PGA Picks: The Farmers Insurance Open Golf Odds and Expert Betting Predictions
The PGA Tour moves from the California desert to the thicker air of the Pacific Ocean just north of San Diego for this week’s tour stop.
The world’s No. 1 player, Jon Rahm, is scheduled to appear, and he had plenty to say after four days in the LaQuinta area. Rahm was the tournament favorite for that event and finished T-14th at -14 and had thought this. “Piece of s--- f---ing set-up,” the Spaniard was picked up as saying as he walked off one green. “This is a putting contest week.”
With the three winners at -80 under par in just three tournaments, Rahm is exactly correct, and the PGA Tour and its players are completely responsible for the absurdity.
This week we should have a truer test of golf as just once since 2015 has a winning player shot below -15 at Torrey Pines (Justin Rose 2019). Though it doesn’t matter for golf betting, per se, these embarrassing numbers would be like if every NFL game was 55-50 and quarterbacks were routinely throwing for 400 or more yards. This would become old quick.
This tournament was moved to Wednesday to Saturday, to avoid the NFL Conference Championship now that they are a week later. The Golf Channel will have exclusive coverage Wednesday and Thursday and CBS on Friday and Saturday, with the last two days in a more prime time window of 5-8 and 4:30-8 Eastern Time.
Get free golf picks for every event on Doc’s Sports PGA golf expert picks page.
A Look at the Field
Here is a look at the Top 12 and ties with the lowest golf odds to win it all at online sportsbooks.
Jon Rahm +700 - Justin Thomas +1600 - Xander Schauffele +1600 - Bryson DeChambeau +2000
Dustin Johnson +2000 - Hideki Matsuyama +2000 - Sam Burns +2200 - Daniel Berger +2500
Tony Finau +2500 - Brooks Koepka +3000 - Marc Leishman +3000
Scottie Scheffler +3000 - Sungjae Im +3000 - Will Zalatoris +3000
Rahm is the elephant in the room with four Top 10s at Torrey Pines and a victory there in the 2021 U.S. Open.
Maybe because of Rahm, Thomas, DeChambeau and Johnson are receiving very little buzz for golf picks. Because their odds are this low and they don’t hold much value elsewhere, that is a likely reason.
Who is getting a buzz is Schauffele, Burns and Finau. Xander is a local San Diego product. And after missing the cut four of five years, he finished T2 and T7 at the Open last year. Burns' worst finish in six starts this year is T19th, and he’s 39th in driving distance and 15th in scoring. Finau, in seven career starts at the Farmers, his finishes are: second, sixth, 13th, sixth, fourth, 18th, 24th.
Im shockingly missed the cut at the Sony in Hawai’i, but his five other starts are similar to Burns, all in the Top 20 and he’s 13th in greens in regulation.
Zalatoris was 7th last week and has shown he can handle tough tracks and the longer the better for his skill set.
Course Characteristics of Those Who Can Win or Secure Winning Golf Bets
The 156 players will tee it up Wednesday on two Torrey Pines layouts, the North and South courses. The North Course is the simpler layout and will be used for the first two days. Every player will look to score extremely well on the Par 72, 7,258-yard track, which is more than 500 yards shorter than its counterpart to the south.
With the rough not long, distance off the tee is a must, with accuracy less important. Only two courses on the tour give up more eagles than the North course (LaQuinta C.C. from last week is one). That makes putting up low numbers on the Par 5’s a must if you expect to play on the weekend.
The South Course is also par 72 that from the tips is 7,765 yards. With seven of the par 4’s 450 or more yards, and three of the par 5’s longer than 570 yards (two are 615+ yards), every professional will have a chance to use every club in the bag. Additionally, three of the par 3’s are past 200 yards in length.
The winner and contenders will have to be shot-makers. You will have to be long enough off the tee, with the ability to dial in the variety of irons that will come into play. The greens will not be overly quick, being at sea level.
A big part of playing at Torrey Pines, especially this time of year, is one's ability to adapt to conditions. The early morning fog will curtail distance, but most days that will burn off and both courses will play faster once the sun is out for about 45 minutes.
Though there should be a type that plays well here, it’s best to find out who has longer-term success in order to win more bets.
Golf Picks: Who to Consider This Week
Rahm makes a lot of sense for a Top 5 finish when considering the best value. Unfortunately, even head-to-head wagers will have him as a solid favorite, which subtracts any value.
If you like Schauffele, best to use him for a Top 10 and possibly head-to-head action.
From there, Burns Finau and Zalatoris all offer strong possibilities to cash Top 10’s and 20’s, And if you feel most adventuresome, various group wagers could work.
For some longer shot wagers in a top 20 or Top 30, take a closer look at Lanto Griffin, Ryan Palmer and Francesco Molinari.
Doug Upstone of Doc’s Sports was in the golf business for over 20+ years and understands the ins and outs of what it takes to find winners on the Tour. The past two weeks, he’s picked up +665 of profit.
Doug Upstone of Doc’s Sports has - 23 Documented No. 1 Titles - 96 Documented Top 10 Finishes - 2 Handicapper of the Month Awards. (Latest: MLB September 2021) Doug as a professional handicapper/writer has written for various well-known sports betting websites and several football newsletters.