Free MLB Picks for Tuesday, June 11, 2019
Come on, Mickey Callaway! I realize being manager of the Mets is your profession, but baseball is entertainment for the fans. And you blew it this week in the first two games of the Subway Series between the Mets and Yankees from the Bronx. Per usual, the Yankees are pennant/World Series contenders and the Mets are also-rans. So, one might think that Callaway might throw the poor Mets fans a bone this week by lining up his two best pitchers, Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard (who were both linked in possible trades to the Bombers this past offseason), to pitch at Yankee Stadium. Except, Callaway is a former pitching coach so he thinks it's too important to keep his guys on regular rest. That's weak. So instead, the Mets threw journeyman Jason Vargas on Monday and will Zack Wheeler on Tuesday. The teams play two in Queens from July 2-3.
Mets at Yankees (-162, 9)
ESPN game and the Mets add the designated hitter. They lost Robinson Cano back to the injured list over the weekend. This starts an incredibly tough stretch the rest of the first half for the Mets … and maybe the beginning of the end for embattled manager Callaway if it doesn't go well. The Mets' Wheeler (5-3, 4.61) has become an innings horse, going at least seven for a fourth straight outing Thursday against the Giants, and New York has won them all. Wheeler allowed three runs on three hits in his seven innings. The Yankees' Luke Voit is 2-for-3 off him with a double. Bombers lefty James Paxton (3-2, 3.11) was pushed back a day. He has made two starts since returning from the injured list and yet to go five full innings due to pitch counts. The Mets' Todd Frazier is 0-for-6 off him with five strikeouts.
Key trends: The Mets are 1-6 in their past seven against a lefty. The "over/under" has gone under in five of Wheeler's past seven on the road vs. teams with a winning record.
Early lean: Yankees and under.
Reds at Indians (-120, 8.5)
Cincinnati adds the DH for this interleague game on ESPN+. The struggles of Cleveland's Trevor Bauer (4-6, 3.93) continue as he continues to lose trade value. He lost a fourth straight start last Thursday, allowing five runs (three homers) over eight innings. He's still going pretty deep into games but is being hit hard. Jose Iglesias has seen him more than any Reds batter from his Tigers days, going 8-for-20 with two doubles. Cincinnati ace Luis Castillo (6-1, 2.38) was ace-like last Tuesday in St. Louis, holding the Cardinals to a run on two hits over six. He retired the final 12 batters he faced. Only Carlos Santana (1-for-6, K) has faced him among Indians batters.
Key trends: The Reds are 9-3 in Castillo's past 12 series openers. The under is 10-2 in Bauer's past 12 vs. the NL Central.
Early lean: Reds and under.
Nationals at White Sox (+168, 9.5)
Washington adds the DH in Chicago. The Nats did something even more rare than a perfect game on Sunday, homering in four consecutive at-bats - just the ninth time that has ever happened. That low number somewhat surprises me. Howie Kendrick, Trea Turner, Adam Eaton and Anthony Rendon accomplished the feat. It's lefty Patrick Corbin (5-4, 3.59) on the mound here. He has lost his past two, giving up 13 runs and 16 hits over 7.2 innings. He has one career start vs. the White Sox and won it two years ago. Yonder Alonso is 4-for-10 off him. Chicago lefty Manny Banuelos (3-4, 7.36) hasn't pitched since May 30 as he landed on the injured list with a strained shoulder. Only two Nationals have seen him. Rendon is 0-for-2.
Key trends: The Nats are 4-1 in Corbin's past five on four days of rest. The under is 4-1 in his previous five vs. teams with a losing record.
Early lean: Nats on runline and over.
Pirates at Braves (-155, 9.5)
Does this pitching matchup look familiar? It should. On Thursday, we recommended Chris Archer and the Pirates at home against the Braves and Mike Foltynewicz, and Pittsburgh won 6-1 behind six innings of one-run ball from Archer - a rare quality start for him this year. Archer has improved his control in the past two starts, both Pittsburgh wins after the team had lost his previous six. I thought Atlanta's Josh Donaldson might sit against Archer last week because he has such a terrible history against him, but Donaldson played and went 0-for-4 to fall to 6-for-41 with 18 Ks career against Archer. Foltynewicz (1-5, 5.89) pitched solidly, allowing three runs over six. Josh Bell is 4-for-8 off him with two doubles.
Key trends: The Pirates are 1-7 in Archer's past eight on the road. The over is 4-1-1 in Foltynewicz's past six at home.
Early lean: Braves and over.
Dodgers at Angels (TBA)
MLB Network late-night matchup, and the Dodgers will add the designated hitter. Not often you can say there's a series where Mike Trout isn't the best player in it, but this year he takes a backseat to Cody Bellinger (for now). It's Kenta Maeda (7-2, 3.48) for the Dodgers. L.A. had won four straight of his outings but lost in Arizona last Wednesday. Maeda allowed a run over five in a no-decision. Trout is 1-for-4 off him. The Angels' Felix Pena (3-1, 4.53) has made 12 appearances this season and four starts. He was bombed last time out, allowing seven runs and eight hits over 1.2 innings vs. Oakland - yet avoided the loss. Bellinger is 2-for-4 with two doubles off him. Max Muncy 1-for-5 with a dinger.
Key trends: The Angels are 3-8 in Pena's past 11 vs. teams with a winning record. The under is 10-2-1 in Maeda's past 13 on five days of rest.
Early lean: Not sure why no opening line - the Halos apparently haven't made Pena official yet but all signs point to him. Dodgers will be solid favorites and the pick.
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