World Series Futures Odds and Analysis
by Trevor Whenham - 02/12/2008
Check below this article for up-to-the-minute updated World Series future odds from Bodog.
It seems almost impossible to believe, but baseball season is here again. Pitchers and catchers will start reporting to major league camps this week, and by the end of the month spring training will be going in full force in Arizona and Florida. Soon enough we'll be able to take looks at how rosters are shaping up, and see if the superstars around the league look like they are ready to play and win. Before we get there, though, we can use this time to look for value in the World Series futures odds that are available.
Before we seek out value for World Series odds, it only makes sense to quickly eliminate the obvious spots where there is no value available. There's no point in betting on the Red Sox or the Yankees at this point in the season. I would suggest that any value has been bet out of these teams already, but since these teams are the two most public squads in baseball, the oddsmakers omit any value that might be present before they even post their lines. Similarly, the Mets and their new and improved rotation have drawn more attention than is likely warranted, and are priced right out of my range of interest. The love affair with Detroit continues this year. They are at the same price as the Yankees, so they are just about as interesting. It's not that any of those four teams won't win. In fact, there's a good chance that one of them will. The problem is that the idea of tying up my money for the whole season for a shot at a payout of 5/1 or less doesn't sound too exciting. Instead, if I were so inclined, I would look towards these five teams for more value (World Series futures odds are from Bodog):
Arizona (22/1) - Late in the season last year we saw how good this team can be. They are young and talented and they have a lot of very solid pitching. They are a step behind Detroit and Boston, but not as big a step as this price would indicate. In my mind they stand at least as good a chance of winning it all as the Angels (10/1) or the Cubs (12/1), so they are pretty attractive at twice the price.
Seattle (25/1) - If you have read my writing in the past then you probably know that I am pretty high on the Mariners. They had a pretty good thing going for a lot of last year, and things will only be brighter this season. Their one-two punch at the top of the rotation of Erik Bedard and Felix Hernandez is as good as any in the league, and opposing batters are going to be struck out an awful lot. They have the bats to be competitive, and they play in a division that is as weak as it has been in several years. I am very optimistic that this team is playoff bound. That's the first step towards paying off on this bet.
San Diego (25/1) - I was quite surprised when I saw this price. It was only bad luck and one of the hottest streaks in recent memory by the Rockies that kept them out of the playoffs. They are, for the most part, the same team as last year, and their pitching is exceptional at the top of the rotation. They are not a team that is used to tons of success, but they have been fairly consistently competitive, and I would have guessed that they would have settled closer to 20/1. That means we have some value.
Milwaukee (30/1) - We have seen the Brewers grow up right in front of our eyes the last couple of years. They are a very young team, but they have loads of power, and they have enough starting pitching to compete. They came up just short of the playoffs last year, but they are a year older and wiser now. I am a bit worried that a few of their players could be due for a step back after big years last year, but they won't disappear entirely. They are far from guaranteed to win it all, but 30/1 is a fair price in a 30-team league, and I like their chances better than a lot of other teams, so the Brew Crew is worth a look.
Minnesota (40/1) - Sure, they lost the best pitcher in baseball and they didn't get a lot of immediate help in return. I just get very nervous when I think about counting the Twins down and out. They are young and full of questions, but there is something in the water in Minnesota - bigger miracles than this have happened in the past. You can call these guys my live longshot.