to remain in contention going into the back nine on Sunday.
These same players have to shake off bad holes immediately, something we did not see a lot of last week at The Memorial, where one bogey turned into two or sometimes even double bogeys. Holes 17 and 18 were significantly altered to play harder and give players the choice to “go for it,” knowing trouble lurks ahead with an errant shot.
Weaker Field Generates Opportunity for Others
Since returning to action, golf fans have been treated to excellent fields to watch on television. That pauses this week with only four of the Top 20 players in the field. Dustin Johnson and Brooks Koepka are both entered, with each coming off a tough week and looking to start building momentum to the end of the season.
Tommy Fleetwood makes his first start on the Tour since its reboot, while Tony Finau will look to play like he did the first 47 holes in Ohio, not the last 25 on the weekend, when he went +10 in the latter segment.
This sets up taking a look at long shots to win this tournament or making Top 5, 10 or 20 finishes against the golf odds.
Golf Odds: The 3M Open Favorites
Here is a look at the latest PGA Tour odds for this tournament, looking at the Top 10 with ties, which includes the defending champion Matthew Wolff.
Dustin Johnson +1100 - Brooks Koepka +1400 - Tommy Fleetwood +1400 - Tony Finau +1400
Paul Casey +2000 - Matthew Wolff +2200 - Harris English +2800 - Lucas Glover +2800
Bubba Watson +3300 - Doc Redman +3300 - Erik Van Rooyen +3300 - Russell Henley +3300
One of Johnson’s best traits is he doesn’t dwell on bad performances. Sure, he hung a pair of 80’s last week, but DJ won’t hang on to those numbers, especially at a place where he could shoot 63 in any round.
On the surface, Koepka and Fleetwood are more problematic. Koepka just isn’t reliable right now, while Fleetwood is making debut, and showing rust should not shock anyone generating PGA picks.
Casey seems a safe bet after making his first start last week, being an excellent tee to green player. Finau should be a more confident player with less difficult conditions. Wolff has the right skill set for this course and was a respectable tied for 22nd last week. Glover played consistent, not great, golf, but could catch fire with a Top 20 Thursday start.
Watson and Van Rooyen are equal parts Top 10 or miss the cut candidates.
Golf Odds: 3M Open Picks
My free picks stunk here last week, and I’m out to rebound.
Because Johnson missed the cut last week, his +215 odds are better than what you might have expected for a Top 5 finish. Both Wolff (+450 and +225 respectively) and Casey (+450 and +225) offer solid choices with decent payouts for Top 5 and Top 10 wagers. Casey also seems like a good pick for Top European player at +350.
For prop bets, I would not be surprised if someone gets hot in the final round and builds a working margin and will take - Winning Margin, 2 strokes – at +375.
Patrick Rodgers quietly finished T-18th last week, while numerous bigger names slipped well below him. Because he’s so long, he will have a chance to make birdies and at +200, he's a real threat for a Top 20 finish again.
Doug Upstone of Doc’s Sports has 21 documented No. 1 titles and finished in the Top Ten 80+ other times in a distinguished career. Doug as a professional handicapper/writer has written for various well-known sports betting websites and several of the football newsletters you have read before.
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