New York Mets vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction, 9/5/2025 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: New York Mets vs Cincinnati Reds

Date: Friday, September 5, 2025

Location: Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, OH

TV: FanDuel Sports Network Ohio

Odds/Point Spread: New York (-152) Cincinnati (+126)

The New York Mets (75-65) are on their way to Great American Ball Park on Friday where they will play the Cincinnati Reds (70-70). The moneyline on this contest has New York at -152 and Cincinnati is priced at +126. The total is set at 9. The expected starting pitchers will be David Peterson and Andrew Abbott.

New York is slugging .431 and have been called out on strikes 1,114 times, while being walked on 497 occasions. They have 658 runs batted in as well as 1,185 base knocks on the year, while their team batting average is sitting at .251. The Mets have earned 231 two-baggers as a team and have hit 193 baseballs out of the stadium. They have 674 runs scored while holding a team OBP of .330. As a team, the New York Mets are putting up 4.8 runs per contest, which ranks them 9th in the league.

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They have a K/BB ratio of 2.44 and their pitching staff holds a collective WHIP of 1.32. Mets pitchers have allowed 125 home runs and 605 total runs (15th in the league). New York has conceded 1,149 base knocks (8.3 per 9 innings) as well as 539 earned runs. The Mets have compiled a team earned run average of 3.91 this season (13th in MLB), and their staff has rung up 1,203 hitters. They have walked 493 players from the other team and their FIP sits at 3.86 as a unit this season.

The Mets have sent 458 relievers to the hill on the year. The relievers have inherited 226 base runners this season and 34.1% of them crossed home plate. They have recorded 37 saves so far this season and have not converted 24 of their 61 save chances. The Mets bullpen have a save percentage of 60.7% and have stepped onto the mound in 147 save situations. The relief pitchers have earned 86 holds on the year (8th in the league). Mets bullpen pitchers have entered the contest with players on base 151 times and also have had 166 appearances in high leverage situations.

The Minnesota Twins have a tally of 3,720 putouts this year, as well as 1,259 assists and 67 errors. Their fielding rate is holding at .987 which is 11th in baseball, and have 105 double plays. The Mets have converted 69.0% of baseballs in play into outs out of 11,160 innings on the diamond, ranking them 23rd in professional baseball.

Peterson has taken the hill for 606 innings and is sitting with 600 strikeouts so far in his pro baseball career. Peterson (36-29 win-loss record in his career) sits with a FIP of 3.91 and he has faced 2,590 batters during his time in the major leagues. His ERA is 3.97 (267 ER's allowed) and he has a WHIP of 1.358. He has allowed 568 base hits (8.4 hits per nine innings) and has 255 free passes.

The Cincinnati Reds have earned a team on-base percentage of .318 in addition to a team batting average of .248 so far this year. They have been called out on strikes on 1,216 occasions (8th in baseball) and have totaled 1,173 hits. Cincinnati has accumulated 138 home runs this season as well as 598 runs batted in. The Reds have a team slugging percentage of .393 and they average 4.53 runs per contest (13th in baseball). They have tallied 229 doubles, while walking 456 times as well as scoring 634 runs.

The Cincinnati pitching staff have relinquished 607 runs so far this season while having a team ERA of 3.95 (544 earned runs yielded). They have given up 166 home runs and they concede 4.41 runs per 9 innings (16th in baseball). The Reds are sitting with a team WHIP of 1.250 in addition to having a FIP of 4.16 as a pitching staff for the year. They currently have a K/BB ratio of 8.60 (1,186 strikeouts vs 438 walks). They come in at 8th in MLB as a staff in total hits surrendered with 1,111.

Cincinnati has called on bullpen pitchers to step onto the mound in 52 save opportunities and they have come away with 32 saves. They are ranked 20th in MLB with a save rate of 61.5%, and they have dispatched 481 relievers to the hill over the course of the season. Their relief pitchers have stepped onto the mound 142 times in high leverage situations and on 127 occasions with base runners. Cincinnati relief pitchers hold an inherited score rate of 32.8% out of 189 inherited runners. Sitting with 142 save situations, the Reds have tallied 88 holds and also 20 blown saves.

In 11,157 innings on the field, the Reds are sitting with a defensive efficiency of 70.7% (8th in pro baseball). The Cincinnati Reds have gotten 90 double plays and own a fielding percentage of .984 (26th in pro baseball). The Reds have accrued 1,059 assists, 80 errors and have earned a total of 3,719 putouts this season.

Thus far in his career, Abbott has surrendered 343 hits while tallying 359 K's in 386 innings pitched. He has allowed a total of 145 earned runs while earning a WHIP of 1.238 and being the owner of a FIP of 3.3. He has a K/BB ratio of 2.66 and he has gone up against 1,611 opposing hitters in his pro baseball career. Abbott (26-21 record in his career) is the owner of a 3.38 earned run average while surrendering 8.0 hits per nine innings.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take New York (-152)

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