Seattle Mariners vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction, 10/12/2025 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Seattle Mariners vs Toronto Blue Jays

Date: Sunday, October 12, 2025

Location: Rogers Centre in Toronto, ON

TV: FOX

Odds/Point Spread: Seattle (+125) Toronto (-150)

The Seattle Mariners (90-72) are hitting the road to Rogers Centre on Sunday where they will meet the Toronto Blue Jays (94-68) in Game 1 of the ALCS. The odds on this game have the Mariners at +125 and the Blue Jays open at -150. The total comes in at 7. The expected starting pitchers will be Luis Castillo and Kevin Gausman.

As a squad, the Seattle Mariners are compiling 4.7 runs per outing, which ranks them 10th in the league. They have a total of 766 runs and hold an on-base percentage of .320. The Mariners have accounted for 234 two-baggers as a team and have smacked 238 balls out of the stadium. They have 734 runs batted in as well as 1,345 hits over the course of the season, and their average at the plate is sitting at .244. Seattle has a slugging % of .420 and have struck out 1,446 times, while being walked on 544 occasions.

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The Mariners hold a team earned run average of 3.87 this year (13th in the league), and their staff has rung up 1,426 hitters. Mariners pitchers have yielded 192 home runs in addition to 694 runs in total (17th in the league). Their pitching staff has walked 454 batters and their FIP sits at 3.98 as a squad over the course of the season. Seattle has allowed 1,331 hits (8.2 per 9 innings) in addition to 629 earned runs. They have a K/BB ratio of 3.14 and their pitching staff has a collective WHIP of 1.22.

The Mariners bullpen have a save percentage of 62.3% and have stepped onto the mound in 159 save situations. The relief pitchers have inherited 147 runners on the season and 25.2% of those players ended up scoring. Mariners bullpen pitchers have gone to the mound with runners on base 132 times and also have had 216 appearances in high leverage situations. The Mariners have sent 550 relievers to the hill so far this season. The relief pitchers have a total of 90 holds this season (13th in the league). They have compiled 43 saves over the course of the season and have blown 26 of 69 chances to get a save.

The San Francisco Giants have earned 4,388 putouts at this point in the season, as well as 1,355 assists and 69 errors. Their fielding percentage is holding at .988 which puts them in 7th in pro baseball, and they have turned 118 double plays. The Mariners have turned 70.3% of balls in play into outs out of their 13,164 innings on the diamond, ranking them 12th in MLB.

Castillo has thrown 1,410 innings and has accounted for 1,493 K's so far in his pro baseball career. Castillo (84-84 career mark) sits with a FIP of 3.50 while he has gone up against 5,824 hitters in the major leagues. His earned run average is 3.55 (557 ER's allowed) and he has a career WHIP of 1.178. He has allowed 1,208 hits (7.7 hits per 9 innings) and has had 453 free passes.

Toronto has accounted for 191 home runs for the season as well as 771 RBIs. They have hit 294 doubles, while getting a free base 520 times as well as recording 798 runs. The Toronto Blue Jays have compiled an OBP of .333 and a batting average of .265 on the year. The Blue Jays hold a slugging percentage of .427 and they earn 4.93 runs per contest (4th in MLB). They have been rung up on 1,099 occasions (29th in baseball) and have a total of 1,461 hits.

The Toronto pitching staff have given up 721 runs this year while having an ERA of 4.18 (668 earned runs yielded). They have given up 209 home runs and they surrender 4.51 runs per 9 innings (19th in MLB). The Blue Jays have a team WHIP of 1.273 and are the owners of a FIP of 4.27 as a unit on the campaign. They have earned a strikeout to walk ratio of 8.90 (1,430 strikeouts against 517 free passes). They have a ranking of 14th in MLB as a staff in total hits allowed with 1,313.

Toronto has called on relievers to step onto the hill in 65 save opportunities and they have walked away with 42 saves. They are currently ranked 13th in MLB with a save percentage of 64.6%, and they have dispatched 570 relief pitchers to the hill so far this season. Their relief pitchers have stepped onto the hill 156 times in high leverage situations and on 178 occasions with base runners. Toronto relief pitchers hold an inherited score percentage of 27.6% out of their 254 inherited base runners. With 168 save situations, the Blue Jays have compiled 96 holds in addition to 23 blown saves.

Out of their 12,942 innings on the field, the Blue Jays have earned a defensive efficiency of 70.0% (14th in professional baseball). The Toronto Blue Jays have gotten 118 double plays and have accounted for a fielding rate of .985 (18th in pro baseball). The Blue Jays have accrued 1,272 assists, 86 errors and have 4,314 putouts this year.

In his MLB career, Gausman has surrendered 1,835 base hits while earning 1,954 punch outs in 1,911 innings pitched. He has conceded 810 ER's while earning a WHIP of 1.240 and having a FIP of 3.8. He has a strikeout to walk ratio of 3.65 and he has faced 7,986 hitters in his career. Gausman (112-113 career record) has earned a 3.81 earned run average while surrendering 8.6 hits per nine innings.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Toronto (-150)

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