RBC Heritage Predictions with Betting Odds and Expert Picks
With the Masters in the books as the first major of the year, the PGA Tour returns to a familiar spot at Hilton Head in South Carolina for the RBC Heritage at Harbour Town Golf Links.
Harbour Tour is not a particularly long course (7,121 yards Par 71), yet it has ample character. Throughout the first three-quarters of the course are tree-lined holes and plenty of doglegs. Because of the height of the trees, it makes it nearly impossible for even professional golfers to try and cut down on the length of certain holes.
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The fairway shots to the greens are well guarded by water hazards and bunkers. However, for the pros, this is less menacing. What is very noticeable are the small Bermuda greens that average only about 3,700 square feet per green, making them the second-smallest on the Tour. Consider the average size is 6,600 square feet.
Once players get to the 16th hole, we start to see water and open space, which makes for good viewing over the final three holes.
A Look at the Field
Here are the golf odds for the Top 12 contenders to win this week:
Dustin Johnson +1200 - Webb Simpson +1400 - Patrick Cantlay +1800 - Collin Morikawa +2000
Daniel Berger +2200 - Matthew Fitzpatrick +2800 - Tyrrell Hatton +2500 - Will Zalatoris +2500
Corey Conners +3000 – Cameron Smith +3000 - Paul Casey +3300 - Abraham Ancer +3300
It’s fair to say that only four golfers will enter this event feeling good about last week based on their results at Augusta. That would be Zalatoris, who was runner-up, Conners (T8), Smith (T10) and Simpson (T12).
Hatton, Morikawa, Ancer and Casey didn’t have bad weeks finishing in the Top 30, but coming in each had higher expectations.
Johnson, Berger and Cantlay will certainly have something to prove after missing the cut in Georgia.
Characteristics of Those Who Can Win or Secure Winning Golf Bets
As opposed to most tour events, driving distance means little at Harbour Town. Accuracy off the tee also has less value, unless you bury a few around into the trees. This is a typical Pete Dye design where you have to think tee to green. That places a premium on Strokes Gained Tee to Green and Strokes Gained Putting.
Because of the size of the greens, the field only hits the putting surface in regulation at 58 percent of the time, the smallest number on the Tour. That means second shots on Par 4’s have to be on target to putt for birdies. On the Par 5’s, the skillful approach and having the right angles to get tight is imperative to gain strokes.
Forget Webb Simpson’s winning score of -22 last year. That was played in June because of Covid when the humidity is up and the course is softer. Before last year, only twice in the previous 10 years had the winner shot -13 or lower.
Here is a list of competing golfers this week who have gained the most strokes per round tee to green with a minimum of 10 rounds played at Harbour Town.
Patrick Cantlay – +2.55 - Luke Donald – +2.00 - Matt Kuchar – +1.72 - Webb Simpson – +1.56
Rory Sabbatini – +1.54 - Branden Grace – +1.5 1- Russell Knox – +1.46
C.T. Pan – +1.44 - Tyrrell Hatton – +1.32 - Kevin Na – +1.28
Golf Picks: Who to Consider This Week
For PGA golf picks, this writer has to admit to not being a big fan of picking the winner, because so many aspects are in play over 72 holes. If you are looking to make a small wager, Matt (don’t call Matthew anymore) Fitzpatrick is a solid choice and he’s someone to consider for Top 5 (+400) and definitely Top 10 (+175). He was a lackluster T34 at the Masters last week, never firing. If you let last week go and skip the Match Play event, in his prior four tourneys his worst finish was T11.
One cannot overlook the defending champion Webb Simpson, whose game perfectly fits this course. He’s not long, but extremely accurate with his driver and precise with iron play. When Simpson starts knocking down pins, he can start rolling in those short putts for birdie. A great selection for Top 5 (+200) and Top 10 (+130) and look closely at the “Webb-er” for tournament and daily head-to-head matchups.
If you are looking at Top 20 action play for golf bets, take notice of Abraham Ancer. Since the Masters last November, he’s finished anywhere from T5 to T26th in 12 PGA Tour starts (two missed cuts). Ancer is second in driving accuracy and 14th in greens in regulation and should be money in this one.
Doug Upstone of Doc’s Sports was in the golf business for over 20+ years and understands the ins and outs of what it takes to find winners on the Tour. It was with this event last year Doug got hot and picked up $4,660 profit over nine tournaments.
Doug Upstone of Doc’s Sports has - 21 Documented No. 1 Titles - 94 Documented Top 10 Finishes - 24 Handicapper of the Month Awards. Doug as a professional handicapper/writer has written for various well-known sports betting websites and several football newsletters.