Betting NHL: Handicapping Primer from Doc's Sports New Expert Handicapper
Hockey is king in Canada. This I know from experience. In the majority of U.S markets, hockey is almost an afterthought compared to the popularity of the NFL, NCAA, NBA and MLB. But after last year's thrilling postseason that ended with a Washington Capitals' Stanley Cup parade, it's time to start giving hockey a chance.
Giving the NHL a chance will not only introduce you to the fastest team sport on earth, but it presents you with many opportunities to boost your bankroll for the many other sports available to wager on. Hockey is one of the easiest sports to beat because you know exactly what you are getting on a nightly basis. There are no constant lineup adjustments like MLB, or matchup discrepancies like an offensive unit vs defensive unit in the NFL.
Instead, you get the best players playing each other on a nightly basis. And to some, that may make the advantages seem minimal. But I believe that's nonsense. You just have to know what advantages you are looking for, and that's where my expertise comes into play. I've been around hockey teams for a very long time. I know what makes them tick and how they work, and I'm going to use that knowledge to show you a great ROI if you sign up with me.
We fell short of our target last season, but we are ready to go full throttle this year with a new system and model in place to help you beat the sportsbook and enjoy the profit the NHL has to offer.
Here are the top four reasons that makes hockey the easiest sport for a sports bettor to beat:
1) The NHL is 82 games long. And if I'm doing the math correctly, that's 2,542 regular-season games per season amongst the 31 NHL teams. That means on the majority of nights, you will have at least two games to choose from. And because TV rights are so valuable, they will likely be matchups featuring good teams. Compare that to just 256 regular-season football games, and you can see why hockey offers a tremendous amount more betting opportunity. It's not on the MLB's level in terms of games played and wagering opportunities, but let's be real for a second - people only bet on baseball because there is nothing going on during the summer months.
2) Hockey has quickly become an analytical dream for some people. Long gone are the days of monitoring just plus-minus (you get a plus if you're on the ice for a goal for and a minus if you're on the ice for a goal against) as the sole factor of if a player is good or not. Advanced metrics like Corsi-For and Corsi-Against and shooting percentage and true shooting percentage all help bettors find the best system that fits their model. If you are backing a team that has an overall terrible Corsi-For (this is the amount of shot attempts taken by a specific team), then they are very likely going to be chasing the game (not have the puck or generate enough chances) and will have a higher chance of losing outright. These advanced stats give you a better indication of how a team's win came to be, and you can use that going forward to find the next possible play-on or fade spot.
3) The NHL market is one of the slowest moving market in the industry. Because it's not among the most popular sports to wager on, bettors rarely jump at the opportunity to bet a soft line - which there are plenty of if you know where to look. Early in the season, I've found the "over" to be a good betting opportunity as systems are still getting worked out and guys are not quite settled into their roles on the team. Goalies are also creatures of habit, so expecting them to stand on their heads right out of the gate is silly if you really understand the intricacies of a hockey team.
4) The scheduling aspect of the NHL cannot be overlooked as it plays a crucial part in coaches' decision making and thought process. Teams are often asked to play back-to-back nights, and most of those games are home-and-away or vice versa. It's not all that uncommon for teams to play three games in four nights or five in eight days. Picking your spots ahead of time on the NHL schedule can set you up best for maximizing profits. In the NHL, fatigue and travel play a huge role in a team's performance and can be exploited if you know where to look for. I do.
I hope you join Doc's Sports this year for NHL all season long as we have a personal goal to reach +10,000 in profits this year alone.
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