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2025-26 Toronto Maple Leafs Predictions and Odds to Win Stanley Cup Finals

by Ryan Cobbett - 9/30/2025

Toronto Maple Leafs predictions Auston Matthews

The Toronto Maple Leafs were finally able to win some in the playoffs this past year. They escaped a series comeback by Ottawa as the Maple Leafs took the series in six games and then they took Florida all the way to Game Seven where they ultimately fell short of reaching the Conference Finals. They did win the Atlantic Division as they finished the season with 108 points, and they had a +37-goal differential on the year.

The Maple Leafs averaged 3.26 GF/G which ranked seventh in the league while their 24.8% PP% ranked ninth. One weakness Toronto had was their penalty kill, as they ranked 17th in the NHL with a 77.9% PK%. Mitch Marner was the points leader for this Toronto team last season as he finished the year with 102 points on 27 goals and 75 assists. William Nylander took over as the biggest goal threat for the Leafs as he led the team with 45 goals and he finished second on the team with 84 points. Auston Matthews finished the season with 78 points (33 goals, 45 assists) despite playing in just 67 games last season. John Tavares finished fourth on the Leafs with 74 points while scoring 38 goals last season including 12 on the power play. Matthew Knies was a key role player who emerged last season for Toronto as he finished the season with 58 points on 29 goals and 29 assists.

The goaltending wasn’t as sharp as the offense, but they still ranked inside the Top 10 in the league in GA/G as they allowed 2.79 GA/G which ranked eighth in the league. Joseph Woll led the way with 42 appearances, and he allowed 2.73 GA/G on a .909 SV%. Anthony Stolarz appeared in 34 games and finished with a 21-8-3 record and he allowed just 2.14 GA/G on a .926 SV%.

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Seasons come and go, so now it’s time to take a look at what we can expect from the Toronto Maple Leafs in 2025-26:

Toronto Maple Leafs Key Additions/Losses

The biggest loss by far is the subtraction of Mitch Marner who was dealt to Vegas earlier in the offseason, breaking up the Core Four. Marner led the team last season in points and will now be joining up with Jack Eichel to win in the Western Conference. Aside from Marner, there were not any other significant losses to the Maple Leafs roster.

In return for Marner is center Nicolas Roy who had 31 points (15 goals, 16 assists) with Vegas. They also acquired Dakota Joshua from Vancouver. Joshua had 14 points (seven goals, seven assists) in 57 games last season. Vinni Lettieri signed with Toronto after tallying five points in 26 games with Boston last season.

Toronto Maple Leafs X-Factors

Toronto Terrific Trio- Now without Marner; Tavares, Matthews, and Nylander are left to continue the winning ways in Toronto. Knies will be looked to for more offensive production, but the rest of the roster does not showcase a lot of potential to even begin to fill the hole left by Marner. Will the trio of Nylander, Matthews, and an aging Tavares be enough?

The Depth- With such a heavy loss in Marner, the Maple Leafs will not only be relying on the aforementioned trio, but they also need to find some depth whether internally or externally. Bobby McMann was another player to reach the 20-goal milestone while Nicholas Robertson tallied 15 in just 69 games. If Knies, McMann, and Robertson can take a step forward then Toronto will be in good shape, if not it may be a rocky season.

Toronto Maple Leafs Goalie Outlook

Woll and Stolarz form an incredible dup for the Maple Leafs. Stolarz continues to be an elite netminder in his limited action throughout the season while Woll did well last season putting together the best season of his young career. Woll is away from the team for personal reasons, which means Dennis Hildeby will be forming a tandem with Stolarz for now. Hildeby allowed 3.33 GA/G in six games last season. Once Woll returns, expect Toronto to have one of the best goaltending situations in the NHL.

Grade: A-

Toronto Maple Leafs Key Schedule Stretch

March 21st-April 15th- The final 12 games of the season are going to be tough and taxing for the Maple Leafs. Over this 12-game stretch eight of those games are on the road while the stretch features eight playoff caliber teams, some of whom will be pushing for a wild card or a more favorable seeding. The stretch starts with a two-game road trip to Ottawa and Boston before the return to New York to take on the Rangers. After their match with the Rangers the Maple Leafs will go on a four-game road trip with stops in St. Louis, Anaheim, San Jose, and Los Angeles. Once they get through the trip they have a road game against the Islanders, back-to-back home games against Florida and Dallas and then a road game against Ottawa to end the season.

Toronto Maple Leafs Notable Odds

Stanley Cup Champions: +1600

Conference Winner: +750

Division Winner: +300

Vezina Trophy- Joseph Woll: +6600

Vezina Trophy- Anthony Stolarz: +2500

Hart Trophy- Auston Matthews: +1800

Hart Trophy- William Nylander: +15000

Toronto Maple Leafs Prediction

Losing Marner is going to make things interesting. It remains to be seen whether or not the trio of Tavares, Matthews, and Nylander will be able to fill the Marner hole on their own or whether or not Knies and company to take steps forward. Woll missing time does make things interesting as well in regard to the point total. Toronto should still be a solid team that could not only win the division, but also make a deep playoff run. The Maple Leafs could also look to add at the deadline which could boost the offense without Marner. Take the over on the win total, though Woll does need to get back sooner than later.

Over 101.5 Team Total Points

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