San Diego Padres vs New York Mets Prediction, 9/17/2025 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: San Diego Padres vs New York Mets

Date: Wednesday, September 17, 2025

Location: Citi Field in Queens, NY

TV: Sportsnet New York

Odds/Point Spread: San Diego (-210) New York (+172)

Citi Field is the location where the New York Mets (77-73) will try to defeat the San Diego Padres (82-68) on Wednesday. The odds on this game have San Diego at -210 and New York is coming in at +172. The over/under is 8.5. The starting pitchers will be Nick Pivetta and David Peterson.

The Padres have hit 242 two-baggers as a team and have knocked 135 balls out of the stadium. San Diego is slugging .388 and have struck out 1,065 times, while taking a walk on 478 occasions. As a team, the San Diego Padres are scoring 4.3 runs per contest, which ranks them 20th in baseball. They have compiled 604 runs batted in in addition to 1,262 base knocks on the year, while their batting average comes in at .252. They have earned 641 runs and have an OBP of .321.

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The Padres are sitting with a team ERA of 3.64 this season (3rd in MLB), and they have rung up 1,312 hitters. Padres pitchers have surrendered 161 long balls and 578 runs in total (2nd in the league). They have walked 484 players from the other team and their FIP sits at 3.98 as a squad this year. San Diego has given up 1,109 base hits (7.5 per 9 innings) and 536 earned runs. Their K/BB ratio is 2.71 and the pitching staff holds a collective WHIP of 1.20.

The Padres relief pitchers have accumulated a save rate of 74.2% and stepped onto the hill in 163 save situations. The relievers have inherited 242 base runners for the season with 29.3% of those players crossed the plate. Padres relief pitchers have entered the game with players on base 171 times in addition to having 197 appearances in high leverage situations. The Padres have dispatched 529 relievers to the hill for the season. The relievers are sitting with 96 holds for the season (6th in MLB). They have 46 saves on the campaign and have blown 16 of 62 save chances.

The San Diego Padres are sitting with 3,978 putouts on the campaign, as well as 1,132 assists and 70 errors. Their fielding percentage sits at .986 which has them sitting 13th in pro baseball, and they have turned 106 double plays. The Padres have turned 71.7% of balls hit into play into outs in their 11,934 innings, which has them ranked 2nd in pro baseball.

Pivetta (69-76 career record) holds a FIP of 4.40 while he has faced 5,061 opposing batters in the major leagues. He has allowed 1,096 base hits (8.2 hits per 9 innings) and has had 422 walks. His earned run average is 4.47 (596 ER's allowed) and he has a career WHIP of 1.265. Pivetta has pitched in 1,200 innings and has accounted for 1,319 punch outs in his career.

The New York Mets have compiled an on-base percentage of .327 in addition to a team batting average of .249 on the season. They have struck out on 1,219 occasions (22nd in MLB) and have earned 1,257 base knocks. New York has accounted for 203 home runs for the year to go along with 686 runs batted in. The Mets hold a team slugging percentage of .426 and they score 4.69 runs per outing (11th in the league). They have 245 doubles, while taking a walk 525 times as well as earning 704 runs.

The Mets have a WHIP of 1.337 and have a FIP of 3.89 as a team this season. They rank 17th in baseball as a staff in total hits allowed with 1,243. The New York pitching staff have surrendered 658 runs over the course of the season while having an ERA of 4.01 (591 earned runs allowed). Their strikeout to walk ratio sits at 8.70 (1,285 strikeouts against 528 bases on balls). They have allowed 135 long balls and they concede 4.47 runs per 9 innings (18th in MLB).

With 157 save situations, the Mets have 92 holds and 27 blown saves. New York has had bullpen pitchers step onto the mound in 65 save opportunities and they have converted 38 saves. Their relief pitchers have taken the field 178 times in high leverage situations in addition to 161 occasions with runners on. New York relievers have an inherited score rate of 34.9% of 241 inherited runners. They are currently ranked 23rd in baseball holding a save percentage of 58.5%, and they have sent 490 relief pitchers to the mound this season.

Out of their 11,925 innings on the field, the Mets hold a defensive efficiency of 68.7% (25th in baseball). The New York Mets have turned 113 double plays and own a fielding percentage of .987 (10th in pro baseball). The Mets have racked up 1,348 assists, 70 errors and have earned a total of 3,975 putouts during this campaign.

During his career, Peterson has conceded 582 base knocks while he has totaled 612 strikeouts in 616 innings pitched. He has surrendered a total of 274 earned runs while earning a WHIP of 1.362 and having a FIP of 3.9. His K/BB ratio is 2.38 and he has faced 2,636 hitters during his career. Peterson (37-29 career mark) holds a 4.00 earned run average and has given up 8.5 hits per nine innings.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take New York (+172)

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