Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction, 4/5/2021 MLB Pick, Tips and Odds

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds

Date: Monday, April 5, 2021

Location: Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, OH

TV: Bally Sports Ohio

Odds/Point Spread: Pittsburgh (+120) Cincinnati (-182)

JT Brubaker and the Pittsburgh Pirates (1-1, 4th in NL Central) head to Great American Ball Park on Monday where they'll meet the Cincinnati Reds (1-1, 2nd in NL Central). The Reds open this contest at -182 while the Pirates are priced at +120. The over/under has been set at 9. The pitchers expected to start will be JT Brubaker and Jose De Leon.

Pittsburgh had a slugging percentage of .357 last year and struck out 521 times, while drawing a walk on 167 occasions. They accrued 210 runs batted in in addition to 425 hits over the course of last year, while their team batting average came in at .220. The Pirates hit 76 doubles as a unit and knocked 59 balls out of the park. They tallied 219 runs scored while holding a team OBP of .284. As a squad, the Pittsburgh Pirates put up 3.7 runs per outing, which put them at 30th in the league.

Pirates pitchers gave up 80 long balls and also 298 total runs (12th in baseball). Their pitching staff walked 249 opposing players and their FIP was 4.80 as a squad in the prior season. Their strikeout to walk ratio was at 2.15 and the pitching staff finished with a WHIP of 1.36. The Pirates had a team ERA of 4.68 last season (19th in MLB), and the staff struck out 536 batters. The Pirates relief pitchers recorded a save percentage of 31.6% and came into the game in 43 save situations. The relief pitchers inherited 104 base runners last year with 34.6% of them ended up scoring. Pirates relief pitchers went to the mound with runners on base in 64 contests and also 64 outings with high leverage. The Pirates had sent 210 relievers to the hill during the previous year. The relievers had 22 holds in the previous season (24th in the league). They recorded 6 saves in the previous season and did not convert 13 of their 19 save opportunities.

Brubaker was the owner of a FIP of 4.08 and he earned an ERA+ of 92. He allowed 26 earned runs last season and had a K/BB ratio of 2.8. He gave up 9.1 hits per nine innings and his WHIP was 1.373. His ERA was 4.94 and he fanned 48 hitters. JT Brubaker allowed 48 hits in 47.1 innings in which he pitched last season. 

Cincinnati knocked in 90 home runs last season in addition to 237 runs batted in. They had 76 doubles, while taking a walk 239 times as well as putting up 243 runs. The Cincinnati Reds accumulated an on-base percentage of .312 and a batting average of .212 for the previous season. The Reds held a team slugging percentage of .403 and they averaged 4.05 runs per game (28th in baseball). They were called out on strikes on 534 occasions (12th in baseball) and had a total of 390 hits.

The Reds had a team WHIP of 1.218 with a FIP of 3.92 as a squad last year. They finished at 29th in the league as a pitching staff in total hits surrendered with 401. The Cincinnati pitching staff yielded 243 runs last year while having an ERA of 3.84 (215 earned runs relinquished). They earned a K/BB ratio of 2.89 (615 strikeouts vs 213 bases on balls). They allowed 67 long balls and they conceded 4.34 runs per 9 innings (9th in MLB). Cincinnati relievers held an inherited score percentage of 30.0% of 92 inherited runners. Their relievers stepped onto the hill in 53 games with high leverage and 56 games with base runners. Finishing with 17 chances for a save, the Reds earned 25 holds and also 8 blown saves. They were ranked 24th in MLB with a save percentage of 52.9%, and they dispatched 168 relievers onto the field last season. Cincinnati had bullpen pitchers enter the contest in 43 save situations and they tallied 9 saves.

De Leon earned a K/BB ratio of 0.9 with 10 total punch outs and an ERA+ of 29. He threw 6.0 innings last year while allowing 9 hits per 9 innings. De Leon gave up 6 total hits while he surrendered 12 earned runs (18.00 ERA). His WHIP sat at 2.83 and he earned a FIP of 7.52 last season. De Leon (4-0 career record) holds a 8.49 earned run average and has surrendered 9.7 hits per 9 innings. His strikeout to walk ratio is 1.42 and he has faced 151 opposing batters during his pro baseball career. He has given up a total of 28 ER's while holding a WHIP of 1.888 and having a FIP of 6.9. During his career, De Leon has allowed 32 base knocks while tallying 34 K's in 29 frames.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Pittsburgh (+120)

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