Daily Expert MLB Picks: Wednesday, Aug. 29, 2018, Opening Line Report

Have we seen the last of Troy Tulowitzki as a big-league player? In absolutely no surprise, the Toronto Blue Jays recently announced that Tulo wouldn't play at all this year. The 33-year-old shortstop hasn't played in the majors July 28, 2017, when he suffered ligament damage that required surgery from stepping on another player's foot while running the bases. He had another surgery this April to remove bone spurs in both heels. The team thought he would only miss about half the year, but Tulo could never get right. In his healthy prime, Tulowitzki was an absolute offensive monster for the position he played - an annual Top-10 fantasy baseball pick and with Hall of Fame potential. Starting in 2012, he just couldn't put together back-to-back healthy seasons. Tulowitzki isn't going to simply quit because he has two years and $34 million left on his absurd contract. However, he and the Jays could work out a nice buyout and I'm sure the team has that deal insured to where it would recoup most of the money if Tulo does walk away for medical reasons.

Mets at Cubs ( -175, TBA )

MLB Network game at 2:20 p.m. ET. The Cubs are so desperate at the back end of their rotation right now that they will turn to Alec Mills for this one. Who, you ask? The 26-year-old has pitched a total of 11 innings in his big-league career, three relief appearances in 2016 with the Royals and two appearances this year with the Cubs. He was pretty good in his first career start last Friday vs. the Reds, allowing one run over 5.2 innings with eight strikeouts. Mets lefty Jason Vargas (4-8, 6.96) was one of the worst pitchers in baseball … but over his past three starts has an ERA of 2.08 to get his season number under 7.00 for the first time all season. Yes, all season. Vargas hasn't faced the Cubs in 2018 and only two have seen him. Ben Zobrist is a .414 hitter off him with a homer in 29 at-bats. Anthony Rizzo 0-for-6.

Key trends: The Mets are 2-8 in Vargas' past 10 on the road. The "over/under" is 4-1 in the Mets' past five vs. a right-hander.

Early lean: Cubs on runline (and surely over).

White Sox at Yankees (-252, 10)

MLB Network prime-time matchup. Yankees lefty CC Sabathia (7-4, 3.30) returned from a short DL stint on Friday and allowed two runs and five hits over six in a no-decision in Baltimore. He also took a ND at the White Sox on Aug. 8 (5.2 IP, 1 ER, season-high 12 Ks). Tim Anderson is 2-for-6 with a homer against him. The White Sox's Reynaldo Lopez (4-9, 4.66) was 4-5 with a 3.68 ERA on the season when he won in Texas on July 1. Obviously, he hasn't won since. He deserved to on Aug. 7 vs. the Yankees, surrendering one run and four hits over seven. That was his 13^th quality start of 2018 and last. Miguel Andujar has a homer in two at-bats against him.

Key trends: The Sox are 1-5 in Lopez's past six vs. teams with a winning record. The Yanks are 7-3 in Sabathia's past 10 vs. Chicago. The under is 15-5-1 in his previous 21 vs. teams with a losing record.

Early lean: White Sox on runline and under.

Nationals at Phillies (-121, 9)

The Phillies made a waiver claim for the Mets' Jose Bautista, and the two teams did agree to a deal - not really sure what the 37-year-old offers at this point other than a big bat off the bench. The Phillies go with Jake Arrieta (9-9, 3.37). He has lost three straight starts, although one of them was good. He hasn't taken a decision in two starts this year vs. Washington with a 2.45 ERA. Bryce Harper is 4-for-18 off him with no homers. This could be the last start in a Nationals uniform for lefty Gio Gonzalez (7-11, 4.35) as he has cleared waivers and probably is traded somewhere to salary relief. Gonzalez boosted his value Friday at the Mets in allowing one run over seven - albeit in his third straight loss. In 15 starts since the beginning of June, Gonzalez's record is 1-9. He's 1-0 with a 2.70 ERA in two 2018 starts vs. the Phillies.

Key trends: The Nats are 2-6 in Gonzalez's past eight in Philly. They under is 7-2 in his past nine vs. the Phillies overall.

Early lean: Phillies and under.

Brewers at Reds (+135, 9)

This should be interesting for Matt Harvey as he had a chance to join a playoff chase with the Brewers as they claimed him off waivers last week. Alas, the Reds and Milwaukee couldn't agree on a trade so Cincinnati pulled him back and now Harvey can't be traded. Have to say I don't understand that from the Reds' point of view. Harvey (6-7, 4.77) is 1-1 with a 3.38 ERA in two starts this season vs. the Brewers. Christian Yelich is 5-for-21 off him with five strikeouts. Milwaukee rookie Freddy Peralta (6-4, 4.02) looks like a future ace. Batters are hitting just .167 off him with a scant 40 hits in 69.1 innings. Peralta beat the Reds last week, shutting them out on three hits over seven.

Key trends: The Brewers are 1-4 in Peralta's past five on the road. The Reds are 5-1 in Harvey's past six at home. The under is 4-1 in Harvey's past five.

Early lean: Reds and under.

Diamondbacks at Giants (+106, 7.5)

MLB Network late-night game. Arizona's Zack Godley (13-7, 4.59) has set a career high in victories and is close to a high in innings, which means he might be fading. Godley has been roughed up for 11 runs and 15 hits over 10 innings his past two. He's 1-2 with an ugly 8.79 ERA this year in three starts vs. the Giants. Brandon Crawford is 4-for-7 with a homer against him. Nick Hundley 3-for-5 with a homer. San Francisco's Dereck Rodriguez (6-1, 2.30) deserves some NL ROY votes. He comes off a no-decision vs. Texas (6 IP, 2 ER) in a sixth straight quality outing. His lone start vs. the Diamondbacks was June 30 in Arizona when Rodriguez threw 6.1 shutout innings.

Key trends: The Diamondbacks are 1-5 in Godley's past six on Wednesday. The under is 7-2 in Rodriguez's past nine.

Early lean: Giants and under.

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