PGA Picks: Valero Texas Open Golf Odds and Expert Betting Predictions
With The Masters just a week away, the PGA Tour spends one more week in Texas before heading east to Georgia. As is the case of any field before a major, especially at Augusta, you are here because you didn’t get an invite or qualify for next week, or you want one last chance for a tuneup to be ready to go in Georgia.
A field of 144 will tee it up, and the usual cut rules apply to play on the weekend. Jordan Spieth is here to defend his title, and a few other top guys will also be teeing it up.
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A Look at the Field
Here is a look at the Top 12 and ties with the lowest golf odds to win it all at online sportsbooks.
Rory McIlroy +800 - Jordan Spieth +1400 - Corey Conners +1800 - Abraham Ancer +2000
Hideki Matsuyama +2000 - Bryson DeChambeau +2500 - Chris Kirk +2800
Gary Woodland +2800 - Maverick McNealy +3300 - Si Woo Kim +3300 - Tony Finau +3300
Adam Hadwin +4000 - Jason Day +4000 - Keegan Bradley +4000
This contingent is an odd collection of players. McIlroy passed on the Match Play last week. And while he wants to get his game better tuned, given his odds and presumed intention, winning is not the priority as he would rather have all aspects of his game to come together.
Speith is a fan favorite who loves playing in the Lone Star State. He has an advantage in knowing how to play in the wind. His best finish since finishing 2nd at Pebble Beach is T-26, and he has not been sharp.
Conners seems like an obvious choice. However, players that play well in the Match Play event, typically don’t fare well after playing six matches in five days.
Until we see more from DeChambeau, Finau and Day, it is best to back away from them for the time being.
Two players that seem primed to do well are Matsuyama and Ancer. Matsuyama withdrew from The Players to nurse an ailing back, looking to get healthy to defend his Masters' title. He’s gained 1.58 strokes per round in 2022, which is the best for anyone with 24 rounds played.
This is Ancer’s type of course, where the hardness will add distance to go along with his ranking of 11th in driving accuracy.
For sharp golf bettors, take a closer look at Woodland, Kirk and McNealy. Each has the type of game that fits this layout and is generally in good form and could rise to the occasion.
Course Characteristics of Those Who Can Win or Secure Winning Golf Bets
The Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio has hosted the Texas Open since 2010, and the scorecard for these players has a par 72 that stretches to 7,438 yards, which is considered on the longer side.
The perception of the players about hitting drives is that the fairways are generous for landing areas, when in fact they are narrower than the Tour average. However, because the first cut of the rough is similar to Augusta, it gives the appearance of that being the case.
The greens on this layout are slower than Tour standards, with a stimp meter reading around 11, compared to 12 at most other layouts. For those players less skilled with the flat stick, that is a benefit, and the pros will use the practice rounds to adjust their speed.
Given these factors, one might think the pros would tear this joint up. However, the wind is a definite factor and can take errant shots well off track and get into the head of players, making them apprehensive about club selection or what trajectory to apply.
This week, those finishing in the Top 10 will have a good week in shaping drives and doing the same with the shots into the green. Once on the putting surface, it's about reading the greens properly and being fearless enough to putt for birdies and confident that if the ball rolls three feet by the hole, they will knock it in for a par.
Golf Picks: Who to Consider This Week
Once again, not much value in looking at Top 5’s not knowing the intentions of the top players and who could rise up.
For Top 10’s, Matsuyama and Ancer appear to have the game to stay steady for all four rounds and head-to-head action.
The aforementioned Woodland, Kirk and McNealy have games to finish in the Top 20, and we’ll include Keegan Bradley as a possibility.
We are not high on Conners. And if you can find head to heads matching him against any mentioned for “Golf Picks”, we would take a close look.
Doug Upstone of Doc’s Sports was in the golf business for over 20+ years and understands the ins and outs of what it takes to find winners on the Tour.
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Doug Upstone of Doc’s Sports has - 23 Documented No. 1 Titles - 96 Documented Top 10 Finishes - 27 Handicapper of the Month Awards. (Latest: 3 in MLB last year) Doug as a professional handicapper/writer has written for various well-known sports betting websites and several football newsletters.
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