Free MLB Picks for Tuesday, June 4, 2019

The 2019 MLB Amateur Draft began on Monday, which also means we should see some movement on two free-agent pitchers, Dallas Keuchel and Craig Kimbrel, this week. That's because any draft pick compensation attached to them (after being given qualifying offers that were in retrospect stupidly rejected) has now fallen by the wayside. Obviously, any team could use a former Cy Young winner like Keuchel or a former NL Rookie of the Year like Kimbrel, but nowadays a shutdown reliever is almost more valuable than a starter. So the market for Kimbrel might take longer to shake out because he will surely have many offers. I think he lands with either the Braves (his first team) or the Cubs. Keuchel? Best guess would be the Twins or Yankees.

Rays at Tigers (+214, 8.5)

Tampa Bay is the biggest road favorite on the board Tuesday. That's because the Rays start ace lefty Blake Snell (3-4, 3.06). He has taken three straight no-decisions despite each being a quality start. Since giving up a career-high seven earned runs against the Royals to open May, Snell has not allowed more than two runs in his past five starts. No Tiger has more than six at-bats against Snell. Detroit lefty Ryan Carpenter (0-2, 7.58) allowed two runs over five in his most recent outing in Baltimore. He has yet to go more than five innings in four starts this year and has never faced Tampa Bay.

Key trends: The Rays are 9-3 in Snell's past 10 vs. teams with a losing record. The "over/under" has gone under in six straight Tuesday starts.

Early lean: Rays on runline and under.

Twins at Indians (-145, 8.5)

MLB Network game. Minnesota will activate designated hitter Nelson Cruz off the injured list for this one. He was hitting .270 with seven homers and 22 RBIs in 35 games before going down in mid-May. The fact the Twins are starting someone named Devin Smeltzer here tells you how much they need Keuchel. The rookie lefty Smeltzer made his big-league debut Friday in place of an injured Michael Pineda and shut out the Brewers over six innings. So maybe the Twins don't need Keuchel! Cleveland's Shane Bieber (4-2, 3.67) was roughed up for six runs and eight hits (three homers) over five innings last time out in Boston. Cruz is 0-for-1 with a strikeout off him.

Key trends: The Indians have won six of Bieber's past seven vs. teams with a winning record. The under is 6-1 in his previous seven.

Early lean: Indians and under.

Reds at Cardinals (+108, 9)

The Cards are going to give rookie lefty Genesis Cabrera - as we mentioned last week, the first-ever player named Genesis in the majors - one more shot. He wasn't great against the Phillies on Saturday, allowing five runs (three earned) over 3.2 innings. He did strike out the side in the second inning and hit 99 mph on the gun a couple of times. The Cards are also in on Keuchel. Cincinnati's Luis Castillo (5-1, 2.45) comes off a no-decision vs. the Pirates, allowing two earned over 5.1 innings. It's his first look at St. Louis this year. Matt Carpenter is 5-for-13 off him with a homer and three walks.

Key trends: The Reds are 8-3 in Castillo's past 11 series openers. The under is 7-1 in his previous eight on the road.

Early lean: Reds and under.

Dodgers at Diamondbacks (+178, 9)

It's NL ERA leader and lefty Hyun-Jin Ryu (8-1, 1.48) on the bump for Los Angeles. He shut out the Mets over 7.2 innings in his last start, Ryu's fourth time in the past five not allowing an earned run. In six May starts, the Korean had a 0.59 ERA. Ryu allowed one run over six innings on March 28 against Arizona. Eduardo Escobar is 3-for-7 with a double against him. The Diamondbacks' Taylor Clarke (1-1, 5.19) makes his fifth big-league appearance and fourth start. It will be his first at home. He allowed five runs in two innings last time out in Colorado. The 26-year-old hasn't faced the Dodgers in a regular-season game.

Key trends: The Dodgers are 9-1 in Ryu's past 10 vs. the NL West. The under is 8-3 in his previous 11 on the road.

Early lean: Dodgers and under.

A's at Angels (-125, 8.5)

The Angels really got hosed by the schedule. They were supposed to be off Monday but instead had to fly from Seattle to Chicago to face the Cubs in a makeup game and then fly back home for the opener of this series. It's rookie Griffin Canning (2-1, 3.06) for the Halos. His first three starts were shaky, but he has allowed one earned run or fewer in each of his past three, including last time out in Oakland. Marcus Semien went yard off him. For the A's, it's Frankie Montas (6-2, 2.81). He took a no-decision last time out against the Angels, allowing four runs over four. Kole Calhoun is 4-for-8 against him with a homer.

Key trends: The A's are 8-3 in Montas' previous 11 vs. teams with a losing record. The under is 4-1 in his previous five series openers.

Early lean: A's and under.

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