Free MLB Picks for Wednesday, April 17, 2019

It sounds as if former AL Cy Young winner Dallas Keuchel might have a home soon. Keuchel reportedly has woken up to the reality that he's not going to get some long-term contract from a team and is now willing to accept a one-year deal. Keuchel probably should fire his agent after turning down Houston's one-year, $17.9 million qualifying deal. At the start of the offseason, Keuchel reportedly wanted a six- or seven-year deal worth more than $25 million a year. Yeah, don't we all. Because he was given a qualifying offer, that means certain teams would have to relinquish a draft pick if signing Keuchel and it has scared off those suitors. The Yankees and Padres have been rumored as possible Keuchel landing spots.

Mets at Phillies (-128, 9)

MLB Network game at 1:05 p.m. ET. New York right-hander Zack Wheeler (1-1, 7.47) wasn't very good in either of his first two starts this season but then made a mechanical adjustment before his last time out and allowed two runs with eight strikeouts over six innings in a win in Atlanta. In his career, Wheeler is 3-0 with a 3.96 ERA in Philly's Citizens Bank Park. Bryce Harper can't hit him, going 5-for-26 with 11 strikeouts. The Phillies' Jake Arrieta (2-1, 2.25) went seven in his last start, allowing one run on five hits in Miami. It was Arrieta's 100^th career win. Last year, he was 0-1 with a 2.45 ERA in three starts vs. the Mets. Wilson Ramos is 4-for-7 off him with two walks.

Key trends: The Mets are 4-1 in Wheeler's past five starts vs. the Phillies. The "over/under" is 6-1 in his previous seven against them.

Early lean: Phillies and over.

Royals at White Sox (-111, 9.5)

This 2:10 p.m. ET first pitch is available on ESPN+. One wonders how much more patience the White Sox may show with 24-year-old former top prospect Lucas Giolito (2-1, 6.19) before sending him down to the minors to figure things out. He was all over the place again last time out, allowing six runs with four walks over five innings at the Yankees. Giolito actually got the win, though. His season debut was a victory in Kansas City (6.2 IP, 2 ER). Alex Gordon is just 3-for-18 off him. The Royals' Brad Keller (2-1, 2.45) struck out a career-high 10 last time out in a win over Cleveland. He also dominated the White Sox on March 28 with seven scoreless innings. Yonder Alonso is 2-for-10 with a homer off him.

Key trends: The White Sox are 6-1 in Giolito's past seven vs. Kansas City. The over has hit in seven straight Giolito home starts.

Early lean: White Sox and over.

Reds at Dodgers (-177, 8)

Hasn't been quite the start the Dodgers expected of young future ace Walker Buehler (1-0, 8.25). He has yet to go more than five innings in three outings and has allowed five earned in two of them. Buehler only pitched in one spring training game because his arm wasn't quite 100 percent, and he thinks that abbreviated spring might be the cause of his issues. Buehler says the arm is fine. No Reds batter has more than three at-bats off him. Joey Votto is 2-for-3. Cincinnati's Sonny Gray (0-2, 2.03) pitched four innings in a 5-0 win over Miami last week but left with a left calf contusion. He expects to make this start. Not many Dodgers have seen Gray as his career had been spent in the American League before this year.

Key trends: The Reds are 1-10 in their past 11 Wednesday games. The over is 8-2 in the Dodgers' past 10 in Game 3 of a series.

Early lean: Dodgers and over.

Red Sox at Yankees (-119, 9.5)

ESPN game with a 6:30 start tie. That long-term extension the Red Sox gave former Yankee Nathan Eovaldi this offseason hasn't looked great yet with the big right-hander having an 8.40 ERA in three outings without a decision. He has yet to pitch more than five innings and has walked as many as he has struck out (10). Eovaldi was 1-1 with a 1.93 ERA in four regular-season starts vs. NYY last year. Aaron Judge is 2-for-7 off him with a double. New York lefty JA Happ (0-2, 8.76) also has been a high-priced bust thus far. He hasn't gone more than 4.1 innings in his three starts. Happ had a 1.99 ERA in four regular-season starts vs. Boston last year, but lost his Game 2 start to them in the ALDS. Steve Pearce should get a spot start as he's 11-for-32 with six homers off Happ.

Key trends: The Red Sox are 9-3 in their past 12 vs. a lefty. The over is 6-0-1 in Eovaldi's past seven in 6-0 in Happ's past six.

Early lean: Yankees and over.

Astros at A's (+109, 9)

MLB Network late-night game. Astros lefty Wade Miley (1-1, 3.45) went a season-low four innings last time out in Seattle, allowing three runs and six hits. It was his 19^th straight start allowing three earned or fewer. Oakland's Kendrys Morales is 10-for-24 career off him but hasn't gone yard. Oakland's Frankie Montas (2-1, 3.18) won in Baltimore in his last start, surrendering three runs over six innings. Montas has allowed only 13 hits in 17 innings but four of those are homers. He lost in Houston on April 5 (5 IP, 2 ER). Carlos Correa is 4-for-6 against him with a homer.

Key trends: The A's are 6-1 in their past seven against a lefty. The under is 4-1 in Montas' past five overall.

Early lean: A's and under.

Read more articles by Alan Matthews