Five to Follow MLB Betting: Tuesday September 9, 2014 Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 9/8/2014
Just in case your team already has been eliminated from the playoffs, the 2015 baseball schedule already has been released. This is why MLB just doesn't get it. It should make the schedule a big release after the season like the NFL and NBA do. The 2015 baseball season will begin a week later than this year, on Sunday, April 5. The regular season is set to conclude Sunday, Oct. 4. Thus, if you do the math, we probably are looking at a few November World Series games. Here is a look at five interesting matchups on Tuesday.
Astros at Mariners (-143, 7)
The Houston Astros have lost at least 106 games the past three seasons. However, you have to call this year a moderate success as the team is assured of not losing triple-digits games again as Houston won game No. 63 on Sunday. Taking the mound Tuesday for the Astros is Collin McHugh. He looks like a keeper with a 2.89 ERA (but 8-9 record). McHugh is 4-0 with a 1.79 ERA in his past seven starts. McHugh hasn't been great against Seattle this year, however, going 1-2 with a 5.40 ERA in three starts. Michael Saunders, who was set to return from the DL on Monday, is 3-for-7 with a homer and three RBIs off him. Lefty Roenis Elias (10-12, 3.90) starts for Seattle. He allowed a run over 5.1 innings in his only start vs. Houston on May 22.
Key trends: Houston is 0-4 in McHugh's past four road starts vs. teams with a winning record. Seattle has won six straight on Tuesday. The "over/under" has gone under in Houston's past eight on the road (entering Monday).
Early lean: Take Seattle at +150 on the runline as the M's seem to have figured McHugh out.
Rockies at Mets (-175, 7.5)
Here's something that probably hasn't been said too often this year: the Mets opened as the biggest favorites on the board. That's because they start Rookie of the Year candidate Jacob deGrom (7-6, 2.79). He hasn't allowed an earned run in his past two starts. DeGrom has never faced Colorado. He has a stellar 1.68 ERA at home. Fellow rookie Christian Bergman (2-2, 5.23) starts for the Rockies. He has pitched well in his past two starts as well, allowing a combined three earned over 11.1 innings. Bergman hasn't faced the Mets.
Key trends: Colorado has lost seven straight on Tuesday. The Mets are 4-0 in deGrom's past four at home.
Early lean: Mets are good value at +130 on the runline.
Angels at Rangers (+148, 9.5)
This has the highest total on the board, which is moderately surprising considering how solid Angels starter Hector Santiago has been of late. Santiago (4-7, 3.46) hasn't personally lost a game since June 15. This will be his fifth appearance (fourth start) against Texas, and the lefty is 1-1 with a 4.42 ERA. Adrian Beltre hits him well, going 4-for-12 with two solo homers. Alex Rios has two homers and four RBIs off him in 11 at-bats. Colby Lewis (9-12, 5.42) goes for Texas. OK, now I understand the total. Lewis is 1-4 with a 5.18 ERA in his past five outings. The Angels have hammered him as Lewis is 1-2 with an 11.57 ERA in three starts against them. Josh Hamilton is 4-for-6 with three doubles and two RBIs off him. Albert Pujols is 5-foir-9 with a homer and three RBIs.
Key trends: L.A. is 3-7 in Santiago's past 10 on the road. Texas is 1-7 in Lewis' past eight at home. The under is 11-2 in Texas' past 13 against lefties.
Early lean: Texas just doesn't have much left to score a lot. Go under at -110.
A's at White Sox (+160, 8)
Oakland is by far the biggest road favorite on Tuesday's schedule. The A's start left-hander Jon Lester at U.S. Cellular Field. Lester (13-10, 2.54) hasn't won in his past four starts but has pitched well over that span. In fact, he hasn't allowed more than three earned runs in a start since June 7 while still with Boston. Lester is 1-0 with a 1.20 ERA in two starts against the Pale Hose. Paul Konerko is 10-for-31 with three homers and seven RBIs career off Lester. Left-hander John Danks (9-10, 5.12) goes for the Sox. They have lost his past six starts. He was shelled for seven runs and 11 hits over 4.2 innings last time out against Minnesota. He pitched in Oakland on May 12, allowing three runs and six hits in six innings. Alberto Callaspo is 5-for-9 with three RBIs off him.
Key trends: Oakland is 0-7 in its past seven against lefties. Chicago has lost four in a row against lefties. The under is 4-0 in Danks' past four against teams with a winning record.
Early lean: Call it a hunch (and that A's lefty trend). Sox are good underdog value at home.
Pirates at Phillies (+127, 8)
Bad news for the Pirates as first basemen Pedro Alvarez suffered a setback in his recovery from a sprained left foot. He hasn't started a game since Aug. 26, and the setback occurred on Friday when he pinch-hit against the Cubs. That won't help Pittsburgh's wild-card chances. The Pirates start Edinson Volquez in Tuesday's game. Volquez (11-7, 3.31) has been brilliant of late, not allowing more than two earned in his past six outings. He beat the Phillies on July 5, allowing one run over seven innings with just four hits. Jimmy Rollins can't hit the guy as Rollins is 1-for-14 against Volquez. The Phillies' David Buchanan (6-7, 3.95) hasn't won in his past five outings despite not allowing more than three earned in any of them. He lost in Pittsburgh opposite Volquez on July 5, giving up three runs over six innings.
Key trends: Pittsburgh is 7-0 in Volquez's past seven against teams with a losing record. The over is 7-1 in his past eight on the road. The over has hit in five of Buchanan's past six at home.
Early lean: Under at -120.
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