Thursday, April 7, 2016
Great American Ball Park
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Probable Pitchers: Charlie Morton vs. Robert Stephenson
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The Philadelphia Phillies visit Great American Ball Park on Thursday to play the Cincinnati Reds. The probable starters are Charlie Morton for the Phillies and Robert Stephenson for the Reds. The opening line for this matchup has Philadelphia at +125 and Cincinnati at -135. The over/under was set at 8.5. The Phillies had a 86-64-12 over/under record last season and a 85-77-0 run line mark, meaning they covered 53% of the time. The Reds were 79-82-0 against the run line and had a 83-73-6 over/under record. They covered the spread 49% of the time.
The Phillies head into this matchup coming off a 63 - 99 season, including 26-55 on the road. Starting pitcher Charlie Morton had a 9 - 9 record with an earned run average of 4.81 and a WHIP of 1.38. He had 96 strikeouts over his 129 innings pitched and he also gave up 137 hits over that time period. He allowed 9.6 hits per 9 innings and he had a FIP of 4.19. The bullpen had an earned run average of 3.81 and they gave up 555 base hits on the year. Teams hit .258 against the bullpen while being struck out 518 times and walking 227 times last season. As a team, Philadelphia allowed 9.98 hits per nine innings while striking out 7.22 batters per nine. They were 29th in the league in team earned run average at 4.69. The Phillies pitchers collectively gave up 1,592 base hits and 749 earned runs last year. They allowed 191 home runs last season and they allowed 1.2 homers per nine innings as a staff. Philadelphia as a pitching staff walked 488 batters and struck out 1,153. They walked 3.1 men per 9 innings while striking out 7.2 per 9. They had a team WHIP of 1.45 and their FIP as a unit was 4.40.
As a team, Philadelphia batted .249, good for 24th in the league while putting together a .249 average away from home. The Phillies held a .382 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .303 which was good for 29th in baseball. They ranked 20th in baseball with 8.48 hits per game. Ryan Howard hit .229 last season and his on-base percentage was at .277. He had 107 hits last season along with 53 runs scored and 77 runs batted in. He struck out 138 times and walked 27 times. Maikel Franco hit .280 and he had an on-base percentage of .343 last year. He totaled 85 hits while scoring 45 runs and he drove in 50. He walked 26 times and struck out 52 times. The Phillies had 1,374 hits, including 272 doubles, 37 triples, and 130 home runs. They stole 88 bases while they were thrown out stealing 32 times. Philadelphia walked 387 times last season and they struck out 1,274 times as a unit. They left 1,066 men on base and had a team OPS of .684. They scored 3.86 runs per contest and scored a total of 626 runs last season.
Cincinnati comes into this matchup after having a 34-47 home record and a 64 - 98 overall mark last year. Robert Stephenson will be making his major league debut for the Phillies. The bullpen had an earned run average of 3.96 and they gave up 512 base hits last year. Teams hit .241 against the Reds bullpen while being struck out 502 times and walking 230 times last season. As a team, Cincinnati allowed 8.89 hits per nine innings while striking out 7.75 batters per nine. They were 26th in the league in team earned run average at 4.35. The Reds pitchers as a team surrendered 1,436 base knocks and 700 earned runs last season. They gave up 177 home runs last year and they gave up 1.1 home runs per nine innings as a staff. Cincinnati as a staff walked 544 hitters and struck out 1,252. They gave up a walk 3.4 times per 9 innings while they struck out 7.8 per 9. Their team WHIP was 1.36 while their FIP as a staff was 4.24.
As a team, they hit .248, good for 25th in the league while putting together a .255 average at home. The Reds held a .394 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .312 which was good for 19th in baseball. They ranked 15th in baseball with 8.53 hits per contest. Joey Votto batted .314 last season and he had an OBP of .459. He had 171 hits last year along with 95 runs scored and 80 RBI. He struck out 135 times and walked on 143 occasions. Jay Bruce hit .226 and he had an OBP of .294. He collected 131 hits last year while he scored 72 runs and drove in 87. He earned a walk 58 times and punched out 145 times. The Reds as a unit had 1,382 base hits last year, including 257 doubles, 27 triples, and 167 homers. They had 134 stolen bases while they were thrown out 38 times. Cincinnati as a team walked 496 times last year and they struck out 1,255 times. They had 1,148 men left on base and had an OPS of .706. They scored 3.95 runs per game and totaled 640 runs last season.
Philadelphia Phillies Betting Trends
The Philadelphia Phillies were 86-64-12 against the over/under last season
The Philadelphia Phillies were 85-77-0 against the run line last season
Cincinnati Reds Betting Trends
The Cincinnati Reds were 83-73-6 against the over/under last season
The Cincinnati Reds were 79-82-0 against the run line last season
Injuries to Watch
04/04/16 P Michael Mariot Ankle Injury is on the 15 day disabled list (3/25)
04/03/16 P Mario Hollands Elbow Injury is on the 60 day disabled list (4/2)
03/31/16 LF Aaron Altherr Wrist Injury is on the 60 day disabled list (4/2)
03/31/16 LF Cody Asche Ribs Injury is on the 15 day disabled list (3/25)
03/31/16 P Matt Harrison Back Injury is on the 60 day disabled list (4/2)
04/04/16 P Anthony DeSclafa Oblique Injury is on the 15 day disabled list (3/25)
04/04/16 P Homer Bailey Elbow Injury is on the 15 day disabled list (3/25)
04/04/16 C Kyle Skipworth Ankle Injury is on the 15 day disabled list (3/31)
04/03/16 P John Lamb Back Injury is on the 15 day disabled list (3/25)
04/01/16 P Jon Moscot Back Injury is on the 15 day disabled list (3/25)
03/31/16 P Michael Lorenzen Elbow Injury is on the 15 day disabled list (3/25)
Guy's Pick: Take the Phillies
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