Thursday, March 23, 2017

Spectrum Field

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Probable Pitchers: Ryan Vogelsong vs. Aaron Nola

The Minnesota Twins visit Spectrum Field on Thursday, March 23, 2017 to play the Philadelphia Phillies in a Spring Training matchup. The probable starters are Ryan Vogelsong for the Twins and Aaron Nola for the Phillies.

The opening line for this matchup has Minnesota at +110 and Philadelphia at -130. The Twins had a 95-59-8 over/under record and a 83-79-0 run line mark last season, meaning they covered 51% of the time. The Phillies were 83-79-0 against the run line and had a 78-76-8 over/under record. They covered the spread 51% of the time.

Valuable Minnesota Twins Betting Trends

The Minnesota Twins were 95-59-8 against the over/under last season

The Minnesota Twins were 83-79-0 against the run line last season

Important Philadelphia Phillies Betting Trends

The Philadelphia Phillies were 78-76-8 against the over/under last season

The Philadelphia Phillies were 83-79-0 against the run line last season

Key Minnesota Twins Injuries

03/11/17 P Trevor May Arm out indefinitely

Key Philadelphia Phillies Injuries

No key injuries to report

Useful Pitching Statistics

The Twins are coming off a 59-103 record in 2016, including 29-52 on the road. Starting pitcher Ryan Vogelsong had a 3-7 record with an earned run average of 4.81 and a WHIP of 1.47. He had 61 strikeouts over his 82.1 innings pitched and he gave up 81 hits last season. He allowed 8.9 hits per 9 innings and he had a FIP of 5.01. The bullpen last year had an earned run average of 4.63 and they gave up 613 base hits on the year. Teams hit .271 against the bullpen while being struck out 536 times and walking 198 times last season. As a team, Minnesota allowed 10.09 hits per nine innings while striking out 7.43 batters per nine innings. They were 29th in the league in team earned run average at 5.08. The Twins pitchers collectively gave up 1,617 base hits and 814 earned runs. They allowed 221 home runs last season and they allowed 1.4 homers per nine innings as a staff. Minnesota as a pitching staff walked 479 batters and struck out 1,191. They walked 3 men per 9 innings while striking out 7.4 per 9. They had a team WHIP of 1.45 and their FIP as a unit was 4.57.

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Hitting Statistics

As a team Minnesota batted .251, good for 21st in the league while putting together a .251 average away from home. The Twins held a .421 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .316 which was good for 22nd in baseball. They ranked 17th in baseball with 8.7 hits per game. Joe Mauer is coming off a 2016 season in which he hit .261 with an on-base percentage of .363. He had 129 hits last season along with 68 runs scored and 49 runs batted in. He struck out 93 times and walked 79 times. Brian Dozier hit .268 last year and he had an on-base percentage of .340. He totaled 165 hits while scoring 104 runs and he drove in 99. He walked 61 times and struck out on 138 occasions. The Twins had 1,409 hits, including 288 doubles and 200 home runs. They stole 91 bases and were thrown out stealing 32 times. Minnesota walked 513 times last season and they struck out 1,426 times as a unit. They left 1,124 men on base and had a team OPS of .738. They scored 4.46 runs per contest and scored a total of 722 runs last year.

Useful Pitching Statistics

Philadelphia had a 37-44 home record and a 71-91 overall mark in 2016. With an earned run average of 4.78, Aaron Nola had a 6-9 record and a 1.31 WHIP last season. He had 121 strikeouts over the 111 innings he pitched during which he gave up 116 hits. He allowed 9.4 hits per nine innings and his FIP stood at 3.08. Last season the bullpen had an earned run average of 5.05 and they gave up 556 base hits on the year. Teams hit .266 against the Phillies bullpen while being struck out 513 times and walking 218 times last season. As a team, Philadelphia allowed 9.19 hits per nine innings while striking out 8.14 batters per nine innings. They were 26th in the league in team earned run average at 4.63. The Phillies pitchers as a team surrendered 1,468 base knocks and 739 earned runs last season. They gave up 213 home runs last year and they gave up 1.3 home runs per nine innings as a staff. Philadelphia as a staff walked 466 hitters and struck out 1,299. They gave up a walk 2.9 times per 9 innings while they struck out 8.1 per 9. Their team WHIP was 1.35 while their FIP as a staff was 4.35.

Hitting Statistics

As a team, they batted .240, good for 29th in the league while putting together a .231 average at home. The Phillies held a .385 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .301 which was good for 29th in baseball. They ranked 28th in baseball with 8.06 hits per contest. Odubel Herrera comes into this matchup after batting .286 with an OBP of .361. He had 167 hits last year along with 87 runs scored and 49 RBI. He struck out 134 times and walked on 63 occasions. Cesar Hernandez hit .294 in 2016 and he had an OBP of .371. He collected 161 hits while scoring 67 runs and driving in 39. He earned a walk 66 times and punched out 116 times. The Phillies as a unit had 1,306 base hits, including 231 doubles and 161 homers. They had 96 stolen bases and were thrown out 45 times. Philadelphia as a team walked 424 times last year and they struck out 1,376 times. They had 1,043 men left on base and had an OPS of .685. They scored 3.77 runs per game and totaled 610 runs last season.

Who will win tonight's Twins/Phillies MLB game against the spread?

Tony's Pick: Take the Twins +110

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