Sunday, April 10, 2016
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Probable Pitchers: Steven Wright vs. Marco Estrada
The Boston Red Sox visit Rogers Centre on Sunday to play the Toronto Blue Jays. The probable starters are Steven Wright for the Red Sox and Marco Estrada for the Blue Jays. The opening line for this matchup has Boston at +128 and Toronto at -138. The over/under was set at 9.5. The Red Sox had a 83-73-6 over/under record last season and a 79-83-0 run line mark, meaning they covered 49% of the time. The Blue Jays were 95-78-0 against the run line and had a 84-77-12 over/under record. They covered the spread 55% of the time.
The Red Sox head into this matchup coming off a 78 - 84 season, including 35-46 on the road. Starting pitcher Steven Wright had a 5 - 4 record with an earned run average of 4.09 and a WHIP of 1.29. He had 52 strikeouts over his 72.2 innings pitched and he also gave up 67 hits over that time period. He allowed 8.3 hits per 9 innings and he had a FIP of 5.01. The bullpen had an earned run average of 4.24 and they gave up 511 base hits on the year. Teams hit .261 against the bullpen while being struck out 433 times and walking 190 times last season. As a team, Boston allowed 9.23 hits per nine innings while striking out 7.57 batters per nine. They were 25th in the league in team earned run average at 4.34. The Red Sox pitchers collectively gave up 1,486 base hits and 694 earned runs last year. They allowed 178 home runs last season and they allowed 1.1 homers per nine innings as a staff. Boston as a pitching staff walked 478 batters and struck out 1,218. They walked 3 men per 9 innings while striking out 7.6 per 9. They had a team WHIP of 1.36 and their FIP as a unit was 4.17.
As a team, Boston batted .265, good for 6th in the league while putting together a .241 average away from home. The Red Sox held a .415 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .325 which was good for 4th in baseball. They ranked 2nd in baseball with 9.23 hits per game. David Ortiz hit .273 last season and his on-base percentage was at .360. He had 144 hits last season along with 73 runs scored and 108 runs batted in. He struck out 95 times and walked 77 times. Xander Bogaerts hit .320 and he had an on-base percentage of .355 last year. He totaled 196 hits while scoring 84 runs and he drove in 81. He walked 32 times and struck out 101 times. The Red Sox had 1,495 hits, including 294 doubles, 33 triples, and 161 home runs. They stole 71 bases while they were thrown out stealing 27 times. Boston walked 478 times last season and they struck out 1,148 times as a unit. They left 1,142 men on base and had a team OPS of .740. They scored 4.62 runs per contest and scored a total of 748 runs last season.
Toronto comes into this matchup after having a 53-28 home record and a 93 - 69 overall mark last year. With an earned run average last season of 3.13, Marco Estrada will come into this game after holding a 13 - 8 record and a 1.04 WHIP. He had 131 strikeouts over the 181 innings he pitched during which he gave up 134 hits. He allowed 6.7 hits per nine innings and his FIP stood at 4.4. The bullpen had an earned run average of 3.50 and they gave up 412 base hits last year. Teams hit .229 against the Blue Jays bullpen while being struck out 459 times and walking 130 times last season. As a team, Toronto allowed 8.47 hits per nine innings while striking out 6.95 batters per nine. They were 12th in the league in team earned run average at 3.88. The Blue Jays pitchers as a team surrendered 1,353 base knocks and 609 earned runs last season. They gave up 173 home runs last year and they gave up 1.1 home runs per nine innings as a staff. Toronto as a staff walked 397 hitters and struck out 1,117. They gave up a walk 2.5 times per 9 innings while they struck out 7 per 9. Their team WHIP was 1.21 while their FIP as a staff was 4.09.
As a team, they hit .266, good for 4th in the league while putting together a .273 average at home. The Blue Jays held a .453 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .338 which was good for 1st in baseball. They ranked 7th in baseball with 9.06 hits per contest. Josh Donaldson batted .297 last season and he had an OBP of .371. He had 184 hits last year along with 122 runs scored and 123 RBI. He struck out 133 times and walked on 73 occasions. Jose Bautista hit .250 and he had an OBP of .377. He collected 136 hits last year while he scored 108 runs and drove in 114. He earned a walk 110 times and punched out 106 times. The Blue Jays as a unit had 1,480 base hits last year, including 308 doubles, 17 triples, and 232 homers. They had 88 stolen bases while they were thrown out 23 times. Toronto as a team walked 570 times last year and they struck out 1,151 times. They had 1,057 men left on base and had an OPS of .797. They scored 5.5 runs per game and totaled 891 runs last season.
Boston Red Sox Betting Trends
The Boston Red Sox were 83-73-6 against the over/under last season
The Boston Red Sox were 79-83-0 against the run line last season
Toronto Blue Jays Betting Trends
The Toronto Blue Jays were 84-77-12 against the over/under last season
The Toronto Blue Jays were 95-78-0 against the run line last season
Injuries to Watch
Boston Red Sox
04/09/16 DH David Ortiz Rest is not expected to be in the starting lineup Saturday vs. Toronto Blue Jays
04/04/16 P Brandon Workman Elbow Injury is on the 15 day disabled list (3/25)
04/04/16 P Carson Smith Elbow Injury is on the 15 day disabled list (3/25)
04/04/16 P Eduardo Rodrigue Knee Injury is on the 15 day disabled list (4/2)
04/03/16 C Christian Vazquez Elbow Injury is on the 15 day disabled list (3/25)
Toronto Blue Jays
04/04/16 P Aaron Loup Elbow Injury is on the 15 day disabled list (3/25)
04/04/16 2B Devon Travis Shoulder Injury is on the 15 day disabled list (3/25)
04/04/16 P Bo Schultz Hip Injury is on the 15 day disabled list (3/25)
03/31/16 P Marco Estrada Back Injury is on the 15 day disabled list (3/25), expected to start Sunday vs Boston Red Sox
Josh's Pick: Take the Red Sox
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