Free MLB Picks for Friday, May 10, 2019
Good for former AL Cy Young winner Dallas Keuchel standing up for "principle" by recently saying that he still hasn't signed with a team yet - despite multiple offers - because he's not about to settle for what he believes is less than he's worth. "This is not me being greedy … This is not a me thing," Keuchel said. "This is for the greater good of baseball. This is for principle." Does the lefty know how ridiculous that is to the every-day person? Sure, it's easy to stand on principle when you have made millions of dollars, but to act like he's the Jackie Robinson or something of free agency to fix the system is laughable. He probably will remain unsigned for nearly another month. That's because at midnight Eastern Time on June 2, signing Keuchel will no longer include the penalty of a lost draft pick. No reason for any team to jump ahead of that deadline at this point.
Brewers at Cubs (-128, TBA)
MLB Network and ESPN+ game at 2:20 p.m. ET. First game at Wrigley between the two since Milwaukee won the NL Central tiebreaker game No. 163 there last October. Brewers lefty Gio Gonzalez (0-0, 2.61) has been a solid pickup in his two starts since he opted to leave the Yankees when they wouldn't call him up. Gio has only faced the Mets thus far and missed the Cubs last year. Javier Baez is 0-for-6 off him with five strikeouts. Chicago southpaw Jose Quintana (4-1, 3.40) is one out shy of five straight quality starts. However, he was bombed in Milwaukee on April 5 (3 IP, 8 ER, 3 HRs). Ryan Braun is 8-for-33 off him with three homers and eight RBIs.
Key trends: The Cubs are 6-4 in Quintana's past 10 vs. the Brewers. The "over/under" has gone under in seven of the 10.
Early lean: Cubs.
Yankees at Rays (-135, 7.5)
If the Rays' Tyler Glasnow (6-0, 1.47) isn't your AL Cy Young right now, I'm not sure who is. The former top Pirates pitching prospect has really put it all together - usually, guys get worse coming from the National League to the AL. Glasnow comes off seven shutout innings in Baltimore, allowing just three hits and no walks with eight strikeouts. He has made one career start vs. the Yankees, giving up one earned over 4.2 innings. New York's Domingo German (6-1, 2.35) is having a breakout season himself and has had a quality outing in three of his past four. He has a 7.36 ERA in 11 career innings vs. Tampa Bay.
Key trends: The Rays have split Glasnow's past 10 at home. The over has hit in just three of those.
Early lean: Rays and under.
Marlins at Mets (-163, 7)
New York expects to activate Jed Lowrie, and he should make his Mets debut. Lowrie, who signed a two-year, $20 million free-agent deal this offseason, has yet to play a regular-season game after missing all of spring rehabbing from a sprained capsule in his left knee. He should take over as the every-day third baseman, sending Todd Frazier to the bench. Lowrie had a sneaky-good season in 2018 with Oakland, batting .267 with 23 homers and 99 RBIs. It's Zack Wheeler (2-2, 4.64) for the Mets. He comes off a no-decision in Milwaukee, allowing two runs with 10 strikeouts over seven. Miami's Pablo Lopez (2-4, 4.03) took a hard-luck ND in his last start, throwing six shutout innings vs. Atlanta. Third time through the order, his ERA is 8.10 compared with a 0.50 ERA first time.
Key trends: The Mets are 6-4 in Wheeler's past 10 vs. the Marlins. The over has hit in five of the previous seven.
Early lean: Mets and over.
Mariners at Red Sox (-173, 9.5)
MLB Network prime-time game. Back when the Mariners were the surprise team of the American League (they are free-falling now), they took three of four at home from the Red Sox March 28-31, scoring at least six runs in every game. It's rookie Erik Swanson (1-3, 4.94) here. He earned his first big-league win Sunday in Cleveland with six shutout innings, allowing just one hit. Swanson landed in the rotation when Wade LeBlanc went out injured but certainly would stay there if Swanson keeps throwing like that. Boston lefty Eduardo Rodriguez (3-2, 5.40) won at the White Sox on Saturday, allowing one run over six. He lost in Seattle on March 30 (4.1 IP, 6 R). Dee Gordon is 6-for-10 with a homer off him.
Key trends: The Red Sox have won eight of Rodriguez's past 10 at home. The under has hit in seven.
Early lean: Mariners on runline and over.
Phillies at Royals (+131, 9.5)
Philadelphia adds the designated hitter for the only interleague series of the weekend. Team will probably rotate guys there over the weekend just to get a break from the field. The Phils start Jake Arrieta (4-2, 3.40). He took his first no-decision of the year on Saturday, allowing two earned over six against Washington. Arrieta had a 2.25 ERA in his first four starts, but he has posted a 5.29 ERA in his last three. Kansas City's Billy Hamilton is just 3-for-18 career off him. The Royals' Homer Bailey (3-3, 5.25) ended a two-game losing streak Saturday in Detroit with a rare quality start, allowing two runs over six. Andrew McCutchen has seen him by far the most of any Phillies hitter and hits .314 in 51 at-bats but hasn't homered.
Key trends: The Phils are 4-6 in Arrieta's past 10 on the road, and the O/U is 3-7 in them.
Early lean: Phillies and over.
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