PGA Picks: Wells Fargo Championship Predictions and Betting Odds
Like in sports and life, sometimes it is better to be lucky than good. That’s what seems to have happened to the Well Fargo Championship being held in Charlotte at the Quail Hollow Club.
With the moving of the PGA Championship from August to May, this becomes an ideal spot to attract top golfers who want one last tune-up for a major coming off The Masters. That makes this a terrific landing spot for the Wells Fargo organizers.
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This tourney was missed last year for obvious reasons. Otherwise, Quail Hollow has been the host course all but one year since 2003 when this event was played. The one-off year was 2017 when it held the PGA Championship.
Max Homa is the defending champ, and Rory McIlroy has won here twice (2010-15). The field will include four of the Top 5 golfers, according to the numbers.
A Look at the Field
Here is a look at the Top 12 and ties with the lowest golf odds to win it all.
Jon Rahm +1100 - Justin Thomas +1100 - Bryson DeChambeau +1400 - Rory McIlroy +1800
Xander Schauffele +1800 - Viktor Hovland +2000 - Webb Simpson +2200 - Will Zalatoris +2500
Patrick Cantlay +2800 - Patrick Reed +2800 - Tony Finau +2800 - Corey Conners +3300
Joaquin Niemann +3300 - Max Homa +3300
Rahm was T5 at the Masters and 7th two weeks later in New Orleans. He was only 58th at the aforementioned PGA Championship four years ago here, but his form remains solid.
Thomas did everything well last week except putt at Innisbrook. He later said "if I'm putting well this week (at Quail Hollow), I'm winning this tournament without question." However, in three previous starts here, he’s lost strokes to putting.
DeChambeau will get a lot of attention from sportsbooks since this course favors big bombers. And as long as you don’t find deep trouble, players like him will have shorts irons into greens if not always from ideal locations.
Victor Hovland deserves a look with three consecutive Top 25’s, including a T3 last week, with four rounds in the 60s, including a closing round 65.
Webb Simpson is among the favorites, just with conflicting information. As mentioned, this tournament favors long hitters, which Simpson is not. However, this is his home course, so few know more about where to hit the ball to score.
Cantlay, Finau and Niemann offer as many questions as answers with how they have played of late, though each is capable, as the odds suggest.
McIlroy looks like a baseball pitcher, who normally works fast but slows everything down when out of rhythm, which he is today.
The defending champ Homa is like a faucet, hot or cold. Including winning The Genesis Invitational in February, since Valentine’s Day weekend, he’s had five Top 22’s and two missed cuts in seven starts in regular stroke play.
Course Characteristics of Those Who Can Win or Secure Winning Golf Bets
This track has length, checking in at more than 7,500 yards. The course is tree-lined. However, that will only matter on truly errant tee shots. There are nine par 4’s of 449 or more yards, with five at 480 or more yards in length. With the greens mostly well-guarded with bunkers, lousy tee shots or placements will lead to lower greens in regulation, hitting irons with less loft. Long hitters with at least average accuracy have an advantage.
The greens are fast, registering a 12 to 13 on the stimp meter. Golfers with distance control will do better here because on downhill putts they won’t blow it by the hole five/six feet, which makes for hard par putts or lost birdie attempts.
With greens having a lot of slope, the wiser players will respect pin placements and take fewer chances on those holes daily and pick their spots to hunt down birdies.
Golf Picks: Who to Consider This Week
Though Justin Thomas had a balky putter last week despite centering everything else he hit, he’s clearly real close to winning again. Thomas should be considered for the win, Top 5 and Top 10 and, nearly every head-to-head matchup at a reasonable price.
Harold Varner III is getting love this week seeing this is his home course. Yes, he did finish T2 at the Heritage, but that was sandwiched between two missed cuts. Instead, check out Webb Simpson, who also has a home game and who finished T12 and T9 in his last two starts. Though not long off the peg, he’s No. 1 in scrambling, which could lead to a Top 10 or better finish for golf picks.
Victor Hovland is 7th in scoring and 2nd in birdie average and looks poised for a superior four-day effort. A serious threat for multiple picks this week.
Doug Upstone of Doc’s Sports was in the golf business for over 20+ years and understands the ins and outs of what it takes to find winners on the Tour.
Doug Upstone of Doc’s Sports has - 21 Documented No. 1 Titles - 94 Documented Top 10 Finishes - 24 Handicapper of the Month Awards. Doug as a professional handicapper/writer has written for various well-known sports betting websites and several football newsletters.