Brewers at Reds Picks and MLB Betting Odds
by Alan Matthews - 5/10/2013
The NL Central-rival Milwaukee Brewers and Cincinnati Reds will see a lot of each other the rest of the season as Friday night's series opener at Great American Ball Park is the first of 19 meetings this year. Somewhat hard to believe they haven't played in the first six weeks or so.
When they last faced off, a three-game set in Cincinnati from Sept. 25-27 of last season, the Reds dealt the surging Brewers' wild-card playoff hopes pretty much a fatal blow by taking two of three. The Reds, the defending NL Central Champions, won nine of 15 meetings a season ago.
Cincinnati enters off losing two of three at home to Atlanta, the Reds' first home series loss of the year. They are still an excellent 13-6 at Great American Ball Park, the most home wins in the majors. Milwaukee was near the top of the NL Central not too long ago with a 14-11 mark but has lost six of seven since then, including a four-game sweep at the hands of the Cardinals. Friday's game starts a 10-game road trip.
Brewers at Reds Betting Story Lines
The Reds' best player hasn't been spring NL MVP favorite Joey Votto but Shin-Soo Choo, who was acquired in a trade this offseason from the Cleveland Indians (the Diamondbacks were also involved). Choo has been great, leading the team in average (.323), homers (seven), runs (27), total bases (74) and steals (three). He had a two-homer game in Tuesday's win over Atlanta. In fact, Devin Mesoraco and Choo hit back-to-back homers with two outs in the ninth inning for the walk-off win against star Braves closer Craig Kimbrel. It was the first time Reds teammates had done the two-out, back-to-back tying and winning walk-off homers since Aug. 27, 1977 (Johnny Bench hit the winning one).
Cincinnati starts one of the top young pitching prospects in the game in 23-year-old rookie Tony Cingrani (2-0, 2.63). He was called up in mid-April when Reds ace Johnny Cueto went on the disabled list. The Reds had no plans to keep Cingrani in the Show, but he's forced their hand. The lefty out of Rice was totally dominant in his first three starts but wasn't quite as good last time out, allowing four runs on three hits (two homers) and striking out five in six innings of a no-decision at the Chicago Cubs. It was his first start allowing more than two runs and multiple homers while also striking out less than eight. It was the second time the Cubs had seen him this season, so perhaps that played a role. The Brewers haven't.
Everyone knows how good Ryan Braun is (.321, seven homers, 24 RBI), but it's almost amazing what Carlos Gomez has made himself into. He used to be thought of as an all-glove, punch-and-judy hitter. He changed his approach at the plate a year ago and hit .260 with 19 homers. This year, he leads the majors with a .386 average and has six homers, 14 RBI and seven steals. On the other end of the spectrum is second baseman Rickie Weeks, who not once looked like a rising superstar. He's struggling so badly that he was moved to seventh in the lineup for Wednesday's game against Texas. It didn't matter as Weeks went 0-for-3 to see his average drop to .188 with a .291 slugging percentage and 39 strikeouts.
Milwaukee starts ace right-hander Yovani Gallardo (3-1, 4.50). His streak of three straight quality starts ended last time out, allowing four runs and six hits (two homers) in six innings of a loss to St. Louis. They were the first homers Gallardo had allowed since Opening Day. Gallardo started four times against the Reds last year and was 2-2 with a 3.28 ERA and 18 strikeouts in 24.2 innings. He didn't like Great American Ball Park, going 0-2 with a 4.63 ERA with the Reds hitting .303 off him. Three Cincinnati batters give Gallardo fits: Jay Bruce (.414, two homers, eight RBI), Ryan Ludwick (.350, three homers, nine RBI) and Votto (.320, one homer, 10 RBI). Gallardo won't have to deal with Ludwick as he was lost to a dislocated shoulder on Opening Day and remains several weeks from returning.
Brewers at Reds MLB Betting Odds and Trends
At BetOnline, the Reds opened at -150 and the Brewers +140 with the total at 7.5. Milwaukee is 22-10 “over/under” (7-4 on road) and 13-19 on the runline. Cincinnati is 21-13-1 O/U (12-7 at home) and 15-20 on the runline.
The Brewers have won five of their past seven series openers. Milwaukee is 1-5 in its past six Friday games and 1-6 in its past seven against teams with a winning record. The Brewers are 6-1 in Gallardo's past seven road starts and 5-1 in his past six series-opening starts. The Reds are 4-0 in their past four against right-handed starters. They also have won five of their past seven series openers. Cincinnati is 1-5 in its past six after scoring two runs or fewer in its previous game. The over is 8-2 in Milwaukee's past 10 against teams with a winning record. The over is 6-1 in Gallardo's past seven series opening starts. The over is 6-0 in Cincinnati's past six overall. It is 5-1 in the Reds' past six series openers. The over has hit in eight of Gallardo's past 11 starts against Cincinnati. The Brewers are 1-7 in Gallardo's past eight starts in Cincinnati.
Brewers at Reds Picks and Betting Predictions
If you are a Brewers backer you perhaps should start to feel nervous about this team because it is under .500 yet has played a major-league low 11 road games (5-6) so far. That Milwaukee hasn't seen Cingrani should be a major advantage for the Reds, who know Gallardo well. Cincinnati and the over are the pick.
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