Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction, 4/3/2021 MLB Pick, Tips and Odds

Game: Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies

Date: Saturday, April 3, 2021

Location: Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, PA

TV: NBC Sports Philadelphia

Odds/Point Spread: Atlanta (-105) Philadelphia (-141)

Zack Wheeler and the Philadelphia Phillies (28-32, 3rd in NL East last season) host the Atlanta Braves (35-25, 1st in NL East last year) at Citizens Bank Park on Saturday. The Braves open this game at -105 while the Phillies are coming in at -141. The O/U is set at 9. The expected starting pitchers will be Charlie Morton and Zack Wheeler.

Atlanta was slugging .483 and were called out on strikes 573 times last year, while being walked on 239 occasions. They accrued 338 runs batted in in addition to 556 base knocks in the previous season, while their team batting average sat at .268. The Braves compiled 130 doubles as a team and smacked 103 balls out of the stadium. They notched a total of 348 runs while having a team on-base percentage of .349. As a team, the Atlanta Braves recorded 5.8 runs per outing, which had them sitting at 2nd in baseball.

The Braves held a team ERA of 4.41 last year (15th in baseball), and the staff struck out 506 batters. Their pitching staff walked 220 players from the other team and their FIP finished at 4.42 as a unit in the prior season. They had a strikeout to walk ratio of 2.30 and the pitching staff had a team WHIP of 1.36. Braves pitchers yielded 69 home runs and also 288 total runs (16th in MLB). Braves relief pitchers went to the mound with opponents on base in 65 contests in addition to 59 outings with high leverage. The relief pitchers had a total of 31 holds for the prior year (13th in baseball). The Braves relievers accumulated a save percentage of 68.4% and entered the game in 53 save situations. They tallied 13 saves over the course of the prior season and blew 6 out of their 19 chances to get a save. The bullpen inherited 101 runners over the course of last year and 30.7% of those runners crossed home plate. The Braves sent forth 228 relievers to the mound last season.

Morton held a FIP of 3.45 and he earned an ERA+ of 88. He allowed 20 earned runs last year and had a strikeout to walk ratio of 4.2. He allowed 10.2 H/9 (hits per 9 innings) and his WHIP was at 1.395. His earned run average was 4.74 and he struck out 42 opposing hitters. Charlie Morton conceded 43 base hits in 38 innings he pitched last year. Morton has taken the mound for 1,439 frames and has totaled 1,276 punch outs during his pro baseball career. Morton (93-89 career win-loss record) sits with a FIP of 3.79 while facing 6,200 opposing batters in the majors. His earned run average is 4.08 (653 ER's allowed) and he has a WHIP of 1.334. He has surrendered 1,402 hits (8.8 hits per nine innings) and has had 518 walks.

Philadelphia knocked in 82 home runs during the previous year to go along with 289 RBIs. They recorded 90 doubles, while walking 229 times as well as notching 306 runs. The Philadelphia Phillies accumulated a team OBP of .342 as well as a team batting average of .257 in the prior season. The Phillies had a team slugging % of .439 and they were earning 5.10 runs per outing (6th in baseball). They were rung up on 480 instances (24th in the league) and had a total of 500 base hits.

The Philadelphia pitching staff allowed 311 runs during the previous year while holding an ERA of 5.14 (284 earned runs yielded). They gave up 80 dingers and they allowed 5.63 runs per 9 innings (27th in the league). The Phillies finished with a team WHIP of 1.479 with a FIP of 4.43 as a pitching staff over the course of the prior season. They earned a strikeout to walk ratio of 2.88 (532 strikeouts vs 185 free passes). They ranked 3rd in the league as a pitching staff in total hits allowed with 550. Philadelphia relief pitchers had an inherited score percentage of 31.0% out of their 121 inherited base runners. Their relief pitchers stepped onto the hill in 64 games with high leverage and also 84 contests with runners on. Wrapping up the year with 25 save opportunities, the Phillies tallied 27 holds and also 14 blown saves. They were sitting at 29th in baseball with a save percentage of 44.0%, and they dispatched 189 bullpen pitchers to the hill last year. Philadelphia had relievers step onto the hill in 53 save situations and they earned 11 saves.

Wheeler had a K/BB ratio of 3.3 with 53 total K's and he was the owner of an ERA+ of 153. He took the ball for 71.0 innings last year while conceding 8.5 hits per 9 innings. Wheeler allowed 67 base hits while conceding 23 earned runs (2.92 ERA). His WHIP was at 1.17 and he had a FIP of 3.22 over the course of last year. In his career, Wheeler has allowed 767 hits while totaling 779 punch outs in 820 innings pitched. He has given up a total of 337 earned runs while earning a WHIP of 1.284 and having a FIP of 3.7. He has a strikeout to walk ratio of 2.72 and he has faced 3,471 opposing batters during his MLB career. Wheeler (48-40 career record) has earned a 3.70 earned run average and has given up 8.4 hits per 9 innings.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Atlanta (-105)

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