The Most Common MLB Baseball Betting Mistakes to Avoid
We are now into the "unofficial" second half the Major League Season, and it has been one hell of a ride so far. There have been blowouts, pitching duels, ejections, injuries, trade speculation, a potentially controversial home run derby result, and a surprisingly entertaining All-Star Game. As bettors, the mid-summer break always seems to catch us at the right time. It gives us time to rest and focus our attention elsewhere for a short period of time. It also gives us time to analyze the data and records we have kept, starting with any futures plays and every wager since then.
Baseball is one of the toughest sports to wager on. It's a 162-game marathon that requires more patience than any other sport. The lines are generally overpriced due to mismatches, and the bankroll can be depleted in a hurry if you are not careful. If you are still in business with a solid bankroll, well done. Your handicapping is working to some degree and has gotten you this far. I wish nothing but profit for the remaining games this season.
If you are struggling with keeping the bankroll in the black, I would recommend memorizing this article as it will give you a handful of common MLB mistakes to avoid whilst wagering on this tricky sport. Even if your bankroll is in the black, a little refresher never hurt anyone.
Use The Data Available to You
Whether you are new to betting on baseball or a veteran, the first thing you must know is that baseball is the most measurable sport among the four major North American sports. For every single action in every single game, data is taken and recorded for statistical purposes. The most common mistake you can make when betting on baseball is ignoring what the data tells you.
I understand that every handicapper has their own formula or process when deciding how to wager on the MLB, but it would be very foolish of you to ignore the data and go with a "gut reaction"-type approach. Don't get me wrong, you need intuition to be a profitable sports bettor, but relying solely on that is a mistake you cannot afford to make.
If you do decide to go the data analysis route, it may feel quite daunting at first. As I mentioned, every single action in every single game has data recorded for it. I suggest starting with small segments, say one specific team, in order for you to understand the data and how the data can help you while placing your wagers.
Starting Pitcher Bias
Long gone are the days when a starting pitcher would go out and pitch eight or nine innings while throwing 90+ pitches on a regular basis. Baseball has changed, and as bettors we must change with it or be left betting a game that no longer exists. Don't get me wrong, the starting pitcher is crucial to any team's chances at winning a game. However, the worst thing you can do is base your handicapping decision solely on his shoulders without doing you research on the bullpen. Teams are now built in a way to get the starting pitcher through at least five innings and to have a handful of flamethrowers ready to come out of the bullpen and shut down the opposition. Doing your research on team's bullpens will help you figure out if a team has a trustworthy back end or not. Don't get me wrong, blown holds or saves happen all the time in baseball, but you always want to have your money on a team that consistently gets the job done -- which ties back into the first paragraph of using the data that's available to you.
Home-field advantage is talked about like it is the be-all and end-all of major sporting events. While the friendly crowd and familiarity with the court/rink/field and venue in general all help, it doesn't necessarily guarantee a win for the home team. The biggest home-field advantage lies within the NFL and professional soccer. Do not, for one second, think because a team is playing at home in the MLB that they are guaranteed to win the game.
I'll have you know that home teams win around 54 percent of regular-season games, with that number jumping up slightly during the postseason. That means 46 percent of the time the home team loses the game. If you are breaking cardinal betting rule No. 1 -- betting without handicapping -- don't break cardinal rule No. 2 - always siding with the home team. Another thing to keep in mind is that if you are talking about home teams in the MLB, the lack of at bat in the bottom of the ninth, if they are winning, could have a legitimate effect on the run line or totals. I urge you, do not always side with the favorite.
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