Washington Nationals vs Chicago Cubs Prediction, 3/26/2026 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Washington Nationals vs Chicago Cubs

Date: Thursday, March 26, 2026

Location: Wrigley Field in Chicago, IL

TV: Marquee

Odds/Point Spread: Washington (+162) Chicago (-196)

The Washington Nationals (66-96 last year) are en route to Wrigley Field on Thursday where they will compete against the Chicago Cubs (92-70 last season). The moneyline on this matchup has Washington at +162 while Chicago is priced at -196. The over/under has been set at 8.5. The pitchers taking the mound will be Cade Cavalli and Matthew Boyd.

Washington had a slugging percentage of .390 and were called out on strikes 1,351 times, while being walked on 443 occasions. They compiled 657 runs batted in in addition to 1,314 base knocks last year, while their team batting average was .242. The Nationals accrued 259 doubles as a unit and knocked 161 balls out of the park. They had 687 runs while having a team on-base percentage of .304. As a team, the Washington Nationals put up 4.2 runs per outing, which ranked them 20th in MLB.

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The Nationals compiled a team earned run average of 5.35 over the course of last year (29th in MLB), and the staff struck out 1,248 batters. Nationals pitchers allowed 214 long balls and also 899 runs (29th in baseball). Their pitching staff walked 566 opposing batters and their FIP was 4.72 as a squad in the prior season. Washington surrendered 1,491 hits (9.4 per 9 innings) in addition to 846 earned runs. Their strikeout to walk ratio was at 2.20 and the pitching staff recorded a WHIP of 1.45.

The Nationals bullpen had a save rate of 64.9% and stepped onto the hill in 134 save situations. The relievers inherited 277 runners for the prior year and 39.0% of those runners crossed home plate. Nationals pitchers went to the mound with runners on 167 times and also had 134 outings in high leverage situations. The Nationals dispatched 583 relievers to the mound over the course of last season. The bullpen racked up 76 holds over the course of last season (25th in the league). They compiled 37 saves over the course of last year and missed out on 20 of 57 save chances.

The Washington Nationals amassed 4,270 putouts for the prior year, in addition to 1,404 assists and 94 errors. Their fielding percentage finished at .984 which was 25th in professional baseball, and accumulated 132 double plays. The Nationals transformed 67.9% of balls hit into play into outs out of their 12,810 innings on the field, which ranked them 29th in professional baseball.

Cavalli has pitched in 52 innings and has 46 strikeouts during his career. His ERA is 5.16 (30 earned runs allowed) and he has a WHIP of 1.530. He has surrendered 63 hits (10.8 hits per nine innings) with 17 free passes. Cavalli (3-2 career win-loss mark) holds a FIP of 5.09 and he has gone up against 242 hitters in the major leagues.

The Cubs held a slugging % of .430 and they averaged 4.90 runs per game (5th in baseball). They had 267 doubles, while taking a walk 554 times and recording 793 runs. Chicago had 223 home runs last season in addition to 771 runs batted in. They struck out on 1,277 occasions (25th in MLB) and notched a total of 1,371 base knocks. The Chicago Cubs tallied a team on-base percentage of .320 as well as a batting average of .249 for the previous season.

The Cubs held a team WHIP of 1.177 in addition to having a FIP of 4.16 as a staff last season. They ranked 10th in MLB as a staff in total hits allowed with 1,284. The Chicago pitching staff conceded 649 runs over the course of the prior season while having an ERA of 3.79 (605 earned runs yielded). Their strikeout to walk ratio came in at 7.90 (1,265 strikeouts vs 405 walks). They gave up 202 dingers and they yielded 4.07 runs per 9 innings (8th in MLB).

Ending the season with 177 save situations, the Cubs accrued 110 holds and 20 blown saves. Chicago called on relievers to take the mound in 64 save opportunities and they earned 44 saves. Their relievers took the field 158 times in high leverage situations and on 101 occasions with runners on. Chicago relievers held an inherited score rate of 33.8% out of their 142 inherited runners. They ranked 4th in baseball holding a save percentage of 68.8%, and they dispatched 523 bullpen pitchers to the hill last season.

In 12,915 innings played, the Cubs had a defensive efficiency of 71.9% (2nd in MLB). The Chicago Cubs had 117 double plays and owned a fielding percentage of .989 (4th in the majors). The Cubs had 1,342 assists, 61 errors and accounted for 4,305 putouts during the previous year.

Boyd (60-77 win-loss record in his career) is the owner of a 4.58 earned run average while allowing 8.7 hits per nine innings. He has a strikeout to walk ratio of 3.11 and he has faced 4,614 opposing hitters so far in his pro baseball career. He has allowed a total of 553 ER's while earning a WHIP of 1.277 and being the owner of a FIP of 4.5. Thus far in his career, Boyd has allowed 1,053 hits while he has earned 1,045 K's in 1,087 innings.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Parlay's Pundit's Pick: Take Chicago (-196) and under 8.5 runs

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