Diamondbacks at Rockies Picks and MLB Betting Odds
by Alan Matthews - 5/20/2013
I am pretty shocked that the Arizona Diamondbacks are still in first place in the National League West. But that's the beauty of baseball as you never know what rather no-name team will surprise. The two Los Angeles teams are loaded with superstars and bloated contracts, and both have fallen flat on their faces. The most well-known Snakes player, meanwhile, is probably not a player but manager Kirk Gibson. Although it must be said the first baseman Paul Goldschmidt is one of the best "least-known" players in the majors. He's hitting .333 with 12 homers and 35 RBI.
Colorado also has been a pleasant surprise so far, but I doubt it has the staying power despite a division-best plus-32 run differential. The Rockies can rake when healthy, no doubt, but the pitching simply won't last. On Sunday, the Rockies beat the Giants 5-0 for their third straight win. That was notable because San Francisco was held to five hits. It snapped the Giants streak of eight consecutive games with at least 10 hits, which equaled the longest such streak in the majors this season. It was San Francisco's longest in five years. But that's almost my point. Colorado's starter in that one was Juan Nicasio. Do you really have faith in Juan Nicasio? It was Colorado's first series win over the Giants in two years.
Diamondbacks at Rockies Betting Story Lines
When the top young pitchers in baseball are mentioned, you think of guys like Washington's Stephen Strasburg, the Mets' Matt Harvey and the Cardinals' Shelby Miller, among a few others. Well, Arizona's Patrick Corbin needs to be on any short list. The 22-year-old lefty was just “so-so” as a rookie last season, going 6-8 with a 4.54 ERA in 17 starts. This year he's been dominant with a 6-0 mark and 1.52 ERA in eight starts. That's the third-best ERA in baseball, behind only Clayton Kershaw and Miller. Corbin is the second Arizona lefty to ever start 6-0. You may have heard of the other guy: Randy Johnson.
Corbin takes the mound on Monday. He faced Colorado on April 28 and held the Rockies to two runs and struck out five in 6.2 innings in Arizona's 4-2 win. Corbin hasn't allowed more than two runs yet in a start this season and blanked Atlanta over seven innings last time out. Colorado outfielder Dexter Fowler, who is having a career season, is hitting .625 with three RBI in eight career at-bats against Corbin. Fowler is scorching hot right now with nine hits in his past 15 at-bats.
The Rockies go with Jon Garland (3-4, 4.89), a former Diamondback (among many teams). The 33-year-old has definitely been around the block in the bigs. Colorado really has little choice but to sign guys like Garland because no free-agent pitcher worth anything will ever sign with the Rockies because he thinks Coors Field will wreck his statistics and, thus, value on a next contract. That's also why Colorado almost always goes pitching-heavy in the draft. Garland has been scarily consistent: three straight starts of five innings and allowing three runs and seven hits. In the start before that run, he allowed four runs and eight hits over six innings in a 4-2 loss to Arizona. Yeah, that was opposite Corbin. Arizona's Jason Kubel certainly will be in the lineup as he's hitting .360 with three homers and 11 RBI in 25 at-bats off Garland. Eric Hinske, who doesn't play much usually, is at .350 with three homers and eight RBI in 40 at-bats against Garland.
The Rockies remain without one of their best hitters, outfielder Michael Cuddyer. He hasn't played since May 8 because of a neck injury but should be back this weekend. He's hitting .319 with seven homers and 23 RBI.
Diamondbacks at Rockies MLB Betting Odds and Trends
At WagerWeb, Arizona is -117 and the Rockies -103 with the total at 9.5. The Diamondbacks are 16-26-2 “over/under” (9-12 on road) and 22-22 on the runline. The Rockies are 25-18-1 O/U (11-11 at home) and 25-19 on the runline. Arizona is 2-10 in its past 12 Monday games. The Snakes are 4-1 in their past five against right-handed starters. The Diamondbacks are 8-0 in Corbin's past eight starts as a favorite. The Rockies are 2-9 in their past 11 after a win. They are 1-4 in their past five series openers. The under is 8-1 in Arizona's past nine as a favorite. The over is 9-1 in Corbin's past 10 road starts. The over is 6-0 in Colorado's past six as a dog. The over is 5-2 in Garland's past seven starts. The under is 9-1-1 in the past 11 meetings.
Diamondbacks at Rockies Picks and Betting Prediction
Arizona, the only team left in baseball yet to be shut out this season, is 4-3 against Colorado this season. Five of the games have been decided by a just a run. Obviously, on paper you have to like Arizona here with Corbin. However, he was shelled for 11 runs on 18 hits in nine innings in two starts at Coors Field a season ago. It's just not an easy place to pitch. Thus, I lean Rockies here and certainly the over.
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